The 2023 Russian Coup.

[Raheem]

Remember that the target of his coup was the military leadership, not Putin. He was (mostly) critical of military leadership for misleading Putin, only rarely having harsh words for the ‘boss’.

There are alternative explanations for that, though. For example, he may just have valued his life.

 

[T & P]

It isn't funny really though, is it? Not like the Two Ronnies or Peep Show are funny (or can be.) It's just history repeating itself as tragedy in new but recognisable forms, and there is no end to it. We can only laugh as we're not involved but inattentively watching it like a sometimes compelling TV drama.

People should not expect events in Russia to unfold in ways that we can fully comprehend here. (And yes, I know this as I frequently used to go there 30 years ago, and several times since, blah blah save other posters the time etc.) And in this there's nothing that unique about Russia, as it goes for most of the planet and probably always will.

That his death is unlikely to either change the eventual outcome of the war nor shorten it does not detract from the fact that he was a despicable piece of shit and the world is tonight a slightly better place without him. That’s certainly a pleasant thought if not necessarily laugh out loud funny.

His apparent cockiness or perhaps delusional fog that led him to believe that he wasn’t a marked man regardless of Putin’s assurances, or that he was but could get away with showing his face in Russia again without consequences is the really funny part.

 

[Raheem]

Think it's been about a year since anybody mentioned Putin's health

Can't be getting any better, then.

 

[Dogsauce]

So you don't think he'd weighed up the inevitable threats to his family beforehand and these came as a complete surprise?

You think he was expecting help from the army? What help? Where's the evidence they were going to help but backed out?

If he was already angry with the military heads why would he have expected help from the army?

Surovkin was in his camp, hence the house arrest and dismissal. Rumours of other senior military people too. So some help was likely expected.

 

[planetgeli]

Russia's main TV channel devoted 40 seconds to Prigozhin's death. It was the 14th out of 17 items in a 53-minutes news programme.

 

[DaveCinzano]

Russia's main TV channel devoted 40 seconds to Prigozhin's death. It was the 14th out of 17 items in a 53-minutes news programme.

What dark shit was being buried at 15th, 16th and 17th?

 

[dilute micro]

So you don't think he'd weighed up the inevitable threats to his family beforehand and these came as a complete surprise?

You think he was expecting help from the army? What help? Where's the evidence they were going to help but backed out?

If he was already angry with the military heads why would he have expected help from the army?

No. Yes, from the communication with Surovikin and the others he was talking to before he set off for Moscow. Prigozhin would have had to have help by doing nothing to stop him and then to assume authority afterwards. And...because he was only angry with Shoigu and Gerazimov.

 

[RD2003]

So you don't think he'd weighed up the inevitable threats to his family beforehand and these came as a complete surprise?

You think he was expecting help from the army? What help? Where's the evidence they were going to help but backed out?

If he was already angry with the military heads why would he have expected help from the army?

Again with apologies to certain posters, but I had been in Moscow for several weeks when the attempted coup took place in August 1991, as well as for a couple of months the previous winter. The seeds of the August coup were set the previous December, when Gorbachev was pressured, as the economy disintegrated and society dissolved into a remarkably quiet and largely non-violent chaos, into appointing several so-called hardliners (who didn't turn out to be anything of the kind, at least in their actions) into government. This was massive news in the SU, with the newly liberalised Soviet media bitterly divided on the issue, reflecting the divisions in the ruling elites. The groundwork was clearly prepared over the next eight months, and by the time the coup came those who mattered had already picked sides as, even if they might not have known when, they knew it was coming.

Nothing that happened in August '91 seemed spontaneous*, but the western media-or at least CNN, which was all that was available in Moscow, and only if you knew where to access it, took everything at face value, just as in June this year. And I experienced the coup as a surreal event (no drugs but plenty of vodka and beer-which under Perestroika had to be obtained largely on the black market, the increasing prevalence of which was one reason given for the coup.) It was real enough, however, although the surprising half-heartedness of it has led not only me to wonder if it was staged in order to break the political deadlock and pave the way for economic 'shock therapy.' Of course, the real coup came in October '93. Hardly anybody died in August '91, but when the, at the time (before NATO pissed him off) western poodle Yeltsin bombarded his own parliament to enable de-facto rule by decree, and turned central Moscow into a war zone, many died, only for it to quickly backfire and pave the way for the inevitable reaction against neoliberal-inspired falling living standards and life-expectancy, and the authoritarian figure which turned out to be Putin.

The point, however, is in the preparation. The differences between '91 and 2023 appear marked.


*There is also speculation that the overthrow of Ceausescu in '89 was far from the spontaneous uprsing it was portrayed as, as opposed to a Soviet-inspired coup, with middle-ranking officials of the Rumanian CP pushed to the fore. Ceausescu, with his resistance to Gorbachev-style reform, had long been regarded as an enemy among those who had maneouvred their way into influence in Moscow. Bucharest was apparently full of Russians in the weeks leading up to the 'uprising.' Naturally there had to be a few thousand deaths to make it appear authentic. This is not to say that most of those on either side didn't believe in what they were fighting for.

 

[dilute micro]

Remember that the target of his coup was the military leadership, not Putin. He was (mostly) critical of military leadership for misleading Putin, only rarely having harsh words for the ‘boss’. Given his closeness to Putin maybe he felt protected? Maybe he expected others to join his mutiny, yet they didn’t step up (there were reports of families being threatened, which may have curtailed this). After delivering Bakhmut he may have thought he had some status he could bank on. That may have been what kept him alive after the march on Moscow halted.

His death might not be at Putin’s hand, there are other competing factions in the military and security services with the motive/means to do it. I guess we might get some indication when we hear the official state narrative (and how the sanctioned media put a spin on it), whether there is an admission that he was shot down, whether it’s portrayed as an accident or a deliberate act, or if something completely different is made up and the finger pointed at Ukraine/Jewish space lasers or whatever.

Yeah but there's no way around Putin. Prigozhin's issue was with not being supplied ammunition and then what he said was an attack on Wagner by the Russian forces that killed 2000 of his troops. Anyone in his position would look to Putin.

 

[RD2003]

That his death is unlikely to either change the eventual outcome of the war nor shorten it does not detract from the fact that he was a despicable piece of shit and the world is tonight a slightly better place without him. That’s certainly a pleasant thought if not necessarily laugh out loud funny.

His apparent cockiness or perhaps delusional fog that led him to believe that he wasn’t a marked man regardless of Putin’s assurances, or that he was but could get away with showing his face in Russia again without consequences is the really funny part.

It isn't a slightly better place, though, is it? If only for the fact that another Prigozhin-type figure will be along soon. People with the same or similar mentalities exist everywhere and even get to run countries, including our own-where historical circumstances dictate conditions which keep them under control, at least for now. |Not so in much of the world, and this isn't set to change, especially as the world's multiple, insoluble crises converge. Such people walk among us, and may even live on your street or mine, even if they lack the ability or opportunity to do much about it, or else have to act on a much smaller scale. Lucy Letby is, I suppose, one example. She may spend the rest of her life in jail, but we are guaranteed to see her like again.

You can only find any of this funny if you have a decidedly black sense of humour...

 

[Raheem]

Short but sweet:

View attachment 388544

Really? Can music be that bad?

 

[RD2003]

Anyway...

'Keir Giles, a Russia analyst at the London-based Chatham House, has told the Washington Post: “Until we know for certain it’s the right Prigozhin, let’s not be surprised if he pops up shortly in a new video from Africa.”

Russia’s civil aviation authority has said that Prigozhin was on board the plane that crashed, and that there were no survivors. But that is as much confirmation as we have.'

 

[editor]

I feel sorry for the innocent parties who appear to have been murdered. People like the pilot and any flight crew.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Remember that the target of his coup was the military leadership, not Putin. He was (mostly) critical of military leadership for misleading Putin, only rarely having harsh words for the ‘boss’. Given his closeness to Putin maybe he felt protected? Maybe he expected others to join his mutiny, yet they didn’t step up (there were reports of families being threatened, which may have curtailed this). After delivering Bakhmut he may have thought he had some status he could bank on. That may have been what kept him alive after the march on Moscow halted.

His death might not be at Putin’s hand, there are other competing factions in the military and security services with the motive/means to do it. I guess we might get some indication when we hear the official state narrative (and how the sanctioned media put a spin on it), whether there is an admission that he was shot down, whether it’s portrayed as an accident or a deliberate act, or if something completely different is made up and the finger pointed at Ukraine/Jewish space lasers or whatever.

"The king's evil advisors" have been the target of coups and rebellions for centuries and yes it means your going after the king your just attempting to disguise your attempt to grab power behind appeals that your not going to change the existing order just return to tradition (at best it means you now advise the king with a king to his head to obey you)

 

[Dogsauce]

Anyhow, once again this shows that cutting a deal with Putin is a bad idea. Those pushing for negotiations with the invaders take note, as if it were necessary.

 

[teqniq]

Inclined to agree with this:

 

[Pickman's model]

Inclined to agree with this:

View attachment 388577

Yes, after all if anyone sees the situation five moves ahead it'll be kasparov

 

[Pickman's model]

Anyhow, once again this shows that cutting a deal with Putin is a bad idea. Those pushing for negotiations with the invaders take note, as if it were necessary.

It certainly shows crossing putin is a bad idea

 

[ska invita]

Anyhow, once again this shows that cutting a deal with Putin is a bad idea. Those pushing for negotiations with the invaders take note, as if it were necessary.

when this war ends it wont be done on the hope that Putin holds his word to some nonsense sentiment expressed at a meeting, it will be because the agreed border between ukraine and russia will become heavily militarised and fenced off, and from current signals the suggestion is it will be protected by NATO forces (as opposed to UN)...

 

[LDC]

when this war ends it wont be done on the hope that Putin holds his word to some nonsense sentiment expressed at a meeting, it will be because the agreed border between ukraine and russia will become heavily militarised and fenced off, and from current signals the suggestion is it will be protected by NATO forces (as opposed to UN)...

Where have you seen the suggestion the Ukraine/Russia ceasefire line will be enforced by NATO troops?

 

[Pickman's model]

Where have you seen the suggestion the Ukraine/Russia ceasefire line will be enforced by NATO troops?

He's got quite the imagination

 

[Pickman's model]

when this war ends it wont be done on the hope that Putin holds his word to some nonsense sentiment expressed at a meeting, it will be because the agreed border between ukraine and russia will become heavily militarised and fenced off, and from current signals the suggestion is it will be protected by NATO forces (as opposed to UN)...

The agreed border. The 2013 border? The de facto situation now?

 

[Magnus McGinty]

I would imagine that Russian special agents would have confirmed he was on the plane before exterminating him and everyone else on board. Else they end up looking ridiculous.

 

[Pickman's model]

I would imagine that Russian special agents would have confirmed he was on the plane before exterminating him and everyone else on board. Else they end up looking ridiculous.

I thought they were used to looking ridiculous

 

[bimble]

'Keir Giles, a Russia analyst at the London-based Chatham House, has told the Washington Post: “Until we know for certain it’s the right Prigozhin, let’s not be surprised if he pops up shortly in a new video from Africa.”

Russia’s civil aviation authority has said that Prigozhin was on board the plane that crashed, and that there were no survivors. But that is as much confirmation as we have.'

If I were watching my death being reported all over the world when I wasn’t in fact dead, imagine it would be quite hard to just politely not bother mentioning it, keep busy and then at some point make a video from Africa. But then I’m not a master strategist .

 

[two sheds]

Unless you had a false beard on at the time

 

[ska invita]

Where have you seen the suggestion the Ukraine/Russia ceasefire line will be enforced by NATO troops?

Ive posted two links in the last week, one from Zelenskys adviser Oleksiy Arestovych and the other from a NATO chief of staff Stian Jenssen who both suggested very publicly that an option is for Ukraine to give up territory and get NATO membership in return. Both widley reported

 

[Pickman's model]

Unless you had a false beard on at the time

I think bimble like Prigozhin would stand out like a sore thumb if disguised in a false beard

 

[Pickman's model]

Ive posted two links in the last week, one from Zelenskys adviser Oleksiy Arestovych and the other from a NATO chief of staff Stian Jenssen who both suggested very publicly that an option is for Ukraine to give up territory and get NATO membership in return. Both widley reported

But not I note saying anything about nato troops patrolling the border with russia

 

[JimW]

If I were watching my death being reported all over the world when I wasn’t in fact dead, imagine it would be quite hard to just politely not bother mentioning it, keep busy and then at some point make a video from Africa. But then I’m not a master strategist .

You'd probably want to wait until you'd disembarked from your next flight before tipping off the FSB.