The 2023 Russian Coup.

[SpookyFrank]

Yet Prigozhin is popular, particularly with soldiers, for appearing to fight their corner, no matter how much that is just rhetorical drivel (remember Wagner often employed as ‘blocking troops’ shooting their own side if they retreat, and fed many into the ’meat grinder’).

And now it looks like Wagner troops are to be folded into the regular army. I'm sure they'll be very popular

 

[SpookyFrank]

Feels somewhat gamed so that Wagner leader can leave with head held high

So high that it's no longer attached to his neck.

 

[The39thStep]

Aside from the fact that Wagners CEO is one of the most sanctioned people in the world , the issue of Wagner war crimes and the reparations nothing springs to mind really .

Actually, it appears that some of these aren't really that important in the bigger scheme of things

 

[cupid_stunt]

I don't think his high profile affords him any protection at all. If anything, the opposite. If Politkovskaya, Litvinenko, Salisbury etc, show us anything, it's that Vlad's perfectly happy to order hits that are carried out in such ways that leave no doubt as to who commissioned them. He wants everyone to know that fucking with him has serious cosequences and Yevgeny has just fucked with him in spectacular fashion. Putin has to do him in or look even weaker than he does now. Prigozhin will be, quite rightly, shitting his pants every time the doorbell rings or a car backfires. My money's on a firey statement hit involving a bomb.

I don't fancy the chances of the "pardoned" Wagner fighters either, at least not the commanders.

It's so weird, Prigozhin certainly does look like a death man walking, he knows Lukashenko is Putin's puppet, so in theory he must know Belarus is not a safe place for him, unless he has some insurance, in the form of something he's got on Putin, which is lodged with others, to be released if something happens to him. That would certainly explain why Putin has allowed him to be so out spoken over the months.

There's just so many unanswered questions, it's been interesting watching some of the experts on Russia being rolled out by Sky & the BBC this morning, people that have studied Russia for decades, former UK military top brass, a former M16 officer that worked in Russia, and no one seems to have a grip on what exactly has happened and how it will play out over the coming weeks and months.

They all tended to agree that it has weaken Putin, that it will weaken the frontline fighting force, and impact on moral, after Prigozhin called out the lies behind the reasons for the war, it's all a question of to what degree all this will impact on the war and Putin's grip on power.

Basically, Putin has been bitten by his own mad dog, but there's no way of knowing how deep the wounds are, and whether they will get infected.

 

[tim]

For sure. As I said earlier, there's still an Act still to come, to see who benefits. At the moment, in contrast to any normal play, we're left guessing because BOTH protagonists look beat.

One always wins. I'm backing the man with a country and the FSB behind him still (probably).

Yes, Lukashenko.

 

[TopCat]

Well yesterday was certainly a day for drinking beer and reading the news.

 

[Tanya1982]

Must be devastating to only have Belarus to be exiled to. It’s a come down from the days of two years ago when such a person could pretty much have their pick of lovely locations in which to live in paranoid fear but material comfort.

 

[tim]

Too many people have, particularly since the end of Feb 2022, been excited by the idea of Russia as the mythical 'Upper Volta with missiles' (as if the missiles don't matter.) They have, it seems, never considered actual Russian society and how it, however cynically, views its government and state, nor met for example, 'liberal' Russian punk rockers who argue vehemently that blacks in Russia should be chased out of the country or be killed, nor people who rallied behind Yeltsin in 1991, '93 and '96 who basically agreed with them. Under the stealthily growing dictatorship of Putin, a man endorsed by Yeltsin personally, and the inevitable outcome of his chaotic rule, the situation has only worsened.

There absolutely is 'another Russia,' but it's a minority pursuit, a bit like fell-running or butterfly collecting. And Russia retains a formidable force of internal repression (as Prighozin has just apparently remembered), and is, whatever the online war watchers may think, not going to back down in Ukraine, even if it means laying waste to the place. Ukraine is, for enough Russians for it to matter, the final straw. If in doubt, all we have to do is wait.

Same old, same old. "I went on a long weekend trip to Perm with Intourist in 1986 and that makes me an expert."

 

[cupid_stunt]

And now it looks like Wagner troops are to be folded into the regular army. I'm sure they'll be very popular

It's going to be interesting what happens to the Wagner troops, they thought Prigozhin had their backs and now he's buggering off to Belarus, apparently leaving them behind, I wonder how many will sign up to the regular army, and how many may melt away, or be sent somewhere else in the world to carry on making money for Prigozhin.

 

[The39thStep]

My assessment: putin looks weak, his MoD even worse and the people prigozhin didn't like are all gone.
Lukashenko comes out looking strong, independent, the peacemaker we need.
Prigozhin is a dead man walking.
No matter what happens this is going to be a huge boost to Ukraine.
The Wagner will not just go back to Ukraine and get stuck into business as usual. There are long repercussions to an action of this scale.
Ukraine counteroffensive will increase in confidence.
Russia more likely than ever to destroy Zaporzhzhia NPP or launch tactical nuke in order to fuck then up

The same peacemaker Lukashenko who said it would only take one phone call to Putin to coordinate with Russia launching a nuclear strike with the weapons on Belarus territory?

 

[MrCurry]

A lot of people seem to think Prigozhin is off to meet a sticky end, but this is a guy who knows the Russian system and has traded his way up to a position of power and wealth (and seems very motivated by money), so it doesn’t seem likely to me he would naively accept a “deal” which in reality becomes exit from this life.

The guy was holding a knife to the throat of the Russian state and with his troops advancing on Moscow certainly had leverage to cut a very nice deal for himself, so isn‘t it more likely he’s agreed to massive personal enrichment and what he judged were sufficient guarantees of his own safety and those of his troops? Perhaps he will find a position of power and influence in Belarus…

 

[RD2003]

dp

 

[RD2003]

Same old, same old. "I went in a long weekend to Perm with Intourist in 1986 and that makes me an expert."

 

[tim]

Fair enough, but I don't think current events can be fully understood without a wider analysis.

Something you clearly are not capable of. Rehashing hackneyed stereotypes is not "wider analysis".

 

[Elpenor]

So high that it's no longer attached to his neck.

Well it was Saturday night

 

[RD2003]

Something you clearly are not capable of. Rehashing hackneyed stereotypes is not "wider analysis".

I'd love to be you. Even as events unremittingly prove you wrong, you stick to your guns as if nothing happened.

 

[Idris2002]

 

[ska invita]

it's been interesting watching some of the experts on Russia being rolled out by Sky & the BBC this morning, people that have studied Russia for decades, former UK military top brass, a former M16 officer that worked in Russia, and no one seems to have a grip on what exactly has happened and how it will play out over the coming weeks and months. They all tended to agree that it has weaken Putin, that it will weaken the frontline fighting force, and impact on moral, after Prigozhin called out the lies behind the reasons for the war, it's all a question of to what degree all this will impact on the war and Putin's grip on power.

No offence, but maybe watching an endless parade of Mi6 cunts and British army professional murderers with back to back illegal wars and the ghost corpses of millions piled around them parading on that fantastic impartial institution that is british tv isnt the best place to get a balanced idea of what is happening in Russia. These 'experts' have their own active role in creating this war, and the next one, and the one after that.

 

[The39thStep]

No offence, but maybe watching an endless parade of Mi6 cunts and British army professional murderers with back to back illegal wars and the ghost corpses of millions piled around them parading on that fantastic impartial institution that is british tv isnt the best place to get a balanced idea of what is happening in Russia. These 'experts' have their own active role in creating this war, and the next one, and the one after that.

The number of experts on Russia probably now exceeds the number of people who claim to have been, at one time , season ticket holders at Old Trafford.

 

[Magnus McGinty]

A lot of people seem to think Prigozhin is off to meet a sticky end, but this is a guy who knows the Russian system and has traded his way up to a position of power and wealth (and seems very motivated by money), so it doesn’t seem likely to me he would naively accept a “deal” which in reality becomes exit from this life.

The guy was holding a knife to the throat of the Russian state and with his troops advancing on Moscow certainly had leverage to cut a very nice deal for himself, so isn‘t it more likely he’s agreed to massive personal enrichment and what he judged were sufficient guarantees of his own safety and those of his troops? Perhaps he will find a position of power and influence in Belarus…

The Skripals were exiled to England as part of a ‘deal’. You’d think you’d be safer there than Belarus.

 

[SpookyFrank]

A lot of people seem to think Prigozhin is off to meet a sticky end, but this is a guy who knows the Russian system and has traded his way up to a position of power and wealth (and seems very motivated by money), so it doesn’t seem likely to me he would naively accept a “deal” which in reality becomes exit from this life.

The guy was holding a knife to the throat of the Russian state and with his troops advancing on Moscow certainly had leverage to cut a very nice deal for himself, so isn‘t it more likely he’s agreed to massive personal enrichment and what he judged were sufficient guarantees of his own safety and those of his troops? Perhaps he will find a position of power and influence in Belarus…

Maybe there's a genuine guarantee of safety from the Byelorussian state but, how long will that Byelorussian state last? Particularly if Putin's regime falls, an eventuality Prigozhin himself may have just played a major part in. He's steering the ship into an ice field so he can blackmail himself a better deckchair.

 

[JimW]

Here's that article i failed to link earlier off my phone: ‘There’s nobody on earth who can stop them’ What Wagner Group veterans have to say about Yevgeny Prigozhin’s armed rebellion — Meduza

Sources familiar with the structure of Wagner Group are confident that the reason for the revolt was Yevgeny Prigozhin’s prolonged conflict with the leadership of Russia’s Defense Ministry — particularly with the defense minister. Prigozhin “initiated this showdown, and hoping until the last moment that his superior [Putin] would make the right choice,” an acquaintance of Prigozhin’s told Meduza. But the president made the “wrong” choice, the speaker adds: “He chose Shoigu and the military establishment.”

Prigozhin “started to get restless” about two weeks ago, sources close to the Kremlin and the Russian government told Meduza, right after Putin said that mercenary groups would be required to sign contracts with the Russian Defense Ministry if they wanted to continue serving in Ukraine.

Putin himself explained that the change was necessary so that Wagner mercenaries could be “covered by social guarantees.” But Prigozhin categorically refused to sign an agreement with the agency and made unofficial attempts to bypass Putin’s order. “He understood that his influence would be greatly undermined. He made phone calls, offering alternative solutions like subordinating Wagner Group to the National Guard. Plus, he was pressing for control over the preparation of territorial defense forces in the border regions. And he was denied,” said a source close to the Kremlin.

Another reason Prigozhin resisted the idea of giving the regular military control over Wagner Group personnel was that it would jeopardize his business interests in Africa, explained a veteran of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) who is familiar with the catering tycoon’s enterprises there. “When Shoigu wanted to put [Wagner Group fighters] in uniform, he was trying to take over all the lucrative African ventures, meaning all the mines, all the stuff that would fall under the Defense Ministry. That was the final straw,” said the source.

 

[Kaka Tim]

ISW's take . Seeme a good summary of where we are and what we know.

The Kremlin now faces a deeply unstable equilibrium. The Lukashenko-negotiated deal is a short-term fix, not a long-term solution, and Prigozhin’s rebellion exposed severe weaknesses in the Kremlin and Russian MoD. Suggestions that Prigozhin’s rebellion, the Kremlin’s response, and Lukashenko’s mediation were all staged by the Kremlin are absurd. The imagery of Putin appearing on national television to call for the end of an armed rebellion and warning of a repeat of the 1917 revolution – and then requiring mediation from a foreign leader to resolve the rebellion – will have a lasting impact. The rebellion exposed the weakness of the Russian security forces and demonstrated Putin’s inability to use his forces in a timely manner to repel an internal threat and further eroded his monopoly on force. Prigozhin’s rapid drive towards Moscow ridiculed much of the Russian regular forces – and highlighted to any and all security figures, state owned enterprises, and other key figures in the Russian government that private military forces separate from the central state can achieve impressive results. Wagner’s drive also showcased the degradation of Russia’s military reserves, which are almost entirely committed to fighting in Ukraine, as well as the dangers of reliance on inexperienced conscripts to defend Russia’s borders. The Kremlin struggled to respond quickly in the information space and residents in Rostov-on-Don residents did not oppose Wagner and in some cases greeted them warmly – not inherently demonstrating opposition to Putin but at minimum acceptance of Prigozhin’s actions.[48] Finally, the Kremlin’s apparent surprise at Prigozhin’s move does not reflect well on Russia’s domestic intelligence service, the FSB. Prigozhin consistently escalated his rhetoric against the Russian MoD prior to his armed rebellion and Putin failed to mitigate this risk.[49] We cannot and will not speculate on the concrete impacts of Prigozhin’s rebellion and the Kremlin’s weak response and are not forecasting an imminent collapse of the Russian government, as some have done. Nonetheless, Prigozhin’s rebellion and the resolution of the events of June 23 and 24 - though not necessarily the Prigozhin/Kremlin struggle writ large - will likely substantially damage Putin’s government and the Russian war effort in Ukraine.

​

 

[bimble]

Still makes no sense at all to me. Putin went on telly yesterday morning promising harsh retribution to all the traitors and by afternoon all’s forgiven you can retire next door, what would make him willing to even appear to backtrack like that?

 

[ska invita]

As i said last night, all day long now we're going to hear in Britain on all media channels about how Putin is weakened - that is their wish fulfilment and war drive colouring the experience . Theres some truth in that of course....but as I said, theres also factors that make his position stronger - those reasons are self evident: major rival is out the way and neutered, the test of a coup didn't result in either mass uprising on the streets or top brass buckling at the test. Any potential 'traitors' may have outed themselves and will be dealt with no doubt. If regularising irregular forces was seen as an important short term goal it will now happen faster.

Still makes no sense at all to me. Putin went on telly yesterday morning promising harsh retribution to all the traitors and by afternoon all’s forgiven you can retire next door, what would make him willing to even appear to backtrack like that?

he stopped a coup by a hardened parallel army with barely a shot fired and in just a few hours opposition leader is exiled, wagner is as good as disbanded. not what i was expecting the day to end like yesterday morning. who's going to try a coup next after that?

 

[bimble]

Idk, why the announcement of clemency what for?

 

[JimW]

major rival is out the way and neutered,

Prigozhin was never a rival surely?

 

[Pickman's model]

Idk, why the announcement of clemency what for?

Time to get all his ducks in a row

 

[LDC]

No offence, but maybe watching an endless parade of Mi6 cunts and British army professional murderers with back to back illegal wars and the ghost corpses of millions piled around them parading on that fantastic impartial institution that is british tv isnt the best place to get a balanced idea of what is happening in Russia. These 'experts' have their own active role in creating this war, and the next one, and the one after that.

What active role have some of the experts (and which experts?) had in Russia's invasion of Ukraine?

 

[ska invita]

Idk, why the announcement of clemency what for?

who knows, but i can think of reasons
puts the whole thing to bed, dusted, without an endless public recrimination process
no russian soldiers who have fought for the motherland have been killed - bad PR that
can bump him later

Prigozhin was never a rival surely?

maybe not the most accurate word, but he did just try a coup, so something in that ballparl