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The 2023 Russian Coup.

Spymaster said:
Because it gave Prigozhin space to step away and end the immediate advance on Moscow, in a way that "you're gonna die screaming, you treacherous motherfucker" probably wouldn't. Now that's over he has plenty of time to think of exactly how long and on what setting Yevgeny will be roasted.
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“Now, I promise that I won't be angry and you won't be punished, but you have to be honest - was it you who took a shit in Daddy's shoe?” 😶
 
bimble said:
Maybe the fuckup (for Putin) was the decision to go on telly in the first place, saying this was a very serious threat to the State heads will roll etc, the smoothing things over more pragmatic and only looks so strange because of that very public panic.
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I think that the Russian population as a whole is rather politically cynical, and will understand exactly why Putin would go from threatening annihilation to letting them off if they pack it in. I am also sure they are accustomed to the idea that elites can seemingly get away with things that for mere mortals would end badly. If anything the talk of civil war surely gives further justification for Putin settling the matter peacefully and letting Prigozhin leave.
 
At the end of the day the mutiny was stopped. Nobody really understands how but Putin is still there and the other guy has run off to another country with his tail between his legs. So all this talk of Putin being weakened might be a tad premature.
 
tommers said:
At the end of the day the mutiny was stopped. Nobody really understands how but Putin is still there and the other guy has run off to another country with his tail between his legs. So all this talk of Putin being weakened might be a tad premature.
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Sure. In the end memories are short and people (in this instance his 'allies') will spin events in their own ways to fit their own preconceptions. Maybe it will be a net neutral event from that perspective. But it was also a truly bizarre incident which, to everyone not on Putin's page, is another demonstration of weak structures of command and poor communication.
 
Kaka Tim said:
Are we back to vlad the 5d chess master again? I am struggling to see an outcome where Vlad has not been made to look incredibly weak and not in control.
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Yeah, I'm also not all convinced even his allies will look on this as anything other than a failure. It's just time and optimism may alleviate that somewhat. But at best it's another negative thing that has to be brushed aside over at the ministry of foreign affairs.
 
Kaka Tim said:
Are we back to vlad the 5d chess master again? I am struggling to see an outcome where Vlad has not been made to look incredibly weak and not in control.
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With the proviso that I don't know more than anyone else, Putin has potentially now dealt with the Prigozhin issue that's been bubbling away for a while.

Prigozhin's influence and power comes from him running a private army that has been very useful for Russian foreign policy and in the invasion of Ukraine. He knew this and has felt able to speak in ways that others would never have got away with, lambasting the failures of the MoD while bigging up Wagner. It's obviously caused concern in the Kremlin, as the Russian state was trying to get private military contractors (or mercenaries if you prefer) to sign contracts that would put them under direct control. This was a way of putting Prigozhin back in his box and seems to have been what prompted him to launch his whatever yesterday was.

We don't know what was said or promised to Prigozhin, but if he finds he's now been neutered then it could be a messy win for Putin, no 5D chess involved.
 
Spandex said:
With the proviso that I don't know more than anyone else, Putin has potentially now dealt with the Prigozhin issue that's been bubbling away for a while.

Prigozhin's influence and power comes from him running a private army that has been very useful for Russian foreign policy and in the invasion of Ukraine. He knew this and has felt able to speak in ways that others would never have got away with, lambasting the failures of the MoD while bigging up Wagner. It's obviously caused concern in the Kremlin, as the Russian state was trying to get private military contractors (or mercenaries if you prefer) to sign contracts that would put them under direct control. This was a way of putting Prigozhin back in his box and seems to have been what prompted him to launch his whatever yesterday was.

We don't know what was said or promised to Prigozhin, but if he finds he's now been neutered then it could be a messy win for Putin, no 5D chess involved.
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At a certain stage of the season you have to sometimes win ugly. Three points is three points.
 
Somewhere in the Kremlin a Putin underling is taking a battlefield report from Kadyrov and saying "what a busy day you had! Yes Mr Putin will definitely see it, we'll put it right up on the fridge in pride of place. Oh he's really proud of you ... well he's very busy Ramzan, he might not be able to make it to watch your five-a-side game. Of course I'll ask, now I'm afraid I really have to go, you keep being a big brave boy ..."
 
maomao said:
I doubt he planned it but he did win it. I can't see anyone trying similar for a while. It makes him look weak personally but I'm not sure how it 'weakens' him.
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I will repost this as I think it got missed earlier -


Cant get my head round how weak Putin and his regime is now. Hes gone from Stalin to John Major in 24 hours. You have to wonder what sort of mutterings is going on among the top brass - many of whom will deeply resent the humiliations that Prigozhin has been allowed to heap on them and how the way they have carried the can for the disastrous counduct of the war. It very much looks like anyone who can assemble a coherent armed force can topple the regime and sieze power - and Wagner are no longer there to prevent it happening.
Then you have the junior officers and rank and file who have endured nearly 18 months of bloody faliure, have no trust in their commanders and have just witnessed the complete inability of the regime to stop a mutiny. What would happen if a Russian units refused to fight and/or marched back home ? Who would stop them? How many might join them? Again - Wagner are no longer there to act as internal secutiry (think I read somewhere that Wagner units were among those who were shooting any grunts who retreated).
What of the Russian population? Not just the anti-war movment - but the ordianry russians who may have passively supported the war but must now be fully aware that it is failing at huge cost in lives and has been run by deceitful incompetants. And they have just witnessed their Government fail to stop an armed insurrection and pardon its dangerous - and possibly unhinged - leader after he went to war with the russian state for 24 hours. They witnessed Putin flee the capital and issue a furious denunciation on the trecherous terrorists - then perform a complete volte face.

Are we are looking at the political equivalent of the Chrnobly reactor at 1.20 am on April 26th 1986 - just waiting for someone to press the button that blows the whole thing to smithereens?

Cant imagine our Vlad is sleeping too easy right now. Or the rest of Russia for that matter.

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This ISW's take (again reposted earlier)

The Kremlin now faces a deeply unstable equilibrium. The Lukashenko-negotiated deal is a short-term fix, not a long-term solution, and Prigozhin’s rebellion exposed severe weaknesses in the Kremlin and Russian MoD. Suggestions that Prigozhin’s rebellion, the Kremlin’s response, and Lukashenko’s mediation were all staged by the Kremlin are absurd. The imagery of Putin appearing on national television to call for the end of an armed rebellion and warning of a repeat of the 1917 revolution – and then requiring mediation from a foreign leader to resolve the rebellion – will have a lasting impact. The rebellion exposed the weakness of the Russian security forces and demonstrated Putin’s inability to use his forces in a timely manner to repel an internal threat and further eroded his monopoly on force. Prigozhin’s rapid drive towards Moscow ridiculed much of the Russian regular forces – and highlighted to any and all security figures, state owned enterprises, and other key figures in the Russian government that private military forces separate from the central state can achieve impressive results. Wagner’s drive also showcased the degradation of Russia’s military reserves, which are almost entirely committed to fighting in Ukraine, as well as the dangers of reliance on inexperienced conscripts to defend Russia’s borders. The Kremlin struggled to respond quickly in the information space and residents in Rostov-on-Don residents did not oppose Wagner and in some cases greeted them warmly – not inherently demonstrating opposition to Putin but at minimum acceptance of Prigozhin’s actions.[48] Finally, the Kremlin’s apparent surprise at Prigozhin’s move does not reflect well on Russia’s domestic intelligence service, the FSB. Prigozhin consistently escalated his rhetoric against the Russian MoD prior to his armed rebellion and Putin failed to mitigate this risk.[49] We cannot and will not speculate on the concrete impacts of Prigozhin’s rebellion and the Kremlin’s weak response and are not forecasting an imminent collapse of the Russian government, as some have done. Nonetheless, Prigozhin’s rebellion and the resolution of the events of June 23 and 24 - though not necessarily the Prigozhin/Kremlin struggle writ large - will likely substantially damage Putin’s government and the Russian war effort in Ukraine.
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Kaka Tim said:
I will repost this as I think it got missed earlier -
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I read it, I just didn't agree with it. Vlad has repulsed the most serious threat possible short of a full army mutiny by having a couple of his mates talk Prigozhin down. It's been made clear that a rebellion during a border war is an existential threat to Russia and whoever repeats it will be an enemy of Russia (rather than of Vlad specifically). There are definitely some awkward aspects for Vlad but there has been no weakening of the structures holding him in place and his most vocal internal critic has been pushed aside. In fact it's probably allowed for some detailed rehearsal of how to cope if it did happen again and possibly flushed out a few rebels too. Prigozhin was the nearest thing Putin had to a rival, who's left?
 
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