The 2023 Russian Coup.

[Dogsauce]

Well, that de-escalated quickly!

 

[RD2003]

If he got wind that he was up for elimination due to his rants against the leadership then this can be seen as a desperate throw of the dice to improve his predicament. I doubt it has though. He’s bought time maybe.

He almost definitely was up for elimination. There seems to be a view on here that the defence of the Russian seat of government consisted of a handful of soldiers (probably reservists) lying on some grass. This is almost definitely untrue: a serious coup attempt would have been as bloody as anything previously seen in Russian history. Even if relatively bloodless on the day, what would have followed would have made up for it.

 

[two sheds]

They'd certainly have been up against a tank.

 

[ska invita]

He almost definitely was up for elimination. There seems to be a view on here that the defence of the Russian seat of government consisted of a handful of soldiers (probably reservists) lying on some grass. This is almost definitely untrue: a serious coup attempt would have been as bloody as anything previously seen in Russian history.

yes and one tank supposedly

whereas in fact:
" This is a regime designed to be coup-proof, as multiple security agencies monitor and counter each other. There are several military units based around the capital, including the 4th Guards “Kantemir” Tank Division and the 2nd Guards “Taman” Motorised Rifle Division. Both are relatively elite forces and even if many of their troops have been deployed to Ukraine, at least a regiment of each remains on base.
Beyond that, the paramilitary National Guard has the oversized 1st Separate Operational Purpose Division, also known as the Dzerzhinsky Division, based in the outskirts of the city and there are also numerous armed police and security units. Finally, the Federal Protection Service controls the Presidential Regiment, also known as the Kremlin Guard. Put all these together, and Prigozhin is already outnumbered, even before reinforcements are mustered and airpower deployed."

<<<<<Professor Mark Galeotti, author of over 20 books on Russia, most recently Putin’s Wars: From Chechnya to Ukraine, published by Bloomsbury - in the Times today

 

[RD2003]

yes and one tank supposedly

whereas in fact:
" This is a regime designed to be coup-proof, as multiple security agencies monitor and counter each other. There are several military units based around the capital, including the 4th Guards “Kantemir” Tank Division and the 2nd Guards “Taman” Motorised Rifle Division. Both are relatively elite forces and even if many of their troops have been deployed to Ukraine, at least a regiment of each remains on base.
Beyond that, the paramilitary National Guard has the oversized 1st Separate Operational Purpose Division, also known as the Dzerzhinsky Division, based in the outskirts of the city and there are also numerous armed police and security units. Finally, the Federal Protection Service controls the Presidential Regiment, also known as the Kremlin Guard. Put all these together, and Prigozhin is already outnumbered, even before reinforcements are mustered and airpower deployed."

<<<<<Professor Mark Galeotti, author of over 20 books on Russia, most recently Putin’s Wars: From Chechnya to Ukraine, published by Bloomsbury - in the Times today

Too many people have, particularly since the end of Feb 2022, been excited by the idea of Russia as the mythical 'Upper Volta with missiles' (as if the missiles don't matter.) They have, it seems, never considered actual Russian society and how it, however cynically, views its government and state, nor met for example, 'liberal' Russian punk rockers who argue vehemently that blacks in Russia should be chased out of the country or be killed, nor people who rallied behind Yeltsin in 1991, '93 and '96 who basically agreed with them. Under the stealthily growing dictatorship of Putin, a man endorsed by Yeltsin personally, and the inevitable outcome of his chaotic rule, the situation has only worsened.

There absolutely is 'another Russia,' but it's a minority pursuit, a bit like fell-running or butterfly collecting. And Russia retains a formidable force of internal repression (as Prighozin has just apparently remembered), and is, whatever the online war watchers may think, not going to back down in Ukraine, even if it means laying waste to the place. Ukraine is, for enough Russians for it to matter, the final straw. If in doubt, all we have to do is wait.

 

[DaveCinzano]

 

[Magnus McGinty]

Putin doesn’t like opposition. Less so if he feels they’ve benefited since the fall of the Soviet Union and demands loyalty from Oligarchs that have.
Not sure how Prigozhin failed to read the table - maybe he just got too powerful and had to go anyway.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Fair enough, but I still doubt that Prighozin ever saw himself sitting on the throne in the Kremlin, whatever else might have been running through his mind.

Better analogy than Hitler. The Tejerazo in Spain. Looking back, Tejero was an absurd, deluded fool. Even quite soon after it happened, it became clear he was an absurd, deluded fool. But as it was happening, that's not what people were thinking.

 

[RD2003]

Better analogy than Hitler. The Tejerazo in Spain. Looking back, Tejero was an absurd, deluded fool. Even quite soon after it happened, it became clear he was an absurd, deluded fool. But as it was happening, that's not what people were thinking.

Fair enough, but different country, different context. And, not least, a country where hope (for what it's worth) still existed.

 

[RD2003]

Putin doesn’t like opposition. Less so if he feels they’ve benefited since the fall of the Soviet Union and demands loyalty from Oligarchs that have.
Not sure how Prigozhin failed to read the table - maybe he just got too powerful and had to go anyway.

I'd say don't judge Russian thinking or considerations by western standards and assumptions. As Churchill recognised, we simply can't understand them.

Various theories have circulated for some time, often taking into account how Russia as a state came about, and how it has, rightly or wrongly, struggled with a sense of threat.

 

[Magnus McGinty]

I'd say don't judge Russian thinking, nor considerations, by western standards and assumptions. As Churchill recognised, we simply can't understand them.

Without understanding Vlad’s thinking we do have a pretty extensive list of outcomes though.
With Berezovsky, for example, his support network was taken out first which left him exposed to the inevitable.

 

[RD2003]

Without understanding Vlad’s thinking we do have a pretty extensive list of outcomes though.
With Berezovsky, for example, his support network was taken out first which left him exposed to the inevitable.

Vlad is irrelevant in the long term. Those who assume that seeing him out of the picture as some kind of solution have not been paying attention. Vlad is, when you strip away all the 'while I and my kids are still alive' self-gain, there to maintain continuity in Russian history. If Russia 'loses' in Ukraine, what he's taken upon himself to be the representative/embodiment of will survive, and as the world descends into climate chaos and so on, a nuclear-armed Russia will still be a pervasive presence. The war over Ukraine will become the semi-forgotten event it was destined to be from the start.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Fair enough, but different country, different context. And, not least, a country where hope (for what it's worth) still existed.

It played out on TV, like this. However, I do think you make a good point about the cynicism and, well, nihilism of Russians generally regarding their political situation. That said, how many of their sons need to die to change that?

 

[Magnus McGinty]

Vlad is irrelevant in the long term. Those who assume that seeing him out of the picture as some kind of solution have not been paying attention. Vlad is, when you strip away all the 'while I and my kids are still alive' self-gain, there to maintain continuity in Russian history. If Russia 'loses' in Ukraine, what he's taken upon himself to be the representative/embodiment of will survive, and as the world descends into climate chaos and so on, a nuclear-armed Russia will still be a pervasive presence. The war over Ukraine will become the semi-forgotten event it was destined to be from the start.

I can’t disagree with this, I just assumed we were discussing the actions and fate of Prigozhin as opposed to some wider analysis.

 

[RD2003]

It played out on TV, like this. However, I do think you make a good point about the cynicism and, well, nihilism of Russians generally regarding their political situation. That said, how many of their sons need to die to change that?

I'm not sure if the cynicism/nihilism of many (but by no means all) Russians is due to their political situation, or a broader sense that day-to-day politics is merely one facet of the tragic circumstances into which the nation of which all Russians, no matter what their view, seem proud, was born, and only through tragic sacrifice. Many Russians, it seems clear, view the current situation in this way.

It remains to be seen if this will always be the dominant view, but as long as the country can be described as being under threat it is more than likely to. In my experience, and as historical events bear out, Russians put Russia first no matter the nature of their rulers. When Russians flee from ie military service, it doesn't necessarily mean they don't hold to one or another version of this dominant view, only that they are trying to escape any personal consequences.

 

[RD2003]

I can’t disagree with this, I just assumed we were discussing the actions and fate of Prigozhin as opposed to some wider analysis.

Fair enough, but I don't think current events can be fully understood without a wider analysis.

 

[RD2003]

Notably, Putin has compared today's 'mutinous strike' to the revolution of 1917...

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Notably, Putin has compared today's 'mutinous strike' to the revolution of 1917...

I was thinking about that earlier. Sorry, but Putin is the Tsar in that scenario. The ten days that shook the world were started by an unlikely minority of upstarts. Is he saying he's the Tsar in this instance? The deeply unpopular Tsar sending millions to their deaths in a pointless war? That Tsar?

 

[RD2003]

I was thinking about that earlier. Sorry, but Putin is the Tsar in that scenario. The ten days that shook the world were started by an unlikely minority of upstarts. Is he saying he's the Tsar in this instance? The deeply unpopular Tsar sending millions to their deaths in a pointless war? That Tsar?

I'm hardly disagreeing. I expect 1917, and the fate of a weak, if ostensibly secure, Tsar is on Putin's mind quite a lot. But my main point was that Putin, as has been clear for some time, sees himself in the pre-1917 tradition. Russia's current rulers might have a foot in the Soviet camp in which many of them received their training and education, but they absolutely reject it except when an appeal to its residual popularity serves their purposes.

 

[Dystopiary]

I'm not sure if the cynicism/nihilism of many (but by no means all) Russians is due to their political situation, or a broader sense that day-to-day politics is merely one facet of the tragic circumstances into which the nation of which all Russians, no matter what their view, seem proud, was born, and only through tragic sacrifice. Many Russians, it seems clear, view the current situation in this way.

It remains to be seen if this will always be the dominant view, but as long as the country can be described as being under threat it is more than likely to. In my experience, and as historical events bear out, Russians put Russia first no matter the nature of their rulers. When Russians flee from ie military service, it doesn't necessarily mean they don't hold to one or another version of this dominant view, only that they are trying to escape any personal consequences.

There are many colonised people of Russia, themselves Russians, for whom this is absolutely untrue.

 

[RD2003]

There are many colonised people of Russia, themselves Russians, for whom this is absolutely untrue.

I know. I did have in mind, mainly, 'ethnic Russians.' Again anecdotal, but I found that there are varying degrees of prejudice towards the rest, ranging from outright hostilty, through 'They're OK but not really part of us' indifference to ''They're Russians like us.'

And none of it means that the minorities within Russia don't hold to the viewpoint I described. Inevitably, some will and some won't. It might depend on how they view themselves.

 

[Elpenor]

Haven’t read the thread but any idea why
has this happened? It feels a little more of an event than the Turkish coup a few years ago but not by much.

Feels somewhat gamed so that Wagner leader can leave with head held high having asserted his forces strength but not done anything that significant in reality + Putin looks tough for squashing it quickly and has identified political actors ripe for elimination who were prepared to move against him?

 

[Raheem]

I don't think there's any possibility Putin was in on this. It makes him look weak and there was nothing in it for him. If he had wanted to make examples and show strength he could have just done it. Provoking arrhythmia all over Moscow is surplus to requirements.

 

[Shippou-Sensei]

 

[JimW]

Haven’t read the thread but any idea why
has this happened? It feels a little more of an event than the Turkish coup a few years ago but not by much.

Feels somewhat gamed so that Wagner leader can leave with head held high having asserted his forces strength but not done anything that significant in reality + Putin looks tough for squashing it quickly and has identified political actors ripe for elimination who were prepared to move against him?

Read an article on that Meduza independent Russian news portal that suggested it was the culmination of MOD attempts to get Wagner under their control coming imminent at Prizoghin not getting the backing he was expecting from Putin so going nuclear. Had a good quote from a merc about "getting a ticket to a shitty circus".

 

[Spymaster]

It's also a lazy analysis to say that anyone who opposes the government or the state gets killed off instantly in Russia. Prigozhin may be on a list but he is too high profile to do anthing about now.

I don't think his high profile affords him any protection at all. If anything, the opposite. If Politkovskaya, Litvinenko, Salisbury etc, show us anything, it's that Vlad's perfectly happy to order hits that are carried out in such ways that leave no doubt as to who commissioned them. He wants everyone to know that fucking with him has serious cosequences and Yevgeny has just fucked with him in spectacular fashion. Putin has to do him in or look even weaker than he does now. Prigozhin will be, quite rightly, shitting his pants every time the doorbell rings or a car backfires. My money's on a firey statement hit involving a bomb.

I don't fancy the chances of the "pardoned" Wagner fighters either, at least not the commanders.

 

[Yossarian]

Had a good quote from a merc about "getting a ticket to a shitty circus".

A Wagner tank reportedly got stuck in a circus entrance in Rostov

 

[Dogsauce]

I don't think his high profile affords him any protection at all. If anything, the opposite. If Politkovskaya, Litvinenko, Salisbury etc, show us anything, it's that Vlad's perfectly happy to order hits that are carried out in such ways that leave no doubt as to who commissioned them. He wants everyone to know that fucking with him has serious cosequences and Yevgeny has just fucked with him in spectacular fashion. Putin has to do him in or look even weaker than he does now. Prigozhin will be, quite rightly, shitting his pants every time the doorbell rings or a car backfires. My money's on a firey statement hit involving a bomb.

Yet Prigozhin is popular, particularly with soldiers, for appearing to fight their corner, no matter how much that is just rhetorical drivel (remember Wagner often employed as ‘blocking troops’ shooting their own side if they retreat, and fed many into the ’meat grinder’). Wagner seemed welcomed or at least tolerated by many in Rostov, although admittedly that was just a few pictures published (and I’m remembering the ‘crowds’ at the toppling of Saddam’s statue when thinking of this). Also had other military groupings taking his side, it appeared to have momentum although again not clear if this was overplayed (either by Wagner or by western media creating a narratIve)

Anyhow, I’d be surprised if this is all done and finished, there will be ripples going out for a while.

 

[Rob Ray]

Popularity with the ranks is more reason to off him rather than less, I'd have thought. Putin has a long history of killings (or attempts) against high profile figures and part of it is specifically saying no-one is too big to fall apart from Putin himself.

 

[The39thStep]

The bigger they come , the harder they fall