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The 2023 Russian Coup.

I'd have thought Wagner wouldn't be able to make too much forward planning for this if they were trying to keep it relatively quiet for surprise value which they do seem to have managed. Certainly took this side of the West Country by surprise.
 
LDC said:
From the circles Prigozhin has moved in for years I assume he's got some sense of how what he's doing will be received by them and their ilk though? If all there is is him and Wagner then he's fucked I think, but the air of panic in Moscow and lack of defences and silence from some quarters might suggest he has some either active backing or a lot of fence sitting until things become clearer about which way it's going to go?
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We are all speculating however for me ghe question is who would benefit from backing Wagner ? The oligarchs abroad against the war have mainly been invisible and non engaged . Sections of the Russian economy have done well out of the war , some moving into occupying the space western companies vacated , others in contruction in the self proclaimed republics , others in heavy industry from the demand for weapons etc . Putin managed to juggle the competition so if Prigozin has got backers it’s got to be part of the ruling class that thinks it’s going to get something out of it .
A depressing aspect , if we are allowed to consider the Russian w/class, is that neither side , nor what passes as the liberal opposition offer any change for the Russian working class .
Of course it might all end up as a bit of a fudge , lessons learnt , few sacrifices on both sides . Anything is possible .
 
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Wagner founder Dmitry Utkin is leading the convoy headed for Moscow, according to Reuters - I doubt Putin expected his supposed "denazification" effort would lead to a Nazi-led force invading the capital

www.reuters.com

Rebel Russian mercenaries barrel towards Moscow

A convoy of rebel mercenaries advanced more than halfway toward Moscow after seizing Rostov-on-Don as Vladimir Putin vowed to crush an armed mutiny, Russia's first in decades, by Yevgeny Prigozhin and his private Wagner militia.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
It’s not like Wagner man’s an outsider really though is it, same trough, same circles, so maybe plenty of the oligarchs could shift allegiance without standing to lose what they’ve got, if Putin were to be replaced by new bastard.
 
T & P said:
However depleted the Russian military might be, surely they would have little trouble in annihilating any column of vehicles travelling in the open air along a motorway if the will was there? They were still launching missile strikes on Ukraine a few hours ago. it feels to me as if the will isn’t there or orders are not being obeyed.
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The Russian army is currently dug in on the front lines in Ukraine. If it had an agile and responsive command, then sure, some shuffling could probably be done, but the whole point in this escapade is that it doesn't, and Prigozhin arguably does.
 
potential STOP THE PRESS!!!! Ukrainian and Russian telegram channels all reporting simultaneously that Lukashenko has spoken to Prigozhin and convinced him to stand down!

EDIT: Prigozhin comes out immediately afterwards to say it's all bullshit and he's sticking to his guns, the party is still on :cool:
 
Flavour said:
potential STOP THE PRESS!!!! Ukrainian and Russian telegram channels all reporting simultaneously that Lukashenko has spoken to Prigozhin and convinced him to stand down!

EDIT: Prigozhin comes out immediately afterwards to say it's all bullshit and he's sticking to his guns, the party is still on :cool:
Click to expand...
Hmm who to believe
 
bimble said:
In a scenario where Wagner (and whoever else is already or ends up on his side) do effectively gain control of Russia and it’s official army etc, what would motivate them to continue the war on Ukraine instead of pulling out normalising business relations with outside world etc ?
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unlikely the Wagner leader is pisses off they are losing not because the war is wrong
 
Flavour said:
potential STOP THE PRESS!!!! Ukrainian and Russian telegram channels all reporting simultaneously that Lukashenko has spoken to Prigozhin and convinced him to stand down!

EDIT: Prigozhin comes out immediately afterwards to say it's all bullshit and he's sticking to his guns, the party is still on :cool:
Click to expand...

BBC reporting that now as well.
 
Ax^ said:
unlikely the Wagner leader is pisses off they are losing not because the war is wrong
Click to expand...
Don’t think he (massive mercenary) cares about ‘wrong’, just what’s the motivation to continue, especially if you’re a logistics man & realist. It was Putin’s thing.
 
bimble said:
In a scenario where Wagner (and whoever else is already or ends up on his side) do effectively gain control of Russia and it’s official army etc, what would motivate them to continue the war on Ukraine instead of pulling out normalising business relations with outside world etc ?
Click to expand...
Aside from the fact that Wagners CEO is one of the most sanctioned people in the world , the issue of Wagner war crimes and the reparations nothing springs to mind really .
 
Flavour said:
potential STOP THE PRESS!!!! Ukrainian and Russian telegram channels all reporting simultaneously that Lukashenko has spoken to Prigozhin and convinced him to stand down!

EDIT: Prigozhin comes out immediately afterwards to say it's all bullshit and he's sticking to his guns, the party is still on :cool:
Click to expand...
Do we wait to see what Putin or the Wagner group say or do we take the word from Belarus
 
The39thStep said:
I’m going with the fudge ending
Click to expand...

I could see some sort of weird coming together, handshakes and hugs in Red Square it’s all been a big misunderstanding etc. but they’ve now shot down 7 aircraft (reported) and humiliated Putin. It’s gonna be messy.
 
Flavour said:
potential STOP THE PRESS!!!! Ukrainian and Russian telegram channels all reporting simultaneously that Lukashenko has spoken to Prigozhin and convinced him to stand down!

EDIT: Prigozhin comes out immediately afterwards to say it's all bullshit and he's sticking to his guns, the party is still on :cool:
Click to expand...
That doesn't seem all that believable. If Prigozhin stands down I would imagine Mad Bad Vlad would have him thrown out of the window asap. There are reports flying around on twitter that Lukashenko and his family have already pissed off to Turkey on a private jet. I don't think anyone really knows what's happening at the moment even Vlad and Prigo.
It's a pity that they both can't lose really.
 
I recognise the analogy with the Cuban revolution in terms of how things snowball. The one that occurs to me is Mengistu's collapse in Ethiopia whilst having the largest and best equipped military in Africa at the time.

There has to be machinations outside Wagner propelling thus momentum, surely?

I know nothing btw...
 
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