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The 2023 Russian Coup.

In a scenario where Wagner (and whoever else is already or ends up on his side) do effectively gain control of Russia and it’s official army etc, what would motivate them to continue the war on Ukraine instead of pulling out normalising business relations with outside world etc ?
They're doing this not least because they think the war isn't being pursued aggressively enough.

Whether they or anyone else will be in a position to continue it at any level of aggression in the coming weeks remains to be seen.
 
This has got to be a load of bollocks right? There's no way a relatively small group of mercs can take on the Russian army.
I think we will get a partial answer to that as it becomes evident how much resistance there is to the convoy progressing up the M4. The Russian army could probably stop it, but will they?
 
This has got to be a load of bollocks right? There's no way a relatively small group of mercs can take on the Russian army.

The Russian army hasn't, so far, done much to stop Wagner, and there's reports of at least some Russian troops joining the Wagner lot.

Sky is also saying that Russian bloggers are reporting Russian troops are leaving the frontline in Ukraine, to fight in Russia, but they didn't say if that would be for or against Wagner.
 
I think we will get a partial answer to that as it becomes evident how much resistance there is to the convoy progressing up the M4. The Russian army could probably stop it, but will they?
It's so difficult to work out what's what in Russia that I take everything with a pinch of salt.

ETA: Rostov on Don? Sounds like Berwick on Tweed
 
I dunno they might literally be saying why don’t you go and disrupt Moscow not here
Do coup attempts have to have popular support ?
I don't understand Russian but I trust Hanna Liubakova's translation of that clip. She's a liberal and I disagree with her on a number of things but she's decent imo.

And to your q - no, I don't think they do.
 
They're doing this not least because they think the war isn't being pursued aggressively enough.

Whether they or anyone else will be in a position to continue it at any level of aggression in the coming weeks remains to be seen.
I dunno if that first bit’s true though or if it’s just the public pretext for whatever this coup is?
& the Wagner man will know the logistics well, as to 2nd bit.
 
Oh What a Lovely War ?

No don't think so, memory says WW2. Anyway, I'll look.

Do coup attempts have to have popular support ?

I think people are mostly bothered by their own material conditions and having a steady away OK life rather than political ideology. I think if the motivation for this has deeper roots than just Wagner being pissed off, and he has backing of powerful people wanting the war over and life to get back to being how it was then I think it might work? Or at least shift power enough for that even if the 'coup/whatever' fails as such then the next months will see plenty of changes in Russia.
 
However depleted the Russian military might be, surely they would have little trouble in annihilating any column of vehicles travelling in the open air along a motorway if the will was there? They were still launching missile strikes on Ukraine a few hours ago. it feels to me as if the will isn’t there or orders are not being obeyed.
 
I think we will get a partial answer to that as it becomes evident how much resistance there is to the convoy progressing up the M4. The Russian army could probably stop it, but will they?
If the momentum seems to be with Wagner, it will be a brave pilot who drops bombs on them knowing it might later lead to an encounter with a sledgehammer. People will be holding back out of fear.
 
However depleted the Russian military might be, surely they would have little trouble in annihilating any column of vehicles travelling in the open air along a motorway if the will was there? They were still launching missile strikes on Ukraine a few hours ago. it feels to me as if the will isn’t there or orders are not being obeyed.
Sure they want them to surrender but also need the tanks and that
 
No don't think so, memory says WW2. Anyway, I'll look.



I think people are mostly bothered by their own material conditions and having a steady away OK life rather than political ideology. I think if the motivation for this has deeper roots than just Wagner being pissed off, and he has backing of powerful people wanting the war over and life to get back to being how it was then I think it might work? Or at least shift power enough for that even if the 'coup/whatever' fails as such then the next months will see plenty of changes in Russia.
I don’t think coup attempts do have to have popular support tbh. Russia has a fairly depoliticised society so I wouldn’t expect either Carnations down rifle barrels or pro Putin demonstrations . Wagner’s CEO doesn’t offer any political alternative , he’s made his money of our the system and if anything he wants to progress the war more effectively .
I wonder what his generals are thinking ?
 
I'm guessing Prigozhin is banking on many russian army regulars getting behind him, that's what the 'our leadership are scum' recording was for. There'll be more like that over the next few days for sure.
Yep, that speech about how the corrupt politicians stole all the money that was supposed to be weapons & supplies for Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine.
 
They're doing this not least because they think the war isn't being pursued aggressively enough.

Whether they or anyone else will be in a position to continue it at any level of aggression in the coming weeks remains to be seen.
This is a concern - lots of the extreme nationalist / right in Russia want ’decision making centres’ in Kyiv turned into rubble, taking out the whole city if needed.

This whole event doesn’t necessarily make things easier for Ukraine, the unpredictability may make it harder to defend against threats which become unplanned and erratic. Having said that, there may be some back channels with Wagner, which have been hinted at in recent times.
 
Bridge apparently blown up on the way to previously-mentioned site of helicopters, planes and nukes, the Borsioglebsk airfield in Voronezh.
 
I'm guessing Prigozhin is banking on many russian army regulars getting behind him, that's what the 'our leadership are scum' recording was for. There'll be more like that over the next few days for sure.
All leaders are scum and prizoghin will find that he's no more admired than shoigu. I'd not be surprised if the murderers and rapists in his ranks kill or ravish russians during this escapade
 
I don’t think coup attempts do have to have popular support tbh. Russia has a fairly depoliticised society so I wouldn’t expect either Carnations down rifle barrels or pro Putin demonstrations . Wagner’s CEO doesn’t offer any political alternative , he’s made his money of our the system and if anything he wants to progress the war more effectively .
I wonder what his generals are thinking ?

From the circles Prigozhin has moved in for years I assume he's got some sense of how what he's doing will be received by them and their ilk though? If all there is is him and Wagner then he's fucked I think, but the air of panic in Moscow and lack of defences and silence from some quarters might suggest he has some either active backing or a lot of fence sitting until things become clearer about which way it's going to go?
 
However depleted the Russian military might be, surely they would have little trouble in annihilating any column of vehicles travelling in the open air along a motorway if the will was there? They were still launching missile strikes on Ukraine a few hours ago. it feels to me as if the will isn’t there or orders are not being obeyed.
Seven Russian aircraft of varying types have been shot down by Wagner reportedly.

 
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