I think the way England win is by trying to take Ireland on by playing. Don’t see England winning an arm wrestle. They might lose that 20-14 which is by less than a score but never look like winning.
Go out to score 4 tries, 30+ points and even if they go down 41-32 or something to Ireland they’ve given it a go. England can dominate the Irish scrum, with knock on territory gains, but to break down a superbly organised Irish defensive and offensive structure you’ve got to have more ambition than hoping for kickable goals.
Of course this is not a prediction, more how I see a path for an England win, and the form certainly favours Ireland.
The last two times Ireland have been beaten was against New Zealand, before then France beat them in Paris in the 2022 6N. Pretty sure all these teams did so by playing a game designed to get around Ireland not go through them
I am off to Wales v France on Sunday, I can see this going either way, suspect the way the French campaign is going an early card or conceding a try could mean they give up.
Scotland should get a bonus point win against Italy, but whenever they’re talked up it usually means they’re about to choke. They are still on for a triple crown (less meaningful now there’s a 6 team champions) but not sure anyone sees them beating Ireland