Rochdale by-election

[Jeff Robinson]

I think on balance that piece of shit Galloway winning was the lessor of evils here. Labour deserve some electoral blowback for their terrible stance on Gaza and their craven pro-Israel stance since the revisionist Starmer clique took over. As horrific as Galloway's own politics are - his support for the barbaric mass murder by Russia in Ukraine for example - they are fortunately not likely to have any meaningful influence in UK politics for a while. His 'workers party' is just a one man band.

 

[JimW]

Today's Expresso , a Portuguese newspaper ( google translate version)


View attachment 414185

Made the front page of the AP portal too: Veteran British left-wing disruptor George Galloway wins a special election dominated by war in Gaza
The US term for a byelection seems fitting, it was a special election.

 

[StoneRoad]

Well. that result was a little bit in the outfield, but given the Gaza / Starmer shitshow, not entirely unexpected.
tbh I wish that Tully had got the result not GG ...

Will be an interesting GE here - and in a few other places !
I can't decide if GG has any sort of chance in the next round.

 

[The39thStep]

I doubt that any other pro-Palestinian candidate will have the same profile but I'd love to see Wes Streeting go under in the General Election to one

 

[lazythursday]

Well. that result was a little bit in the outfield, but given the Gaza / Starmer shitshow, not entirely unexpected.
tbh I wish that Tully had got the result not GG ...

Will be an interesting GE here - and in a few other places !
I can't decide if GG has any sort of chance in the next round.

If Tully had have won, the message being crowed by the media today would have been that Palestine doesn't play well on the doorsteps and how Starmer has been proved right in his approach to the issue. It might have been a better result for Rochdale but not for wider politics, at least not if you want to see the consensus shift on Gaza.

 

[The39thStep]

If Tully had have won, the message being crowded by the media today would have been that Palestine doesn't play well on the doorsteps and how Starmer has been proved right in his approach to the issue. It might have been a better result for Rochdale but not for wider politics, at least not if you want to see the consensus shift on Gaza.

I think that is a very interesting point for discussion. There's been a campaign to say Labour isn't hurt by the protests, that nothing will change from the protests, that the protests are this mob rule, anti semetic , in fact, anything to shut the protest down. We've also had the 'shaking off the fleas' and even some centrists criticising Gaza/foreign policy for being an issue in elections ( ironically from those who have EU flags in their profile)

 

[Knotted]

how swiftly 1992 is forgotten.

In 1991-2 the Tories were doing better in the polls than they were now, John Major was MUCH more popular than Rishi Sunak is now, and they were (standard poll question) "trusted on the economy" more than Labour was, the reverse is now the case. Furthermore the Tory vote then covered a broader demographic range.

Talking more anecdotally, in my experience right wingers are very confused about the Tory party in a way I've never seen before. They think Sunak is a leftwinger (yes I know), that Truss was misunderstood and they're not impressed by Braverman's posturing and they hope Boris or Farage will save the day somehow. There's absolutely a niche there for them and it's the Reform Party if it gets its act together, but (like Galloway obviously) it's a niche not a power winning coalition of voters.

I think going forward that's going to be the shape of English (Scotland and Wales are a bit different) politics. Labour secure in power with the Tories, Reform, Workers Party and Greens with certain electoral toe holds. Plus Lib Dems doing whatever NIMBY thing they do these days.

All in all I think this is ultimately a sad day. There's a little less space for the left to find it's niche now.

 

[PTK]

The Labour vote in Rochdale declined by 85%.
It was only 15% of what it was last time.

7.7 is 15% of 51.6.

 

[PR1Berske]

Labour's vote share in the constituencies fought in 2019 which have subsequently had byelections: 32.64
Labour's vote share in those byelections: 32.69

 

[steeplejack]

Iirc didn"t Galloway run for the brexit party in the euro elections a few years back? (And reform is brexit party renamed)

No he ran as an independent Brexiter in West Bromwich in 2019, receiving a colossal 1.4% of the vote.

Voters didn't fall for his hasty self-branding as "Mr. Brexit"- I'm not joking- that was on his campaign literature at the time.

The Workers' Party in part emerged from the mulch of that abysmal electoral failure.

 

[brogdale]

That’s what I’ve heard. I’m not in Rochdale but, Labour withdrawing support for their candidate means a vote for that candidate is not a vote for Labour.

It simply makes nonsense of the stats.

Instead, shall we claim that the majority of Rochdale electors that didn’t vote at all, are Labour supporters? That would also be nonsense.

Yeah, I see that. I suppose the key complicating issue is the fact that when faced with the ballot papers the electorate were actually presented with the option of an official LP candidate; it was too late to change the printing. I expect most folk bothering to run up to vote were aware of the withdrawal of party support, but there must have been some 'low information' voters who thought that they were genuinely voting for the LP?

 

[marty21]

Best thing about this car crash of a by-election was Reform fucking up again - if they can't do better in low turnout by-elections against a deeply unpopular sitting government, and against a shooting itself in the foot Labour party , then it stands no chance at the big show.

 

[Dandred]

The Labour vote in Rochdale declined by 85%.
It was only 15% of what it was last time.

7.7 is 15% of 51.6.

Which Labour candidate stood in this election?

 

[brogdale]

Which Labour candidate stood in this election?

The one on the ballot papers that went out as PVs and were issued in the polling stations?

 

[Kid_Eternity]

Well, that's a nice income GG has secured for a few months, nine at best...I expect he'll huff and puff yet do very little in parliament to change anything.

 

[steeplejack]

Galloway will only have a chance if he keeps his head down and works hard on local issues and achieves one or two high profile successes.

As keeping his head down and working away quietly on others' problems isn't really in his nature, he'll be out on his arse later in the year.

 

[Kid_Eternity]

Galloway will only have a chance if he keeps his head down and works hard on local issues and achieves one or two high profile successes.

As keeping his head down and working away quietly on others' problems isn't really in his nature, he'll be out on his arse later in the year.

As with the previous two times...he'll just use it to increase his media profile and earnings.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

Best thing about this car crash of a by-election was Reform fucking up again - if they can't do better in low turnout by-elections against a deeply unpopular sitting government, and against a shooting itself in the foot Labour party , then it stands no chance at the big show.

TBF they won't be able to put up a whole slate of candidates as repulsive as Danczuk, much as they'll try their hardest.

 

[moochedit]

Yeah, I see that. I suppose the key complicating issue is the fact that when faced with the ballot papers the electorate were actually presented with the option of an official LP candidate; it was too late to change the printing. I expect most folk bothering to run up to vote were aware of the withdrawal of party support, but there must have been some 'low information' voters who thought that they were genuinely voting for the LP?

True. It must have confused some voters although people who vote in by-elections probably pay more attention to stuff like that than people who only ever vote in generals.

 

[MickiQ]

As with the previous two times...he'll just use it to increase his media profile and earnings.

^^ this ^^

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Gaza isn't just about Gaza it's also about Muslims being allowed to speak up without being depicted as rabid anti-semitic hoards. We're also staring down the barrel of likely decades of authoritarian but feckless Labour government. The stakes in coming elections are going to be low as there is no chance the Tories will get back in. So Galloway/Workers Party is much more than a protest vote but a permanent niche that Galloway is skilled at filling when the left should be filling it instead.

Yep. And not just muslims. Galloway is vile but he's right to say that millions of non muslims are also angry. The majority of the country strongly disagrees with the Tories and labour over Gaza. And they can see the hypocrisy and double standards. This isn't a problem for Labour that is going away any time soon. I can see Galloway retaining this seat and other labour MPs losing at the next election over this issue. It is symbolic of something deeper about the UK's broken politics.

 

[The39thStep]

I think the best thing is that the Palestine issue isn't going to go away just yet. That in itself may annoy or disappoint the one true path Labour people but as adults who have entered the room they'll just have to get on with adjusting to the new reality.

 

[cupid_stunt]

The majority of the country strongly disagrees with the Tories and labour over Gaza.

Is that true? Has there been a poll?

Only most people I know are not really following or paying attention to it, they have more pressing issues in their lives.

 

[hash tag]

How long before we see Galloway on question time. It's only for a few months and besides he might ruffle the odd feather in the commons, goodness knows it's needed.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I think the best thing is that the Palestine issue isn't going to go away just yet. That in itself may annoy or disappoint the one true path Labour people but as adults who have entered the room they'll just have to get on with adjusting to the new reality.

It's going to fester. The situation in Palestine hasnt even reached its most desperate point yet. The anger isn't going away.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Is that true? Has there been a poll?

Yes.

 

[Knotted]

Yep. And not just muslims. Galloway is vile but he's right to say that millions of non muslims are also angry. The majority of the country strongly disagrees with the Tories and labour over Gaza. And they can see the hypocrisy and double standards. This isn't a problem for Labour that is going away any time soon. I can see Galloway retaining this seat and other labour MPs losing at the next election over this issue. It is symbolic of something deeper about the UK's broken politics.

Yeah agree, badly worded on my part. Also Galloway clearly won more than the Muslim vote in Rochdale.

 

[Wilf]

Yep. And not just muslims. Galloway is vile but he's right to say that millions of non muslims are also angry. The majority of the country strongly disagrees with the Tories and labour over Gaza. And they can see the hypocrisy and double standards. This isn't a problem for Labour that is going away any time soon. I can see Galloway retaining this seat and other labour MPs losing at the next election over this issue. It is symbolic of something deeper about the UK's broken politics.

I don't see him retaining it, but it could be a close run thing. But this certainly will be a recurring problem for Labour, largely in seats with large Muslim populations, but not just those. Labour's problem is how they manage to think themselves out of this problem as it involves unpicking everything at the heart of starmer's leadership. And if they do shift tack and come out with a more critical position on Israel, that has it's own risks, lsoing the support of Jewish opinion in particular. The other thing is that if Labour were even to create a 'critical friends of Israel' position, even that looks mealy mouthed and gets swept away in gob shitey battles with the likes of galloway.

Ultimately though, this is the playing out of who starmer is and the long term impact of the way the right's attacks on Corbyn were so neatly dovetailed with antisemitism accusations.

 

[PTK]

Labour’s vote went down 46% last night due to there being no Labour candidate. In a GE that’s not going to be fought on Gaza but on the economy, NHS, Education etc - and where Labour will pour resources in to the seat - the indie and Galloway will be irrelevant

If there was no Labour candidate, then the Labour vote must hav declined by 100%.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

If there was no Labour candidate, then the Labour vote must hav declined by 100%.

Vote share.