teuchter
je suis teuchter
I thought it was more like we don't yet know to what extent this will be the case.
Possible vaccines/treatment(s) for Coronavirus
- Thread starter cupid_stunt
- Start date
Monkeygrinder's Organ
Dodgy geezer swilling vapid lager
I don't think this is the case is it? It doesn't make any sense, to my non-expert mind anyway.
IF the vaccines prevent transmission then that will kick in as soon as people are vaccinated. Transmission will reduce and the risk to unvaccinated people will decrease (although this will be dependent on behaviour still).The more people are vaccinated then the greater the effect of that will be. There'll be degrees of herd immunity up to the point where true herd immunity is declared, it's not like there'll be one particular point at which the benefits kick in.
If the vaccines don't provide protection against transmission then there won't be any herd immunity - unvaccinated people will still be just as vulnerable even if the majority of people are protected. Obviously the vaccines will still be vital in reducing deaths but herd immunity will be moot.
The question is whether the vaccine does provide that protection or not though as far as I can see.
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
I'm going to stick my neck out a little.
Based on "them" not knowing if vaccination also prevents transmissions and that they don't want the breakdown in social distancing / mask wearing that would happen if they said it did have that protection / there was herd immunity before it had actually occurred.
I actually expect them to carry on saying that transmission is not (totally) prevented until the figures show large reductions in all of cases / admissions / deaths .
(and I am especially waiting for the cases to get down to a low level before I start going out on less essential activities).
Based on "them" not knowing if vaccination also prevents transmissions and that they don't want the breakdown in social distancing / mask wearing that would happen if they said it did have that protection / there was herd immunity before it had actually occurred.
I actually expect them to carry on saying that transmission is not (totally) prevented until the figures show large reductions in all of cases / admissions / deaths .
(and I am especially waiting for the cases to get down to a low level before I start going out on less essential activities).
Monkeygrinder's Organ
Dodgy geezer swilling vapid lager
Yeah I think the messages from the experts will rightly be on the cautious side. They have to be really. Even aside from the basic precautionary principle of not promising anything that might not be the case, there's going to be a big danger as more people get vaccinated and people want to get back to normal life that that happens too soon and makes things a lot worse in the shorter term.
It's all happening at the moment.
Sanofi vaccine didn't work well enough so they are going back for more development work
Reuters | Breaking International News & Views
Find latest news from every corner of the globe at Reuters.com, your online source for breaking international news coverage.uk.reuters.com
And the CSL / Melbourne vaccine has also fallen during early studies
Covid: Australian vaccine abandoned over false HIV response
Trials of the Australian vaccine returned false-positive HIV tests, but did not harm participants.www.bbc.co.uk
cupid_stunt said:
I agree with this, and in the case of the Sanofi one, they expect to start altered ("stage 2B") trials in February 2021.
Also, with the Sanofi one, it was interesting to read that it looks like they'd used similar-ish (?) methodology (more conventional than the mRSA [edit!! I meant mRNA] method used by Pfizer/NBiotec and Moderna) to Oxford/AstraZeneca.
Which very much underlines cupid's point that those having had or expected to have regulatory approval, represesents excellent achievements
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elbows
Well-Known Member
Yeah they are just being cautious about that, and its not a good idea to make claims until the evidence is there.
Herd immunity remains nowhere on my radar, and this doesnt change even if I assume that the vaccines will demonstrate the ability to prevent transmission.
This is because the number of people required to be immunised in order to attempt to reach herd immunity levels is very high, especially with vaccines that arent close to offering 100% protection. It would be a really huge challenge to reach that level of immunisation, and would take a long time. So until we know how long the vaccines can protect for, its not even possible to say whether such a plan is in any way feasible. Plus we dont know the extent to which selection pressure on the virus as a result of mass vaccination will lead to the usual phenomenon whereby random virus mutations that happen to result in the evasion of vaccine immune response give that mutated strain an advantage that allows it to become the dominant strain, requiring new versions of vaccines to be developed.
Those are some of the reasons why the orthodox expert expectations for the future will often be along the lines of expecting vaccines to offer us a way to avoid the worst health system implications of this virus, rather than eradicating the disease. Its all about scale, the pandemic ends in the minds of people and states when the implications of the virus for society are radically changed compared to the current situation. And that doest require full population immunity, it requires massive changes to the scale of hospitalisations and deaths. And then it becomes a case of keeping on top of things and managing this virus and its evolution like they manage any other nasty seasonal virus. Other possibilities exist too, but I dont believe in considering them much unless things happen which really point to such alternative paths looking likely to become the new reality.
Monkeygrinder's Organ
Dodgy geezer swilling vapid lager
Some promising sounding news on the treatment side: Coronavirus: UK scientists identify drugs that may help severe cases
Yes, looks promising
But I'm saving reading it all until I get the paper edition tomorrow ....
Epona
Sonic: 1 Nov 2006 - 8 Jan 2022
I think one of the things we need to remember about transmission is that the virus survives on certain surfaces (especially cold ones) - so having a vaccine will not necessarily prevent ALL forms of spread - yes it seems likely that it will prevent spread if you yourself having been vaccinated and therefore not being ill cough on someone - the spray from your cough is probably safe. Similarly, if you have been vaccinated and someone with Covid coughs on you or on something you handle, then you are significantly less likely to become ill.
BUT if someone who has Covid coughs all over the frozen pizza cabinet of your local supermarket and you handle the pizzas and then handle something else, there is a strong chance that even if you have been vaccinated, you will have spread infectious droplets from the pizzas to whatever you touched next (the cola bottles in the supermarket, your partner's hand, your child's face etc.) increasing the risk for anyone who has not yet been vaccinated - so there will still be a need for good hygiene practices and distancing for that reason. At least for a good amount of time.
BUT if someone who has Covid coughs all over the frozen pizza cabinet of your local supermarket and you handle the pizzas and then handle something else, there is a strong chance that even if you have been vaccinated, you will have spread infectious droplets from the pizzas to whatever you touched next (the cola bottles in the supermarket, your partner's hand, your child's face etc.) increasing the risk for anyone who has not yet been vaccinated - so there will still be a need for good hygiene practices and distancing for that reason. At least for a good amount of time.
Supine
Newt Member
Gene Treatment
Covid: Genes hold clues to why some people get severely ill
A study has identified genes that provide clues about why some people get seriously ill from Covid-19.
www.bbc.co.uk
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
So, the real oldies get it and that bites right into the mortality figures. Then we move onto vaccinating the oldies and then the nearly 60s like me. All good.
Vs
Kill your nan week, Dec 23-27, along with a further collapse in social distancing around February onwards as people see the vaccine roll out and think the pandemic is over.
So, a few trends within trends are likely to happen over the next 6 months, for both mortality and infection rates.
Vs
Kill your nan week, Dec 23-27, along with a further collapse in social distancing around February onwards as people see the vaccine roll out and think the pandemic is over.
So, a few trends within trends are likely to happen over the next 6 months, for both mortality and infection rates.
Supine
Newt Member
Covid: FDA approves Pfizer vaccine for emergency use in US
The US Food and Drug Administration gave its approval late on Friday after White House pressure.
www.bbc.co.uk
hitmouse
so defeated, thinks it's funny
Anyone got any opinions on Ivermectin? A friend sent me a link to Dr Kory's testimony to the senate about its effectiveness, looking around a bit I've found this from AP debunking it. Also a letter in the BMJ promoting it. I am absolutely not well-versed enough in the science to be able to judge either way, am happy to accept "insufficient evidence at present" but if anyone has any fuller debunkings I could send to my friend I'd be happy to see them.
mx wcfc
Well-Known Member
Might be worth following the data here....
Odd to see the UK ahead of the game on something.
@OurWorldInData
’s COVID vaccination page https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations…
https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/1339311180419043330/photo/1
Odd to see the UK ahead of the game on something.
@OurWorldInData
’s COVID vaccination page https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations…
https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/1339311180419043330/photo/1
Supine
Newt Member
MrCurry
right after this urgent rest
I haven’t been reading anything about the vaccines apart from the occasional BBC News website story, so don‘t really know a thing, but I did hear the vaccination is two jabs, 3 weeks apart. Is there any immunity after the first jab, or only after the second?
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
Two doses, 28 days apart, some immunity likely after first dose, but maximum immunity 7 days after second dose. (That's my understanding from some reading and doing vaccination training specific to this vaccine being given now.)
MrCurry
right after this urgent rest
Thanks LynnDoyleCooper. Any idea how much “some” is? 5% 25% 40...?
MrCurry
right after this urgent rest
It’s not moot to me - I’m in Sweden, my parents are in Uk and they’re getting their first jab tomorrow. I want to know how worried I should be about them going to my sister’s for Christmas, as I need to decide how hard I’m going to lobby them to wait the extra month and have their get together end of Jan.
But I’m not having a go at you, just saying I have a reason for asking.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Depends where they & your sister lives, London & much of the SE has just gone into tier 4, meaning no households/existing bubbles mixing with any other over Christmas.
Tiers 1-3 can still mix, but only on Christmas Day, not over 5 days as planned.
Supine
Newt Member
Hi, this data from the FDA submission indicated ten days from the first injection is where the benefit starts. For % look at how the blue and red diverge from each other
8ball
AV REFUGEES WELCOME
Hi, this data from the FDA submission indicated ten days from the first injection is where the benefit starts. For % look at how the blue and red diverge from each other
View attachment 244294
This could likely vary significantly by individual, though, so I wouldn't rely on it in terms of individual decisions around anyone's behaviour.
Shechemite
Be the sun and all will see you
Hoping this legal challenge succeeds. Covid-19: Adults with learning disabilities should have priority access to vaccination, say lawyers
rubbershoes
not the only raver in the village
2 of my doctor friends have had their vaccinations. Their families are very relieved
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