Political polling

[killer b]

this is why you should never move to the countryside. Prettier scenery, but all your neighbours will be tory scum (or liberals if you move to the lakes)

 

[butchersapron]

Labour have got most of the big urban population centres.

Yep,if the above was mapped onto one with population density it would look a lot better.

 

[killer b]

it would look a lot better for Labour at least.

 

[Lo Siento.]

this is why you should never move to the countryside. Prettier scenery, but all your neighbours will be tory scum (or liberals if you move to the lakes)

Comfort yourself with the fact that there's not one seat in the entire UK where more than half your neighbours will have voted Tory.

 

[brogdale]

Yep,if the above was mapped onto one with population density it would look a lot better.

Hennig & Dorling did quite a bit of this soet of thing with the 2010 GE results; simply by 'equalising' the constituency size helps to give a more representative impression...

 

[danny la rouge]

It kind of deserves it own thread, really. Danny?

There probably is one; it's certainly been discussed in the Should Socialists Vote SNP thread, and others.

Will SNP do well? Yes. Will Labour in Scotland be all but wiped out? No, but they will suffer badly.

 

[JTG]

Here yer go, Wee...

Can't make out - is that map suggesting Bristol West is going Tory? If it is, it's bollocks

 

[danny la rouge]

Can't make out - is that map suggesting Bristol West is going Tory? If it is, it's bollocks

No, Lib Dem, I think.

 

[danny la rouge]

Actually, wait. Where's Bristol?

 

[JimW]

They have a big table of seats on one of the tabs and Bristol West is down as 65% likely Labour IIRC; Stroud was 69%
ETA: Here: http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/tables/predicted_probability_by_seat.html

 

[butchersapron]

Can't make out - is that map suggesting Bristol West is going Tory? If it is, it's bollocks

I think it's saying all tory except us or bristol south (either way one goes)and lib-dems keeping thornbury and yate.

Nonsense stuff, if so.

 

[butchersapron]

Seats.

 

[butchersapron]

So they think the lib-dems are going to win bristol west with 23% with labour on 31% and tories on 16%.

Weird.

edit: no read the last winner as predicted winner.

 

[JTG]

I think it's saying all tory except us or bristol south (either way one goes)and lib-dems keeping thornbury and yate.

Nonsense stuff, if so.

That's what it looked like at a glance on the map - looks like Bristol E & S are red, Kingswood, Filton and Bristol W & NW are blue and Thornbury & Yate yellow.

Cobblers, total bilge

 

[JimW]

So they think the lib-dems are going to win bristol west with 23% with labour on 31% and tories on 16%.

Weird.

There was a bit somewhere explaining why aggregate didn't match their individual seat predictions, maybe they tinkered with the map to reflect the aggregate (if so, why a map?)
ETA: This bit here: http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/#addingup

 

[Kaka Tim]

The trouble is most of the prediction models aren't worth shit now with the lib dem collapse and the rise of UKIP, SNP and the greens. There are too many variables - people will vote differently depending on the nature of their constituencies - so lib dem vote will perform better in tory/lib dem marginals and get fucked everywhere else.
Tories have been marooned in the low 30s since forever - (well 2012) and with jsut 5 months to go there is no sign of that shifting. SNP may scupper labours chance of an OM - but the tories are stuffed. Yes they will prob get some votes back from UKIP - but labour will get some UKIPers and greens back as well.

 

[brogdale]

The trouble is most of the prediction models aren't worth shit now with the lib dem collapse and the rise of UKIP, SNP and the greens. There are too many variables - people will vote differently depending on the nature of their constituencies - so lib dem vote will perform better in tory/lib dem marginals and get fucked everywhere else.
Tories have been marooned in the low 30s since forever - (well 2012) and with jsut 5 months to go there is no sign of that shifting. SNP may scupper labours chance of an OM - but the tories are stuffed. Yes they will prob get some votes back from UKIP - but labour will get some UKIPers and greens back as well.

Yep, that's what makes it interesting, innit?

 

[killer b]

fuck, the next few months are going to be ace. Like a five-month test match, but both teams are australia.

 

[Sue]

fuck, the next few months are going to be ace. Like a five-month test match, but both teams are australia.

Hopefully it's going to be much more interesting than that...

 

[JTG]

fuck, the next few months are going to be ace. Like a five-month test match, but both teams are australia.

Just so long as none of them win the Ashes then

 

[JTG]

Hopefully it's going to be much more interesting than that...

There's nothing more interesting than Test cricket. Nothing.

 

[Sue]

There's nothing more interesting than Test cricket. Nothing.

 

[killer b]

A close fought & dirty election campaign is. Just.

 

[JTG]

A close fought & dirty election campaign is. Just.

 

[brogdale]

Back to polling...

Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of:-

CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 8%.

That’s a couple of YouGov polls in a row showing lower than usual UKIP scores, despite the shift in prompting. Today’s is the lowest UKIP score that YouGov have had since early October. It’s just two polls so may be pure co-incidence, but worth keeping an eye on.

 

[Dogsauce]

UKIP haven't been in the news much over the last couple of weeks, they might have had a bit of a bubble from all the attention over the by-elections. I'm surprised Farage hasn't popped up on the telly blaming the current NHS crisis on immigration, strangely absent. Maybe he's actually in Brussels doing his job for a change? Although I presume not as the parliament probably has some ridiculously long winter recess.

 

[brogdale]

UKIP haven't been in the news much over the last couple of weeks, they might have had a bit of a bubble from all the attention over the by-elections. I'm surprised Farage hasn't popped up on the telly blaming the current NHS crisis on immigration, strangely absent. Maybe he's actually in Brussels doing his job for a change? Although I presume not as the parliament probably has some ridiculously long winter recess.

Maybe they're a bit tied up with formulating that 'red tory' manifesto they've got to produce?

 

[redsquirrel]

There's nothing more interesting than Test cricket. Nothing.

Yep. Unfortunately Smith has just scored his fourth hundred in as many matches, and has scored a century in each of the first three matches he's been captain.

 

[butchersapron]

National Poll (Populus) 09 - 11 Jan:

LAB - 37% (+3)
CON - 32% (-1)
UKIP - 13% (-1)
LDEM - 10% (+2)
GRN - 4% (-2)

 

[brogdale]

National Poll (Populus) 09 - 11 Jan:

LAB - 37% (+3)
CON - 32% (-1)
UKIP - 13% (-1)
LDEM - 10% (+2)
GRN - 4% (-2)

So..no evidence there of any post-Paris 'up-tick' for UKIP...whereas YG's Anthony spotted a possible blip in their national from yesterday...

This week’s YouGov/Sunday Times poll is out here. Topline figures are:-

CON 32%, LAB 32%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 18%, GRN 6%.

YouGov’s average for UKIP this week has been running at only been 14%, so the 18% here looks unusually high – it could be an effect of the the events in Paris, or could just be a random blip.