Political polling

[butchersapron]

he's always right, the bastard.

Trying to butter me up before our titanic FF h2h clash later today!

 

[Lo Siento.]

Trying to butter me up before our titanic FF h2h clash later today!

Belated comfort for the pasting Leeds got at Portman Road.

 

[butchersapron]

Belated comfort for the pasting Leeds got at Portman Road.

Transitional season.

 

[brogdale]

A week is a long time in politics, and there's a long way to go before the election.

and don't forget events dear boy, events. Got any others?

 

[danny la rouge]

and don't forget events dear boy, events. Got any others?

"Savaged by a dead sheep".

 

[butchersapron]

“Making love with Nick was like have a double wardrobe fall on top of you with the keystill in the lock.'

 

[brogdale]

"I agree with Nick"*

*clegg, not fatty four dinners

 

[Quartz]

and don't forget events dear boy, events. Got any others?

"Crisis? What crisis?"

 

[Sue]

“Making love with Nick was like have a double wardrobe fall on top of you with the keystill in the lock.'

Even though I've heard this quote umpteen times, it still makes me shudder.

 

[brogdale]

Anthony @ YG has produced an excellent end of year analysis of polling trends.

Graphs include these two...

The average swing in the LD-v-Con seats is a modest 2.2 points from LD to Con, enough for the Conservatives to take seven seats. However, because the majorities and the swings aren’t evenly distributed there were actually ten seats where Ashcroft found the Conservatives ahead and three more (St Ives, North Cornwall and Torbay) where it’s too close to call). The line on the chart below is the swing needed for each Lib Dem seat to fall, the bars the swings recorded in the Ashcroft polling (when Ashcroft has done more than one poll in the same seat I’ve averaged them)

In the LD-v-Lab seats it is a different story, the average swing is a towering 12 points from LD to Lab, enough to win all the seats at a trot. Again, there is some variation from seat to seat, but this is only enough to save two of these seats – the once unassailable Old Southwark and Bermondsey, and Birmingham Yardley where John Hemming seems to be bucking the trend.

 

[Bernie Gunther]

The public’s lack of confidence in Ed Miliband and Labour isn’t manifesting itself in them running back to the Conservative party for safety… it’s manifesting itself in them going off to find more attractive oppositions to vote for.

source above

 

[killer b]

John Hemming is bucking the trend? Wow.

 

[brogdale]

Yay...first political poll of the year!

The Christmas polling break is over have the first poll of 2015 out tonight, conducted for the Observer. Topline figures are:-

CON 32%(+3), LAB 33%(-3), LDEM 8%(+2), UKIP 17%(+1), GRN 4%(-1).

The poll has a sharp drop in Labour’s lead, down six points since a fortnight ago, but the previous poll was that rather incongruous seven point Labour lead, so part of the change will just be a correction after an unusual poll.

 

[brogdale]

Another couple of polls...both giving slight Lab leads..

The first Populus poll of this year this morning – figures there were:-

CON 34%, LAB 36%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%. (Tabs are here.)

YouGov’s first poll of the year is out tonight, with topline figures of:-

CON 31%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 8%.

and Andrew @YG offers an interesting commentary about prompting (or not) of UKIP...essentially YG have started to consistently prompt UKIP, along with the 'big 3', and not detected much difference in the outcome. FTR.... it means three companies (YouGov, ComRes and Survation) now include UKIP in the main prompt, Populus, Opinium, Ipsos MORI, ICM and Lord Ashcroft polls do not.

e2a: as usual Smithson has graphed these polls...

 

[butchersapron]

This is probably going to be a useful site over the coming months. This, for starters is well worth the wade.

 

[brogdale]

This is probably going to be a useful site over the coming months. This, for starters is well worth the wade.

Here's one graph that's certainly going to see a sharp decline...

 

[butchersapron]

Here's one graph that's certainly going to see a sharp decline...

Just thinking about them and the fact that UKIP are going to get hammered in returns far worse than the lib-dems ever did - in terms of effecting the result (locally and nationally) UKIP are going to have more of an impact than lib-dems will. The latter will be clustered in a few seats they hold and be worthless elsewhere, whilst UKIP are going to be making and breaking results all over the shop.

 

[weepiper]

I can't embed the image but this is Election Forecast's latest seat prediction

http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/graphics/2015_predicted_winner.svg

 

[FiFi]

I can't embed the image but this is Election Forecast's latest seat prediction

http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/graphics/2015_predicted_winner.svg

All that blue and yellow makes my heart sink.
I don't think our public services will stand up to another 5 years of them.

 

[brogdale]

All that blue and yellow makes my heart sink.
I don't think our public services will stand up to another 5 years of them.

The yellow is SNP. The lesser spotted tories are in orange...appropriately.

 

[killer b]

Does anyone think the SNP are that nailed on in Scotland? I'm a bit sceptical tbh.

 

[brogdale]

Does anyone think the SNP are that nailed on in Scotland? I'm a bit sceptical tbh.

It kind of deserves it own thread, really. Danny?

 

[FiFi]

The yellow is SNP. The lesser spotted tories are in orange...appropriately.

Oops
I must be colour blind!

 

[brogdale]

I can't embed the image but this is Election Forecast's latest seat prediction

http://www.electionforecast.co.uk/graphics/2015_predicted_winner.svg

Here yer go, Wee...

 

[weepiper]

Cheers! How did you do that?

 

[weepiper]

Does anyone think the SNP are that nailed on in Scotland?

Yes.

 

[brogdale]

Cheers! How did you do that?

Screenshot -> Photobucket.

 

[butchersapron]

All that blue and yellow makes my heart sink.
I don't think our public services will stand up to another 5 years of them.

Those blue seats are bigger size wise - it looks far worse than it is. Labour seats can fit 5 MPs into one of those big blue ones. The map doesn't show that.

 

[weepiper]

Those blue seats are bigger size wise - it looks far worse than it is. Labour seats can fit 5 MPs into one of those big blue ones. The map doesn't show that.

Labour have got most of the big urban population centres.

 

[Lo Siento.]

Here yer go, Wee...

They reckon UKIP will lose Rochester then?