Political polling

[butchersapron]

Crazy crazy goddman world:


Ashcroft National Poll, 9-11 January:
CON 34%,
LAB 28%,
LDEM 8%,
UKIP 16%,
GRN 8%.

 

[butchersapron]

I was going to post something before christmas - i think it was from Dale - about how Ashcrofts polls would now start be really helpful to tactical voters, sort of flagging up some changes or something...

 

[brogdale]

Crazy crazy goddman world:


Ashcroft National Poll, 9-11 January:
CON 34%,
LAB 28%,
LDEM 8%,
UKIP 16%,
GRN 8%.

same fieldwork dates as well!

 

[butchersapron]

same fieldwork dates as well!

We have talked about the volatility of ashcroft stuff before - returning so many results outside of the polling average. Getting daft now.

 

[brogdale]

We have talked about the volatility of ashcroft stuff before - returning so many results outside of the polling average. Getting daft now.

True...he says as much on his site too...

It is important to keep results like this in perspective, and to look at the overall trend rather than any individual poll. The ANP is subject to a margin of error of 3% – meaning the Conservative share could be low enough, and the Labour score high enough, for the parties to be tied on 31%. Indeed only the Conservative score, up four points, has moved outside the margin of error since the last ANP in December. Alternatively, we could be seeing the start of a shift in opinion as the choice looms larger at the start of an election year. Let us see what future results tell us.

 

[brogdale]

On the other hand...Lab will take massive cheer from this...

 

[Dogsauce]

On the other hand...Lab will take massive cheer from this...

Open goal for Labour. Watch Miliband bounce it out of play off the corner flag.

 

[brogdale]

Just checked, and that ComRes fieldwork was post Charlie...

ComRes interviewed 2,056 British adults online between 9th and 11th January 2015.

...and Immig still -3.

Hmmm

 

[brogdale]

Dave has fucked up royally on the TV debates...

 

[redsquirrel]

But will that translate into people voting against the Tories/for Labour? I have my doubts.

 

[William of Walworth]

But will that translate into people voting against the Tories/for Labour? I have my doubts.

So do I, but it could very well undermine Cameron's personal ratings anyway.

 

[brogdale]

So do I, but it could very well undermine Cameron's personal ratings anyway.

That's the danger for the vermin; their leader's ratings have, thus far, exceeded those of the party itself, so damage to his 'reputation' could cause real electoral hurt. Downing St. have fucked up so badly that even Miliband can make them look foolish. The empty podium ("pound of lard") moment would be pretty disastrous for the vermin.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/jan/14/labour-lib-dems-and-ukip-tell-cameron-he-cant-veto-debates-politics-live-blog#block-54b628cee4b02b9a6fa27488

 

[William of Walworth]

Ashcroft's piece on his own poll in today's Graun :

2015 General Election : The Tories are still toxic on the NHS

Includes some polling question details ...

 

[brogdale]

Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of :-

CON 32%, LAB 34%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%.

All looks normal by YouGov’s recent standards (the two polls showing UKIP up at 17% and 18% that we saw immediately after the attacks in Paris seem to have gone away again – perhaps it was a Paris effect, perhaps it was just a random blip).

 

[brogdale]

Ipsos-MORI still showing dire 'England only' numbers for the vermin...

 

[danny la rouge]

 

[bemused]

Not sure why Clegg is smiling in that graphic. Holy shit.

The Greens getting a bump is nice.

 

[JHE]

Not sure why Clegg is smiling in that graphic. Holy shit.

They are all smiling, except Farage who is upset that his pint has been edited out.

 

[butchersapron]

 

[brogdale]

Green surge..LOL

SNP holding obviously holding up, though?

 

[butchersapron]

Look like - waiting to see the full data as TNS BMRB have been paying special attention to scotland.

 

[bemused]

SNP holding obviously holding up, though?

I hope the SNP do really well, it would be ironic is the main parties won the referendum then get demolished in the actual election.

 

[brogdale]

Look like - waiting to see the full data as TNS BMRB have been paying special attention to scotland.

TNS Tables show SNP still polling on 4% of UK popular vote.

All pretty rough etc....but a UK poll of 4% places the nationalists on 40 to 50% of the Scottish popular vote; (the Scottish electorate = approx 8.5% of the UK total).

 

[butchersapron]

TNS Tables show SNP still polling on 4% of UK popular vote.

All pretty rough etc....but a UK poll of 4% places the nationalists on 40 to 50% of the Scottish popular vote; (the Scottish electorate = approx 8.5% of the UK total).

They have SNP 35% Lab 33% for scotland if i've read that right.

 

[brogdale]

They have SNP 35% Lab 33% for scotland if i've read that right.

Yes, but that's such a small base the difference represents one response!

 

[butchersapron]

Yes, but that's such a small base the difference represents one response!

Ah but from 48% vs 23% or whatever it was in the others! Yes, you're right though, small crossbreaks not what we need to be looking at at all.

 

[William of Walworth]

I hope the SNP do really well, it would be ironic is the main parties won the referendum then get demolished in the actual election.

From a purely selfish South-of-the-border POV, I very much don't.

 

[killer b]

From a purely selfish South-of-the-border POV, I very much don't.

Absolutely, everything will be different with a labour majority government.

 

[killer b]

 

[William of Walworth]

Absolutely, everything will be different with a labour majority government.

Never claimed that now did I?

Just don't want a TORY majority government. Labour are bad no disagreements, but feel free to claim that the Tories wouldn't be that noticeable bit worse.