TBF, and back on topic, on current polling the chances of there being any prospect of either gaining a full majority are pretty minimal ...
Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
bemused
Well-Known Member
I don't care who wins, they are equally as awful. The differences between them is a rounding error.
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
I think the SNP surge may have put paid to a labour majority. This is shaping up to be the most unpredictable and atypical elections ever. However its safe to say that the tories will not get a majority - labour might scrape a very small one.
Interesting that since labour started toning down anything vaguely lefty sounding and indicating they will stick to the austerity script, their poll ratings have tanked - with the greens and SNP the main beneficiaries.
FiFi
Hot Cross Bunny
Good.
Maybe Labour will remember who it is supposed to represent.
miktheword
Well-Known Member
Labour has a five point lead over the Conservatives in the latest Opinium/Observer poll
Ed Miliband’s party has held steady on 33% – the same score as the previous poll two weeks ago – while the Conservatives have fallen by four points to 28%.
Nigel Farage’s Ukip has enjoyed a three point bounce and is up to 20%, while the Liberal Democrats are down one on 7% and the Greens up two on 6%. The SNP is up one point on 5%.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/17/labour-takes-lead-conservatives-cameron-opinium-poll
Ed Miliband’s party has held steady on 33% – the same score as the previous poll two weeks ago – while the Conservatives have fallen by four points to 28%.
Nigel Farage’s Ukip has enjoyed a three point bounce and is up to 20%, while the Liberal Democrats are down one on 7% and the Greens up two on 6%. The SNP is up one point on 5%.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/17/labour-takes-lead-conservatives-cameron-opinium-poll
ferrelhadley
There is no love between us anymore.
Greens and SNP seem to have done far more damage to Labour than the tories. Given UKIP will have chipped a good few of off them as well, the tories seem to be getting zero credit for the economy.
free spirit
more tea vicar?
I'd not realised the milliband's approval ratings were so much worse than the labour support, so presumably even 1/3 of labour voters don't support him as leader.
I knew his ratings were bad, but not that bad.
Clegg's are worse, but are actually better than the lib dem support, presumably due to some tories liking him or something.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
The latest Scottish Westminster poll (Panelbase):
SNP 41% (-4)
Labour 31% (-3)
Con 14% (-1)
UKIP 7% (=)
LD 3% (=)
Which gives this seat projection:
SNP - (35)
LAB - (20)
CON - (2)
UKIP - (-)
LDEM -(2)
SNP 41% (-4)
Labour 31% (-3)
Con 14% (-1)
UKIP 7% (=)
LD 3% (=)
Which gives this seat projection:
SNP - (35)
LAB - (20)
CON - (2)
UKIP - (-)
LDEM -(2)
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redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
That's a big gain for others, +8.
weepiper
I fix the machines that fight climate change
Greens, presumably
free spirit
more tea vicar?
makes no sense at all.
the percentages add up to 97%, so there can't have been an 8% move to others.
I'd suspect that either the +/- signs have got mixed up, and probably the SNP is actually up 4 not down 4.
weepiper
I fix the machines that fight climate change
free spirit
more tea vicar?
fair enough, could well be, I did look for the previous panel base polls but gave up.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
oliver and clegg, neck and neck in approval LOL
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Despite impressive sampling, Ashcroft's national polling has looked very erratic of late. That said, the Green trend is upward.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Not to 11% I don't think. Neither do I buy Labour at 28% -- whatever their woes/incompetencies, that looks like an artificially big drop below the current mean to me.
In other words I agree with you more generally about Ashcroft's sampling and figures.
Saying that, the most recent Guardian/ICM poll also shows a Green rise ...
Headline figs :
Lab 33% (nc)
Tory 30% (+2%)
LD 11% (-3%)
UKIP 11% (-3%)
Green 9% (+4%)
Other 7% (+1%)
Headline figs :
Lab 33% (nc)
Tory 30% (+2%)
LD 11% (-3%)
UKIP 11% (-3%)
Green 9% (+4%)
Other 7% (+1%)
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
latest you gov -
CON 32%, LAB 30%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15%, GRN 10%.
Their highest ever rating for the greens.
Labour must be getting pretty nervous about the amount of support they are leaching to the greens. Looks like reaffirming austerity isn't working out too well with the electors. Who'd have thought eh?
They had this in the bag - all they needed to do was keep hold of all those lib dem deserters - and they've fucked it.
CON 32%, LAB 30%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15%, GRN 10%.
Their highest ever rating for the greens.
Labour must be getting pretty nervous about the amount of support they are leaching to the greens. Looks like reaffirming austerity isn't working out too well with the electors. Who'd have thought eh?
They had this in the bag - all they needed to do was keep hold of all those lib dem deserters - and they've fucked it.
Only greater nightmare would be an Armed Forces Ruling Council and no more elections ever.
Maurice Picarda
Actually, might as well flounce.
I'm much more scared of hyper-localism and having to tweet my council to enable it to decide, by plebiscite, how much funding to provide to the MoD for a Trident replacement, and how long people need to have resided in the borough to qualify for a place in a short-stay seasonal live/work facility.
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