Political polling

[Roadkill]

My view is..

Or:

A sort of automotive-political version of Celebrity Deathmatch.

 

[Roadkill]

Actually, warming to my theme:

Cameron's the one in front.

 

[BigTom]

Or:

A sort of automotive-political version of Celebrity Deathmatch.

One for the post-revolutionary tv shows thread I reckon - Celebrity Deathcrash

 

[Zapp Brannigan]

Nick Clegg is in a car stalled on a level crossing. He can see the train coming but it just won't start.

 

[brogdale]

...and today's Survation...

Survation/Mirror :– CON 31%, LAB 30%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 23%, GRN 3% (tabs)

Anthony's commentary on today's polling..

All three polls have Labour and the Conservatives within one point of each other – Populus with Labour one ahead, Survation with the Tories one ahead, Ashcroft with them equal. There is more difference between the reported levels of support for the Greens and UKIP – Survation traditionally give UKIP their highest levels of support and have them up on 23% (this is clearly not just because of prompting, given ComRes, YouGov and Ashcroft also now include UKIP in their main prompt), in contrast Populus have UKIP on 13%. Green support is up at 9% in Ashcroft’s poll, but only at 3% in Survation’s. Unlike ComRes’s online polls (harsh turnout filtering) and Populus’s polls (disadvantageous weighting) there is nothing particularly unusual about Survation’s methods that would explain the low Green vote.

 

[weepiper]

Including the Nats

 

[William of Walworth]

Greens too low, UKIP too high in that Survation, just my reaction.

 

[DownwardDog]

...and JFF..here's Ashcroft's last focus group polling...



My view is..

DC: Range Rover Autobiography. Looks flash but comes with an absolute guarantee of disasterous unreliability.
Nick Clegg: Nissan Qashqai (leased)
Miliband: Oyster card smeared with human shit
Farage: Rover 75. The one with the decent BMW 4 pot diesel.

 

[weepiper]

 

[bemused]

I don't know anything about Welsh politics, why are Plaid so far behind UKIP?

 

[redsquirrel]

The Libscum will keep Orkney and Shetland surely. But longer term they aren't going to be an England only party so much as a SW regional party (+O&S)

 

[William of Walworth]

I don't know anything about Welsh politics, why are Plaid so far behind UKIP?

I live in Wales and I don't understand that either. UKIP have had bits of presence in some (limited?) locations here eg last year Farage addressed a meeting here in Swansea (we joined the anti protest outside, the thing being ten minutes walk from out house, and our lot outnumbered the people attending).

But more genererally? I don't see why Plaid are polling smaller than UKIP -- in all local polls, they've been moving beyond their old heartlands for a while now. You have to wonder about the methodology/sample size, etc of that poll.

 

[redsquirrel]

Why? This is hardly some rogue poll, UKIP support in Wales has been of that level for some time.

 

[Threshers_Flail]

I don't know anything about Welsh politics, why are Plaid so far behind UKIP?

I don't know much about Welsh politics either but I think the English dominated press definitely plays a part. A tabloid reader in Pontypridd is as pliant as one in Clacton unfortunately.

 

[butchersapron]

I don't know much about Welsh politics either but I think the English dominated press definitely plays a part. A tabloid reader in Pontypridd is as pliant as one in Clacton unfortunately.

I knew it was the fault of the english. That's the tabloids desperately running anti-ukip stories btw

 

[Threshers_Flail]

I knew it was the fault of the english. That's the tabloids desperately running anti-ukip stories btw

Come on the lack of a native press must surely play a part in UKIP polling well in Wales but not in Scotland? Despite the similarities between the two? It has to be a factor. I'm half English btw, and got out of Wales as soon as I could, so not another taffboy.

And the tabloids may be running anti-UKIP stories now that their polling is around the 20% mark but you can't argue that they have laid the groundwork for its emergence. Without the helping hand of the tabloids there would be no UKIP.

 

[JTG]

Welsh borders and Pembrokeshire aren't anything like the socialist paradises of Welsh fantasy you know

 

[butchersapron]

Come on the lack of a native press must surely play a part in UKIP polling well in Wales but not in Scotland? Despite the similarities between the two? It has to be a factor. I'm half English btw, and got out of Wales as soon as I could, so not another taffboy.

And the tabloids may be running anti-UKIP stories now that their polling is around the 20% mark but you can't argue that they have laid the groundwork for its emergence. Without the helping hand of the tabloids there would be no UKIP.

There's no english press in scotland?

It's great the tabloids are anti-UKIP - hence their support. Because of the tabloid support. But the english tabloids are what make UKIP successful in wales.

Oh come on, it's too late for this drivel.

 

[Threshers_Flail]

There's no english press in scotland?

It's great the tabloids are anti-UKIP - hence their support. Because of the tabloid support. But the english tabloids are what make UKIP successful in wales.

Oh come on, it's too late for this drivel.

It must be getting late as that second sentence makes no sense mate. And I'm sure the English rags get sold in Scotland, right alongside one of the several Scottish daily's. Wales ain't got a press of its own, just the Western Mail, which is pure wank.

 

[redsquirrel]

Yeah it must be the fault of the "English" press, those Welsh sheeple must have been tricked, they couldn't possibly be voting for UKIP for their own reasons.

 

[butchersapron]

It must be getting late as that second sentence makes no sense mate. And I'm sure the English rags get sold in Scotland, right alongside one of the several Scottish daily's. Wales ain't got a press of its own, just the Western Mail, which is pure wank.

The second line is your position - i agree that it makes no sense. Either factually or politically.

What are the best selling rags in scotland. Do you really imagine that any papers are on our side?

 

[Threshers_Flail]

Yeah it must be the fault of the "English" press, those Welsh sheeple must have been tricked, they couldn't possibly be voting for UKIP for their own reasons.

The influence of the press in creating an anti-immigrant narrative has played a part in the rise of UKIP on both sides of Offa's Dyke. The availability of newspapers that offer differing views in Scotland can negate such views becoming gospel. If Wales (and England) had a more diverse press things would probably be different.

 

[Threshers_Flail]

The second line is your position - i agree that it makes no sense. Either factually or politically.

What are the best selling rags in scotland. Do you really imagine that any papers are on our side?

That ain't my position mate, that drivel is of your own design. And no the papers aren't on our side, just that some may not be as evidently racist as others.

 

[butchersapron]

The influence of the press in creating an anti-immigrant narrative has played a part in the rise of UKIP on both sides of Offa's Dyke. The availability of newspapers that offer differing views in Scotland can negate such views becoming gospel. If Wales (and England) had a more diverse press things would probably be different.

Show us the different pro-immigrant press in scotland. The ones run and owned by the same people as the ones in england.

 

[butchersapron]

That ain't my position mate, that drivel is of your own design. And no the papers aren't on our side, just that some may not be as evidently racist as others.

Demonstrate it.

 

[butchersapron]

That ain't my position mate, that drivel is of your own design. And no the papers aren't on our side, just that some may not be as evidently racist as others.

Then show it's in their commercial interests to be less racist in Scotland and them actually doing this.

This is mental - UKIP rise in support in wales - english fault. Evidence- look at scotland where the exact sames shit is pumped out. If you think any of the big papers are 'english' rather than multi-national and not all dancing to the same tune then ...fucking hell

An english paper. In 2015. And that's what's doing all the bad things.

 

[redsquirrel]

The influence of the press in creating an anti-immigrant narrative has played a part in the rise of UKIP on both sides of Offa's Dyke. The availability of newspapers that offer differing views in Scotland can negate such views becoming gospel. If Wales (and England) had a more diverse press things would probably be different.

Apart from fact that polling shows that Scotland has much the same views on immigration as the rest of the UK.

 

[brogdale]

I don't know anything about Welsh politics, why are Plaid so far behind UKIP?

Not that it makes much difference within the confines of FPTP Welsh Westminster elections...

http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2015/01/27/one-hundred-days-to-go/

So what does that mean in terms of who represents us in parliament? Well, if the changes since the last general election implied by these figures were repeated uniformly across Wales, we would get the following outcome in terms of seats:

• Labour: 28 seats (+2)
• Conservatives: 8 seats (no change)
• Plaid Cymru: 3 seats (no change)
• Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (-2)

Only three seats, of the forty in Wales, would change hands: Cardiff North and Cardiff Central would both won by Labour (from the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats respectively); Brecon & Radnor would be narrowly gained by the Conservatives from the Liberal Democrats.

here’s an interesting paradox here. Party politics in the UK currently seems more uncertain and turbulent than for a long time –maybe more than it has ever been. We’ve seen big recent movements in the support levels of several parties, including the rise in Wales of UKIP and now a notable increase for the Greens. Yet, at the moment, a direct projection of poll findings produces only very small changes in terms of who wins which seats. We could be on course for an election in which lots of things change, but the basic fundamentals of which parties represent us in parliament are hardly disturbed.

 

[brogdale]

Such a tease...



...and trailing the constituency polling on Sky as well...

http://news.sky.com/story/1416764/snp-surge-is-real-says-pollster-lord-ashcroft

 

[weepiper]

The Libscum will keep Orkney and Shetland surely.

Currently predicted to lose them.

Such a tease...



...and trailing the constituency polling on Sky as well...

http://news.sky.com/story/1416764/snp-surge-is-real-says-pollster-lord-ashcroft

that Sky story is such bollocks.

Lord Ashcroft pointed to last year's Scottish independence referendum, where the SNP picked up 45% of the votes, as evidence of the surge.

We weren't fucking voting for the SNP. Stop telling us we were.