Political polling

[brogdale]

SNP up two percent since Jim Murphy became Scottish Labour leader.

Lol

 

[William of Walworth]

Just about zero poll change in Scotland then, bar the most miniscule of detail, maybe.

 

[danny la rouge]

Just about zero poll change in Scotland then, bar the most miniscule of detail, maybe.

Well, we were told by the media and the Labour Party to expect a "Murphy bounce". Even a dead cat would have bounced more; instead, he made a small dent in what everyone had assumed was rock bottom.

 

[brogdale]

Well, we were told by the media and the Labour Party to expect a "Murphy bounce". Even a dead cat would have bounced more; instead, he made a small dent in what everyone had assumed was rock bottom.

Exactly. As Smithson puts it...

If this were to be repeated at the General Election then the red team would almost be wiped out north of the border and the SNP would take in excess of 50 of Scotland’s 59 seats.

It goes almost without saying that losing 30+ MPs in Scotland makes LAB’s overall General Election challenge even greater and would almost certainly rule out the possibility of an overall majority. It would also put the SNP in a very strong position at Westminster in discussions over the post election government.

 

[danny la rouge]

And Murphy's response ("beer for everyone!") is the political equivalent of blurting out "Monkey tennis!" as security shows you to the door.

I had assumed Labour could go no lower. I was wrong.

 

[brogdale]

And Murphy's response ("beer for everyone!") is the political equivalent of blurting out "Monkey tennis!" as security shows you to the door.

I had assumed Labour could go no lower. I was wrong.

eh?
Have I missed something? Suddenly considering voting for ScotLab

 

[danny la rouge]

eh?
Have I missed something? Suddenly considering voting for ScotLab

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-30568135

Just as he learns the Survation results, this appears...

 

[brogdale]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-30568135

Just as he learns the Survation results, this appears...

Ah, OK...tft.
Booze at the footie...hmmm

 

[brogdale]

Telegraph has caught up with us and is now leading on this Survation poll...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/pol...w-poll-showing-depth-of-Labours-collapse.html

The prospect of a party set on Scottish independence holding close to one in six seats in Westminster could trigger fresh concerns for the state of the Union less than a year after Scots voted to stay in the UK by 55 per cent to 45 per cent.

Mr Salmond recently told The Independence there could be a "balanced" Parliament after the May election, adding: "That’s an opportunity to have delivered to Scotland what we have been promised" – a reference to the package of new powers which has been agreed for Holyrood.

 

[brogdale]

Not polling, but an interesting 'straw in the wind' nonetheless.

A recent leaflet from Gavlar Barfwell, (MP for Croydon Centrale, Shitgift Foundation and Hammersfield), sports no image of the party logo, its leader, nor any reference of the vermin party whatsoever....and all set in a green(ish) matrix.

The party that dare not speak its name!

https://insidecroydon.files.wordpress.com/2014/12/barwell-2.jpg

 

[Dogsauce]

Nice weasel words of 'I use the same hospital, same rail service and same shops as the people I represent'. Bet he packs his kids off somewhere expensive though. Plus the gilded elite haven't built their own private railway just yet.

 

[brogdale]

Nice weasel words of 'I use the same hospital, same rail service and same shops as the people I represent'. Bet he packs his kids off somewhere expensive though. Plus the gilded elite haven't built their own private railway just yet.

Yes, indeed. And Barfwell certainly doesn't find blowing his own trumpet difficult...

I believe that makes me a better MP

Better than?

 

[SpineyNorman]

Ah, OK...tft.
Booze at the footie...hmmm

if they bring back terracing and let you smoke as well i'll vote for it

 

[brogdale]

if they bring back terracing and let you smoke as well i'll vote for it

no mention of the pissing in bloke in front's pocket?

 

[brogdale]

Smithson has graphed the England only polling of the main outfits for December 2014 and included the 2010 GE %'s as a comparison....

Significant change and variation between the pollsters...but the vermin are presently in all sorts of bother.

 

[Fez909]

Smithson has graphed the England only polling of the main outfits for December 2014 and included the 2010 GE %'s as a comparison....

Significant change and variation between the pollsters...but the vermin are presently in all sorts of bother.

What would be nice would be a way to see how they did in the previous election. Who was closest to the actual result?

 

[Dogsauce]

Still way too many tory votes in England. Can the provinces where they are popular secede please? Lets see how surrey/kent etc. go it alone, I guess it'd be a bit like Daily Mail Island.

 

[butchersapron]

What would be nice would be a way to see how they did in the previous election. Who was closest to the actual result?

These is how the large pollsters fared in 2010:



Must be remembered that this is final results (and not strictly predictions) a day/day before the election - to compare them with the results they had for december 2009 - and you must remember that though these figures arenot intended to not reflect/capture the 2010 result but the decemeber 2009 picture (that's tory/lab/LD/Tory lead below btw):

 

[Fez909]

These is how the large pollsters fared in 2010:

View attachment 65426

Must be remembered that this is final results (and not strictly predictions) a day/day before the election - to compare them with the results they had for december 2009 - and you must remember that though these figures arenot intended to not reflect/capture the 2010 result but the decemeber 2009 picture (that's tory/lab/LD/Tory lead below btw):

View attachment 65427

Very interesting, thanks.

Not sure how much you can take from it, though, seeing as almost everyone got the Lib Dems wrong. They had that last minute surge due to Clegg's popularity in the debates, I suppose, which of course wasn't/couldn't be known about here.

If we ignore the Lib Dems, though, then most of them matched the final results pretty closely. Does this mean Labour/Tory support is unlikely to change much between now and the election?

 

[Fez909]

Looking again: although most of them were in the right area, all bar one showed stronger support for the Tories than they got in the results, and more than half showed less support for Labour than at the election.

I don't remember anything happening to make Labour more popular in the run-up, so was this down to Tory fuck-ups or Lib Dem gains or..?

 

[The Boy]

Folk saying Lib Dem in surveys then switching to Labour as an anti-Tory vote presumably?

 

[butchersapron]

The interesting one from the last chart is the tory lead one - note it steadily came down from December to may. So if the next election follows the same path we might expect the same, a slow tory claw back - and that was sort of what happened over the last month - but the lib-dem implosion, the rise of UKIP and the increased non big 3/4 parties vote means we really cannot expect a replay with any confidence.

 

[Dogsauce]

I remember lib dems doing a lot worse than people expected, there was an air of expectation but I think people decided at the last minute to back the other parties, perhaps scared of wasting their vote. I wonder if UKIP might face a similar fate? I can see some kippers switching back to the vermin, worried about red Ed, especially if the polls suggest the possibility of a tory victory (if it's not going to happen they might as well back Farage). I can also see a more concerted media campaign (or just increased scrutiny) which does seem to be landing some punches on UKIP, the weekly resignations/sackings are beginning to look a bit chaotic.

 

[butchersapron]

Here's the end of year of year labour lead figure for every major pollster:

Opinium 7
TNS 7
Survtn 5
ICM 5
YouGov 4
ComRe 3
Ashcroft 1
Populus 0
IpsosM -3

 

[brogdale]

Here's the end of year of year labour lead figure for every major pollster:

Opinium 7
TNS 7
Survtn 5
ICM 5
YouGov 4
ComRe 3
Ashcroft 1
Populus 0
IpsosM -3

Smithson continues to zero in on the England only percentages....and strugles to see how the vermin can match their 2010 EO seat haul.

...it’s the impact of 2010 CON votes seeping to Farage’s party that will be most important. There are just signs in the marginals at least that faced with the prospect of a Miliband government some will return.

The reason the Tories have struggled against LAB is not because of blue red switchers. The latter has suffered less seepage to the purples and, of course, has done well from the collapse of the LDs.

At the moment I find hard to see how the Tories can get more than 280 seats overall which is the current sell level on the spread markets.

 

[William of Walworth]

May have been posted already in another Scotland-focussed thread, this (apols if so)

But Guardian today (Sat) was zeroing in on their/ICM's latest Scotland-only poll ...

SNP are going to walk it North of the border next May, from the above

 

[butchersapron]

May have been posted already in another Scotland-focussed thread, this (apols if so)

But Guardian today (Sat) was zeroing in on their/ICM's latest Scotland-only poll ...

SNP are going to walk it North of the border next May, from the above

Bet you they don't.

 

[William of Walworth]

Will bet you a (post May!) pint butchersapron , but not with any confidence atm ...

 

[Quartz]

A week is a long time in politics, and there's a long way to go before the election.

 

[Lo Siento.]

Will bet you a (post May!) pint butchersapron , but not with any confidence atm ...

he's always right, the bastard.