Political polling

[articul8]

That's pretty good reading for labour and pretty bad for articul8

Why?

 

[brogdale]

SNP 5% across the UK! That's bonkers. What sample numbers are we talking here?

We've been over this (on the previous page http://www.urban75.net/forums/threads/political-polling.307208/page-38#post-13541015)

It means that the nationalists are polling 50%+ in Scotland.

 

[weepiper]

We've been over this (on the previous page http://www.urban75.net/forums/threads/political-polling.307208/page-38#post-13541015)

It means that the nationalists are polling 50%+ in Scotland.

i get that but it's still pretty startling to see.

 

[brogdale]

i get that but it's still pretty startling to see.

Oh yeah; Sample 1004

 

[brogdale]

Looking exclusively at the 533 English constituencies in Ashcroft's polling puts UKIP on 22%. And just look what that does to the vermin....the 'kippers are warfarin.

The [tories] secured 39.2% of the English vote against Labour’s 28.1. The poll today has LAB with a 6% lead in England thus suggesting an 8.5% swing to it from the blues since the last general election.

This is far far larger than anything we have seen for quite some time in the full GB polls.

One factor is that it is in England where UKIP has prospered most and, indeed, Farage’s party has 22% in today’s survey.

What strikes me is that the inclusion of Wales and mostly Scotland in the GB figures mean that the UKIP surge has been understated in the part of the UK where 95% of the LAB-CON marginals are.

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/11/24/labours-scottish-crisis-is-masking-what-could-be-even-more-significant-the-tory-collapse-in-england/

 

[JTG]

Yeah but eternal Tory majority if Scotland leaves. Hang on...

 

[brogdale]

and a reminder that Ashcroft's polls (albeit volatile) are conducted by phone polling...

Lab on-line > phone
Con on-line = phone
LD on-line < phone
UKIP on-line > phone
GR on-line > phone

 

[brogdale]

The 'kippers don't buy the vermin's "recovery"...

 

[butchersapron]

ComRes polling of marginals - 40 closest tory/labour seats:

LAB 39%(-2)
Con31%(+1)
UKIP 18%(+1)
LDEM 7%(+1)

Brief look and link to tabs here.

 

[brogdale]

Ashcroft's excited about decapitation...

 

[brogdale]

ComRes polling of marginals - 40 closest tory/labour seats:

LAB 39%(-2)
Con31%(+1)
UKIP 18%(+1)
LDEM 7%(+1)

Brief look and link to tabs here.

In these English marginals Labour are clearly hanging on to the shed LDs, and the vermin are still hurt by the drift to UKIP, but for every Con/Lab marginal south of the border, there's a Lab/SNP one north of it.

 

[butchersapron]

In these English marginals Labour are clearly hanging on to the shed LDs, and the vermin are still hurt by the drift to UKIP, but for every Con/Lab marginal south of the border, there's a Lab/SNP one north of it.

I think it'd take the current very high polling to put the SNP/Labour marginals anywhere near 20 - whereas there's circa 100 in labour/tory where a 5% swing to labour would win the seat - and the same the other way, labour seats that a small swing to tory would win for them.

 

[brogdale]

I think it'd take the current very high polling to put the SNP/Labour marginals anywhere near 20 - whereas there's circa 100 in labour/tory where a 5% swing to labour would win the seat - and the same the other way, labour seats that a small swing to tory would win for them.

But still a sound (polling) case for including many scot's seats in the marginal category? Smithson appears to be hinting that Ashcroft might be including some in his marginal poling.

 

[butchersapron]

But still a sound (polling) case for including many scot's seats in the marginal category? Smithson appears to be hinting that Ashcroft might be including some in his marginal poling.

I certainly would, esp if i was after some mischief making - which Ashcroft does seem to be. Yesterday he was playing up the possibility of a doncaster decapitation if tories switched to UKIP - meaning UKIP must be in 2nd in that seat in his polling. We'll see later anyway.

 

[butchersapron]

Ashcroft stuff rolling - UKIP/Tory could help labour kill Clegg:

 

[butchersapron]

Lib-dems doing better in the seats they hold where they are challenged by tories than nationally:

 

[butchersapron]

UKIP turning seat after seat into three way marginals 6 months before the election.

 

[Dogsauce]

I guess Cameron is a bit more secure than the other three then? A direct UKIP challenge to him would actually be pretty funny. Maybe they can get Clarkson to stand.

 

[butchersapron]

I guess Cameron is a bit more secure than the other three then? A direct UKIP challenge to him would actually be pretty funny. Maybe they can get Clarkson to stand.

He's safe as houses - and ashcroft wouldn't dare poll that seat anyway!

 

[butchersapron]

Summary

 

[brogdale]

Ashcroft stuff rolling - UKIP/Tory could help labour kill Clegg:

Rather bizarrely Smithson headlines those numbers by saying "Farage in trouble in Thanet South.."

So that's..

Con 34% (-14)
UKIP 29% (+23)
Lab 26% (-5)
LD 7% (-8)

..and it's Farage that's "in trouble" ?

 

[butchersapron]

Rather bizarrely Smithson headlines those numbers by saying "Farage in trouble in Thanet South.."

So that's..

Con 34% (-14)
UKIP 29% (+23)
Lab 26% (-5)
LD 7% (-8)

..and it's Farage that's "in trouble" ?

Over excited by last two UKIP wins and suggestion he should have stood in first.

 

[danny la rouge]

"Uniform swing is now worse than useless – it is positively misleading"

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/12/01/uniform-swing-rip/

 

[butchersapron]

Ashcroft has amended that donacaster poll and apologised for a series of rather large errors:

Corrected data tables are below, as is an amended summary of the results. In a nutshell, Labour lead UKIP by 29 points in Doncaster North, not twelve; Miliband leads Cameron as best PM by 14 points, not one point; Miliband’s constituents would rather see him as PM than Cameron; they give him the highest ratings of the four main party leaders, not the third highest; and they trust Miliband and Balls more on the economy than Cameron and Osborne, not the reverse.

 

[miktheword]

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/dec/06/observer-opinium-poll-autumn-statement-labour-lead

Labour has stretched its lead over the Tories to five-points but now lags further behind the Conservatives on the crucial issue of economic credibility, according to the latest Observer/Opinium poll.


Is there a separate vote on 'economic competence' at general elections?

 

[butchersapron]

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/dec/06/observer-opinium-poll-autumn-statement-labour-lead

Labour has stretched its lead over the Tories to five-points but now lags further behind the Conservatives on the crucial issue of economic credibility, according to the latest Observer/Opinium poll.


Is there a separate vote on 'economic competence' at general elections?

They are so desperate to get that 'but' in. Each poll it's a different 'but'.

 

[treelover]

Ashcroft stuff rolling - UKIP/Tory could help labour kill Clegg:

Sheffield Hallam with a few exceptions is a pretty affluent seat, does this mean many of the wealthy, possibly ex tories there will be voting UKIP?

 

[brogdale]

Smithson continues to highlight just how badly the vermin are scoring in English parliamentary constituencies...

 

[Kaka Tim]

Greens outpolling the lib dems by 2% in the latest you gov - a first.

CON 32%, LAB 34%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 14%, GRN 8%.

 

[free spirit]

Ashcroft stuff rolling - UKIP/Tory could help labour kill Clegg:

So, if in Sheffield Hallam, would it be ok to vote or even campaign for labour?

I'm not in Sheffield Hallam, but that does look like there's a massive coalition scalp to be had there. I'd love him to get kicked out on his arse.