Political polling

[Quartz]

OK, so look at the Scotland specific polls with larger samples that back up this smaller number

You mean like the one they lost 55 to 45? And much of that 45 was in Glasgow? The one which showed that there was great variety in SNP support?

 

[weepiper]

edit: article
sample size of 1001

 

[brogdale]

You mean like the one they lost 55 to 45? And much of that 45 was in Glasgow? The one which showed that there was great variety in SNP support?

No, ones like this from 30-10-2014.
Sample size 1078. SNP on 43%.

 

[JTG]

You mean like the one they lost 55 to 45? And much of that 45 was in Glasgow? The one which showed that there was great variety in SNP support?

I wasn't aware that the SNP was available as an option in that particular ballot

 

[Sue]

You mean like the one they lost 55 to 45? And much of that 45 was in Glasgow? The one which showed that there was great variety in SNP support?

You live in Scotland, you followed (and contributed to) the referendum thread. You know better than this, surely...?

 

[brogdale]

Some reading for Quartz

http://newleftreview.org/II/89/neil-davidson-a-scottish-watershed

....for the majority of Yes campaigners, the movement was not primarily about supporting the SNP, nor even about Scottish nationalism in a wider sense. As a political ideology, nationalism—any nationalism, relatively progressive or absolutely reactionary—involves two inescapable principles: that the national group should have its own state, regardless of the social consequences; and that what unites the national group is more significant than what divides it, above all class. By contrast, the main impetus for the Yes campaign was not nationalism, but a desire for social change expressed through the demand for self-determination. It was on this basis that independence was taken up by a broad range of socialists, environmentalists and feminists.

In 2013, a Westminster Coalition spokesman said that a ‘crushing defeat’ was needed: if 40 per cent or more of the population backed calls for independence, ‘pressure could build’. [34] In the absence of that crushing defeat the Labour leadership, seeing housing schemes like Northfield in Aberdeen, Fintry in Dundee, Craigmillar in Edinburgh or Drumchapel in Glasgow awaken to political life, must be recalling the words of that arch-Unionist Sir Walter Scott to Robert Southey, shortly before the Scottish General Strike of 1820: ‘The country is mined beneath our feet.’ [35] Indeed it is.

 

[Quartz]

No, ones like this from 30-10-2014.
Sample size 1078. SNP on 43%.

That's better, but does it take into account the highly regional nature of SNP (edit: and Lib Dem) support? I'll also note that it under-emphasises Unionist support: on page 3 it says 47% of those polled said they voted Yes and 50% said they voted No and the weighting table (under Political Party Identification) indicates that not only did they not correct for this but they emphasised Nationalist support.

I trust you found the Trust / Do Not Trust figures suitably amusing? I'm shocked - shocked I tell you - that Cameron is on 70% Do Not Trust.

 

[brogdale]

That's better, but does it take into account the highly regional nature of SNP (edit: and Lib Dem) support? I'll also note that it under-emphasises Unionist support: on page 3 it says 47% of those polled said they voted Yes and 50% said they voted No and the weighting table (under Political Party Identification) indicates that not only did they not correct for this but they emphasised Nationalist support.

I trust you found the Trust / Do Not Trust figures suitably amusing? I'm shocked - shocked I tell you - that Cameron is on 70% Do Not Trust.

In England we too have regionally differentiated party support; doesn't mean that the tories aren't on 29% and nuLab 30%, does it?

 

[Quartz]

In England we too have regionally differentiated party support

But is it differentiated to the same degree? The swings in government would suggest not.

 

[brogdale]

But is it differentiated to the same degree? The swings in government would suggest not.

You're not making sense.

 

[JTG]

But is it differentiated to the same degree? The swings in government would suggest not.

Eh?

There are parts of England (swathes of the Home Counties for eg) where Labour support is miniscule to the point of being invisible. Ditto the Tory vote in areas of the north of England

 

[Quartz]

There are parts of England (swathes of the Home Counties for eg) where Labour support is miniscule to the point of being invisible. Ditto the Tory vote in areas of the north of England

Don't underestimate the Tory vote, or rather, those who entertain the possibility of voting Tory. And there are other parties. For instance, Windsor & Maidenhead, a true-blue constituency if ever there were one, has been becoming a Tory / LD marginal. And places like Yorkshire have both Tory and Labour MPs. And places in the north, like (picking Barnsley at random) Penistone & Stockridge, a split-off of Barnsley, are Tory / Labour marginals. Barnsley Central, another offshoot, is solidly Labour, BTW.

 

[JTG]

Yeah I know

That's not what I was saying really

 

[danny la rouge]

You mean like the one they lost 55 to 45?

People were not voting Yes or No to the SNP in the referendum, they were voting Yes or No to independence.

And much of that 45 was in Glasgow?

Glasgow is the biggest city in Scotland, with about 24% of the Scottish population. Much of any Scotland-wide population percentage will be in Glasgow. And again, while there was a Yes majority, there wasn't an SNP majority in that poll, as that wasn't what was being asked. (And indeed, when it has been asked in elections, there has not ever been an SNP majority in Glasgow).

Look at the electoral history of Greater Glasgow. Indeed look at Scotland as a whole - there are vanishingly few Labour/SNP marginals. Or should I say "were"? We'll see. (This is where I'd sound a note of caution to SNP supporters: when May comes and your party doesn't quite achieve the wipeout the polls suggest, this will be presented as a "Damp Squib For SNP").

The one which showed that there was great variety in SNP support?

Well, we can extrapolate that the SNP stronghold in the North East didn't vote for independence, but that rather undermines your suggestion of SNP-Yes equivalence.

Mind you, recent opinion polls seem to show that Yes voters have swung behind the SNP (although that is not the same as the reverse - we can't say that previous SNP voters have swung behind independence).

 

[brogdale]

Latest Scottish polling still points to NuLab melt-down, though not quite such a complete implosion as suggested by the earlier IPSOS-Mori poll that had NuLab getting 1 seat.

Survation's numbers (change on Survation's Sept numbers)...

SNP 46% (=9), Lab 24% (-15), Con 17% (-1), LD 6% (+3)....

give NuLab 5 seats.

 

[brogdale]

This afternoon there was also some reporting of a new Opinium poll (tabs here). Opinium don’t seem to have officially released voting intention figures, but they are provided as crossbreaks on a new poll, so we can see that the VI figures would have been:-

CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 5%, UKIP 18%, GRN 4%.

This would be the first Tory lead from Opinium since the Omnishambles budget, and the lowest any poll has shown the Lib Dems so far this Parliament.

 

[Quartz]

...

They're lumping the 'No opinion' people in with the 'Don't knows' which seems a bit off. You can know that something isn't going to affect your vote.

 

[brogdale]

They're lumping the 'No opinion' people in with the 'Don't knows' which seems a bit off. You can know that something isn't going to affect your vote.

What are you quoting?

 

[Quartz]

What are you quoting?

Your quote of the Opinium poll.

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

Somebody on Political Betting asked if Yes was over-reported during indyref then is SNP support being over represented as well now? I thought it was a fair question

 

[William of Walworth]

Somebody on Political Betting asked if Yes was over-reported during indyref then is SNP support being over represented as well now? I thought it was a fair question

I wondered that too. I certainly think you wouldn't go far wrong (if you were a betting man, which I'm not) to punt on the actual GE outcome for the SNP ending up at a significantly lower level than shown in current polls.

Can't easily believe that Labour getting themselves a new leader in Scotland can make their standing worse than current leaderless levels. However much of an arse Jim Murphy** might be politically , he will at the very least be more organised.

**(I'm assuming for the state of discussion that Labour's new leader in Scotland will be him. Who knows though?)

 

[danny la rouge]

I wondered that too. I certainly think you wouldn't go far wrong (if you were a betting man, which I'm not) to punt on the actual GE outcome for the SNP ending up at a significantly lower level than shown in current polls.

Can't easily believe that Labour getting themselves a new leader in Scotland can make their standing worse than current leaderless levels. However much of an arse Jim Murphy** might be politically , he will at the very least be more organised.

**(I'm assuming for the state of discussion that Labour's new leader in Scotland will be him. Who knows though?)

This may interest you:

http://paulhutcheon.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/scottish-labour-tensions-part-54.html

 

[miktheword]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/22/labour-three-point-lead-tories-poll-ed-miliband

Labour has maintained a three-point lead over the Tories in the latest Opinium/Observer poll, which shows a minor improvement in Ed Miliband’s leadership ratings and widespread scepticism about Tory pledges to cut taxes after the next election.

The poll – taken between Tuesday and Thursday last week and before the results of the Rochester and Strood byelection and the fall-out from the “white van” tweeting row – puts Labour on 33% (up one point on a fortnight ago), and the Conservatives also up one on 30%.

 

[brogdale]

Today's Populus (online panel-base) poll..

 

[butchersapron]

Today's Populus (online panel-base) poll..

That's pretty good reading for labour and pretty bad for articul8

 

[brogdale]

...and for fellow 'anoraks'....Smithson has undertaken a little, limited research of his own into the apparent discrepancy between on-line and phone-based methods of polling...

Basically.... Lab on-line > phone
Con on-line = phone
LD on-line < phone
UKIP on-line > phone
GR on-line > phone

e2a...and...I should have said..
phone polling = IPSOS-Mori, ICM, ComRes(phone) & Ashcroft
on-line, panel-base = Populus, YouGov, Opinium, ComRes (online) & Survation

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/in...-while-the-phone-surveys-best-for-ld-and-grn/

 

[brogdale]

Anthony from YG awards the Express this year's "coveted UKPR crap media reporting of polls award" for this headline...

Full tabs for the YouGov/Sun on Sunday poll are now up here. The slightly larger sample than usual was to make sure they had a good sub-sample of Sun readers, which the Sun used in yesterday’s analysis of the poll to look at what their own readers thought. The Express, however, has decided to report the Sun reader crossbreak as a national poll – obviously it wins the coveted UKPR crap media reporting of polls award. Just to be crystal clear UKIP are not in second place in this poll. The headline figures for this poll were CON 33%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 15%. The figures quoted in the Express relate only to respondents who read the Sun.

 

[Dogsauce]

Someone should tell the commentators on that Express article. I haven't quite the heart to burst their bubble.

 

[brogdale]

Ashcroft's weekly national poll is not good news for the vermin...

Labour are five points ahead in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll, conducted over the past weekend. Labour’s share is up two points since last week at 32%, with the Conservatives down two at 27%, the Liberal Democrats down two at 7%, UKIP up two at 18%, the Greens unchanged on 7% and the SNP up one point at 5%.

...and Smithson has the English numbers...

 

[weepiper]

SNP 5% across the UK! That's bonkers. What sample numbers are we talking here?