Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
LtV methodology varies between pollsters, and this is one factor that can lead to different polling numbers. In the case of the Ipsos-MORI poll they ask their sample to estimate how likely they are to vote on a numerical, (0 - 10), scale. Then, if they want to produce numbers that reflect the preferences of those "absolutely certain to vote" they restrict their analysis to those in the sample describing their likelyhood to vote as 10/10.brogdale : the 'certain to vote' number as a proportion of exactly what whole though?
Has anyone analysed that convincingly, because I'd struggle to even start .... </relies on wonkery>
The %s relate to the particular column in which they fall, for instance that 30% Con in the first "Total" column is calculated by finding 247 (Con pref) as a % of 822 (Total voting) = 30%. Whereas, in the second ("Absolutely certain") column, the 32% Con derives from 178 as a % of 556 = 32%.
The overall "Total voting" figure is calculated by taking the overall total sample, (1011 people interviewed), minus those stating that they are "undecided", "would not vote", "refused" or "will vote for another party but don't know which". In the case of this poll those numbers were 1011 - 99, 79, 8 & 3 = 822.
miktheword
Well-Known Member
Labour poll lead grows to four points – but only 1 in 5 sees Miliband as PM
Level of support for Labour leader to head country falls but party’s predicted vote share remains strong despite infighting
Guardian..still all presidential.. just can't help themselves
http://www.theguardian.com/politics...d-grows-miliband-prime-minister-support-falls
also
Labour also ahead on Yougov:
Britain Elects @britainelects · 1m1 minute ago
National Opinion Poll (YouGov)
LAB - 33% (+1)
CON - 31% (-2)
UKIP - 18% (+3)
LDEM - 7% (-1)
GRN - 5% (-1)
Level of support for Labour leader to head country falls but party’s predicted vote share remains strong despite infighting
Guardian..still all presidential.. just can't help themselves
http://www.theguardian.com/politics...d-grows-miliband-prime-minister-support-falls
also
Labour also ahead on Yougov:
Britain Elects @britainelects · 1m1 minute ago
National Opinion Poll (YouGov)
LAB - 33% (+1)
CON - 31% (-2)
UKIP - 18% (+3)
LDEM - 7% (-1)
GRN - 5% (-1)
Last edited:
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
That ComRes/SIndy 19% for UKIP is of some interest; Anthony @YG points out that ComRes are in a process of methodological change, moving towards consistent prompting of UKIP. The implication of the latest number (comparing like with like) is that UKIP are actually -5 on last month. Though, of course, this is only one poll...
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
The tables for that YG are still showing the following:-
- Labour holding more of 2010 vote ("core"?) than tories; 77% >71%
- LDs only retaining 27% 2010 vote
- Labour gaining twice as much as tories from exLDs 30% > 15%
- UKIP over twice a likely to gain ex-tories as ex-Lab 22% > 10%
- Greens picking up 4 X as many from LD than Lab 12% > 3%
- LDs still getting smashed in two age cohorts most affected by fees
- Tories still reliant on the oldies living in the SE.(without them they'd struggle to be at 27%).
Sasaferrato
Super Refuser!
Anyone who kicks themselves to the top of any organisation has more than a touch of psychopathy.
I'm surprised that no one is mentioning the SNP, who, God forbid, could be the power brokers if the Labour vote in Scotland does turn out to be as dismal as the polls predict.
What I hope is that those of us who voted NO! will support Labour and <spits> the Lib Dems. This next election will be more about who you don't want to win, than whom you do want to win. I will be voting and canvassing for Labour at the next Scottish elections, and voting for them next year in the GE.
I thought you were a Tory?
Sasaferrato
Super Refuser!
You are some years behind the times. I was a Tory voter, however, the current government disgusts me. I would not consider voting Tory again ever (well, only when the current leading clique goes, and they will likely outlive me.) again.
I had been a Conservative supporter for 46 years.
Yes. I would not be surprised to see an informal Lib Dem / Labour agreement to this effect.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Eh? You think labour will call on labour no voters to vote lib dem?
Last edited:
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
I would; very.
In which constituencies do you expect Labour to informally ask their supporters to vote Lib Dem?
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
Orkney & Shetland is one constituency for Westminster. It's never ever been Labour since parties began.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Not much an agreement then really is it? They already generally don't campaign strongly in areas they know they're never going to win. But this time and specifically in scottish seats they are going to do the exact opposite of what you say because of the wider disgust at lib-dems and the chance to make inroads on their traditional vote.
That hasn't stopped them trying. I think Mr Carmichael is pretty safe but with the increased political activity, why tempt fate?
Really? Gordon, for instance, was a 4-way marginal. Berwickshire and West Aberdeenshire are LD / Tory marginals - better a LD than a Tory!
According to latest polling, yes really
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
So let's get this right - you first argue that in these seats labour will do an informal deal with the lib-dems to not try too hard. Then you follow this up by arguing that they will try in these seats as they have done so in the past.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
What makes you think the tories will win that seat from 4th rather than the SNP or labour?
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Today's Ashcroft weekly National poll...vermin struggling to break out of the 20's, and the combined "big 2" total <60% for third week running.
Con 29%, Lab 30%, LD 9%, UKIP 16%, Greens 7% & SNP 4%.
Con 29%, Lab 30%, LD 9%, UKIP 16%, Greens 7% & SNP 4%.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
I wonder if lib dems want proper PR now?
Sasaferrato
Super Refuser!
What's 4% as MPs? about 26? The Scottish polling is showing SNP prospective number as 40. I wonder if sufficient weight is being given to the Scottish situation, because that is where Labour is most vulnerable. Fucking ironic, isn't it. If you had told me ten years ago that I would be voting for Labour in national elections, I would have said you were barking.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
What's 4% as MPs? about 26? The Scottish polling is showing SNP prospective number as 40. I wonder if sufficient weight is being given to the Scottish situation, because that is where Labour is most vulnerable. Fucking ironic, isn't it. If you had told me ten years ago that I would be voting for Labour in national elections, I would have said you were barking.
4% nationally. Not in scotland. ffs. They're only 8% of the state.
I'm not sure that's the case. The SNP is a regional party (duh), and, per Q1, they only polled 88 people in Scotland, of whom only 62 were certain to vote. That's ~1 per (Westminster) constituency. I find it difficult to believe that that is a reasonable sample to make any prognostications about Scotland.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
I'm 88 people - i've never been polled.
OK, so look at the Scotland specific polls with larger samples that back up this smaller number
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
- The total number of UK parliamentary electors in 2013 was 46,139,900, a fall of 0.5% from 2012.
- On December 1, 2011:
- 4.01 million people were registered to vote in the local government and Scottish Parliament elections – an increase of 23,250 (0.6 per cent) compared to December 1, 2010
- 3.94 million people were registered to vote in UK Parliament elections – an increase of 12,613 (0.3 per cent)
- So the Scottish electorate = 8.5% of total for UK parliamentary elections.
- Recent polls have put SNP support between 40 & 50%.
- Hence 4% of the UK polling.
- Simples.
Similar threads
