Political polling

[Quartz]

I really don't see Aberdeen South going SNP.

 

[brogdale]

I really don't see Aberdeen South going SNP.

36% unassailable?

 

[Quartz]

36% unassailable?

Anne Begg seems to be a good MP and the SNP are nowhere.

 

[JTG]

36% unassailable?

c12% SNP last time but a hefty (c28%) Lib Dem vote which seems sure to collapse and go... somewhere. I wouldn't feel that comfortable if I were them

 

[brogdale]

c12% SNP last time but a hefty (c28%) Lib Dem vote which seems sure to collapse and go... somewhere. I wouldn't feel that comfortable if I were them

Yep...ConDems = 50% in 2010...they won't get that again.

 

[brogdale]

Anne Begg seems to be a good MP and the SNP are nowhere.

You seem to be in denial.

 

[Quartz]

You seem to be in denial.

Not really. I've written to her on a number of issues and had a generally good response; other people generally seem to regard her well as a constituency MP. Now, if she were to die or stand down, all bets would be off.

 

[JTG]

She may well be highly regarded, I can quite believe that she is. But 36% of the vote is hardly a rock solid foundation on which to secure re-election in the context of what appears to be (from here in the West Country) the loss of significant sections of the Scottish Labour vote. Even if she were to lose fewer votes than in other parts of Scotland due to personal popularity, she would appear to be vulnerable to the swing to the SNP from Lib Dem/Labour suggested by this recent poll

 

[Quartz]

She may well be highly regarded, I can quite believe that she is. But 36% of the vote is hardly a rock solid foundation on which to secure re-election in the context of what appears to be (from here in the West Country) the loss of significant sections of the Scottish Labour vote.

This area voted solidly against independence, so I don't see a swing to the SNP; I do see a swing away from the Lib Dems to Labour - they're not going to go to the Tories instead, are they?

But we're 7 months from the election. That's a very long time indeed in politics.

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

It's one of those rare times I'm tempted to think Quartz is probably right

 

[treelover]

She may well be highly regarded, I can quite believe that she is. But 36% of the vote is hardly a rock solid foundation on which to secure re-election in the context of what appears to be (from here in the West Country) the loss of significant sections of the Scottish Labour vote. Even if she were to lose fewer votes than in other parts of Scotland due to personal popularity, she would appear to be vulnerable to the swing to the SNP from Lib Dem/Labour suggested by this recent poll

Anne Begg was disabilities minister under NL, she helped bring in the savage welfare reforms.

 

[JTG]

Since when has voting for the SNP correlated with support for independence? It's fairly clear that isn't the case

 

[brogdale]

...and last night's polling numbers...

YouGov have two new polls out tonight – the regular GB poll for the Sun, plus a new Scottish poll for the Times. The regular GB (Westminster) poll has topline figures of:-

CON 33%, LAB 32%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%, putting the Conservatives ahead by a margin.

Meanwhile the Scottish poll in the time has topline Westminster voting intentions of:-

CON 15%, LAB 27%, LDEM 4%, SNP 43%.

It isn’t as extreme as the Ipsos MORI poll we saw earlier today, but it’s still a very solid lead for the SNP in Scotland, and one that on a uniform swing would translate into the SNP getting a hefty majority of Scottish seats.

 

[Dogsauce]

Watch the SNP join a tory-led coalition. Imagine the wailing, it'd be worse than the Lib Dem betrayal.

Maybe Cameron's decision to have a Scottish referendum wasn't so stupid after all, it's done them no harm.

 

[JTG]

I would imagine that the kind of extreme swing to one party illustrated by the Scottish polls are harder for the pollsters' methods to pin down exactly, hence the large difference between the YG and Ipsos/MORI polls in terms of SNP share. They certainly seem to have picked up a significant mood change though

 

[brogdale]

Watch the SNP join a tory-led coalition. Imagine the wailing, it'd be worse than the Lib Dem betrayal.

Maybe Cameron's decision to have a Scottish referendum wasn't so stupid after all, it's done them no harm.

With one MP and about 8 members, it never could do them any harm. The genius was to allow NuLab's existential fear of losing it's Scot's block to desperately plead on their behalf....resulting in them err...losing their block of Scottish MPs.

 

[Quartz]

Do you really see the Tories as the anything-but-the-SNP party? Or maybe Scotland is ripe for a UKIP revolution?

 

[danny la rouge]

http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/10/31/labours-scottish-nightmare/

What YouGov's new Scotland poll says about the rise of the SNP, the disappearance of 'red Nats', and the potential for a new 'normal' in Scottish politics

In the 2010 general election, twice as many people voted Labour as SNP. A year later, in the elections to Holyrood, the SNP comfortably defeated Labour. Whenever YouGov asked Scots about the two kinds of elections, we found a large difference. Many voters wanted SNP to govern Scotland, but Labour to govern Britain.

Now the difference has almost completely disappeared. Labour has been swept aside by an SNP surge on both fronts. The SNP leads Labour by 16 points in general election voting (a massive 19 per cent swing since 2010), and by 18 points in Holyrood voting (a far more modest two per cent swing since 2011).

Labour must face the hard truth that it is suffering not a brief setback but a more fundamental loss of respect. Just 31 per cent of Scots who voted Labour in 2010 now think the party ‘represents the views and interests of Scotland today’ very or fairly well. Fully 59 per cent think the party does this job very or fairly badly. Those are truly terrible figures. If Labour can’t reverse them by next May, its prospects north of the border are bleak indeed.

 

[William of Walworth]

Surely these most recent polls in Scotland have been influenced massively by the chaos Scottish Labour is in at the moment, not least their own leader throwing in the towel.

It'd be stupidly complacent of them to imagine a new leader will magically recover their old poll share, but there's nothing like shock polls of this kind to kick complacency up the arse.

I think they'll end up recovering by next May, out of self-preservation forcing them to improve their game if nothing else. Probably only to a moderate extent though.

 

[Quartz]

That's scary reading for Labour if the figures are maintained.

 

[William of Walworth]

I'd go out on a limb and say they won't be.

 

[butchersapron]

That's scary reading for Labour if the figures are maintained.

Something bad for labour would be bad for labour. The think-tank strikes again.

 

[The Boy]

7 months of Murphy giving it the old vote SNP get Tory shtick, then?

 

[William of Walworth]

Will it definitely be Murphy though? Poll figures like this might help Neil Findlay a bit? I speculate only ...

 

[danny la rouge]

Poll figures like this might help Neil Findlay a bit? I speculate only ...

Nobody knows who he is.

 

[butchersapron]

Nobody knows who he is.

Nobody expects...hang on...who?

 

[brogdale]

Nobody knows who he is.

Nonsense; everyone in Tannochbrae knows him.

 

[danny la rouge]

Nonsense; everyone in Tannochbrae knows him.

I used to play gigs there, and he was never in the audience.

 

[brogdale]

I used to play gigs there, and he was never in the audience.

Home visits?

 

[danny la rouge]

Home visits?

My gigs? No, in the Tannoch. And other local pubs.

(This is actually true).