Political polling

[Zapp Brannigan]

brogdale , butchersapron

2 separate articles (neither of which I can find on their websites) turned up in my FB feed this morning ("recommended articles", not mates) claiming that UKIP could win up to 100 seats (Telegraph) or 125 seats (ITV). Now that's patently bollocks, but to what extent? I've read it as they will go into the GE with Clacton & Rochester so could retain both (esp Clacton), Farage will probably take Thanet South, and a couple of others are possible - maybe Eastleigh off the Lib Dems?

I ask because I have to work with a UKIP knob and he's bound to have read this crap and wave it in my face when I see him tomorrow so i'd like to be sure of my stance. I'm under the assumption that these articles are fully paid up broadcasts by the tories, an only slightly more subtle version of waving a flag on the steps of Westminster bleating "vote UKIP, get Red Ed".

Any links to up-to-date marginal polling/analysis would be gratefully received - seen Ashcroft's most recent but someone more savvy than I would need to run the numbers beyond the headlines.

 

[William of Walworth]

Anthony at YG dwells on the poll fails in Heywood & Middleton...

The real problem with poll accuracy, when it comes to the actual event, is turnout.

That comment from Sas is spot on I reckon, and Anthony Wells remembers to mention the turnout factor as well. IMO there's been far too much made in the establishment media of Heywood and Middleton being so close, with a corresponding absence of any comment about how low turnout distorts swings and majorities.

Not claiming that Labour's campaign up there was inspiring or anything (far from) and they have to take some big responsibility for failing to do better. But the General Election simply won't be the same turnout wise.

One factor not often mentioned is one that actually I'm not too sure about -- will there not be local government elections on the same day as the GE next year? If so that will boost turnout (to an extent anyway) in some places.

Would that help or hinder UKIP though?

 

[killer b]

i think its more that general elections boost local election turnout, not the other way round.

 

[William of Walworth]

Support voting/turnout levels in both directions, surely? But I take your point.

 

[brogdale]

brogdale , butchersapron

2 separate articles (neither of which I can find on their websites) turned up in my FB feed this morning ("recommended articles", not mates) claiming that UKIP could win up to 100 seats (Telegraph) or 125 seats (ITV). Now that's patently bollocks, but to what extent? I've read it as they will go into the GE with Clacton & Rochester so could retain both (esp Clacton), Farage will probably take Thanet South, and a couple of others are possible - maybe Eastleigh off the Lib Dems?

I ask because I have to work with a UKIP knob and he's bound to have read this crap and wave it in my face when I see him tomorrow so i'd like to be sure of my stance. I'm under the assumption that these articles are fully paid up broadcasts by the tories, an only slightly more subtle version of waving a flag on the steps of Westminster bleating "vote UKIP, get Red Ed".

Any links to up-to-date marginal polling/analysis would be gratefully received - seen Ashcroft's most recent but someone more savvy than I would need to run the numbers beyond the headlines.

No, predictions of a three figure seat haul are patent bollux. Most conventional pollsters extrapolating the general mid to high-teen national polling will perdict UKIP getting a few/handful of seats. In fact, if you go onto Electoral Calculus you'll see just how high a poll share you need to go to produce more than a couple of seats. That said, pollsters with any credibility are firing off many caveats about this state of flux with 3.5/4 party politics etc.

If I were a betting man (am not) I'd put my money on UKIP gaining between 4 and 8 seats in 2015....but who really knows?

 

[Zapp Brannigan]

Thanks. Just ran the figures - Lab 33, Con 31, LD 12, UKIP 16 - and it gave UKIP 0, which I think is a bit fanciful. Not all bad though, the seats it gave had John Hemming, Lorely Burt, Esther McVey and Jacob Rees-Mogg all on the dole queue so more power to it.

 

[Dogsauce]

The media (and possibly UKIP) wet dream for some reason seems to be UKIP holding the balance of power, and presumably teaming up with the tories to govern. The thought of nige selling out for some kind of teaboy role (like clegg) and having no impact on policy is appealing, although everything else about a batshit right-wing coallition scenario isn't.

 

[Dogsauce]

Thanks. Just ran the figures - Lab 33, Con 31, LD 12, UKIP 16 - and it gave UKIP 0, which I think is a bit fanciful. Not all bad though, the seats it gave had John Hemming, Lorely Burt, Esther McVey and Jacob Rees-Mogg all on the dole queue so more power to it.

Pretty sure Rees-Mogg will get his cards, only scraped in last time round, and people will have more of an idea how weird he is now. Possible that UKIP won't stand against him to help out, but that might not be enough.

 

[brogdale]

Ipsos MORI's evidence of changing perceptions of the value of voting for the tiny UKIP party...

 

[brogdale]

...and Ipsos MORI become the third pollster this week to produce a record high number for UKIP...

Latest @IpsosMORI poll has Labour regaining the lead :-

Con 30 (-4) Lab 33 (nc) LD 8 (+1) UKIP 16 (+1) Greens 5 (-1)

 

[brogdale]

Thanks. Just ran the figures - Lab 33, Con 31, LD 12, UKIP 16 - and it gave UKIP 0, which I think is a bit fanciful. Not all bad though, the seats it gave had John Hemming, Lorely Burt, Esther McVey and Jacob Rees-Mogg all on the dole queue so more power to it.

Today's Guardian offers a map of the (probable) UKIP target seats...

"Farageland"

 

[butchersapron]

We're a farage band - we come from farage land
I don't wanna hear about what the rich are doing
I don't wanna go to where, where the rich are going
They think they're so clever, they think they're so right
But the truth is only known by Guttersnipes

(just popping in, go not time today - see Brogdale has answered the quesiton asked of us above - don't believe the hype!)

 

[Hocus Eye.]

I see on that map that they have depicted Greater London as an offshore island in the North Sea. What a fabulous and surreal concept. Not as surreal as the idea that UKIP could ever get sufficient seats to hold the balance of power.

What all polls don't and cannot take into account is that our "first past the post" system doesn't give the polls a chance to be valid predictors of the results of a real election.

 

[brogdale]

We're a farage band - we come from farage land
I don't wanna hear about what the rich are doing?
I don't wanna go to where, where the rich are going?
They think they're so clever, they think they're so right
But the truth is only known by Guttersnipes

That's what I was hoping for

Guttersnipes

 

[brogdale]

discuss

 

[Zapp Brannigan]

Today's Guardian offers a map of the (probable) UKIP target seats...

"Farageland"

UKIP - putting the Great back in Grimsby.

 

[brogdale]

Whole thing, really...but 3.38 onwards...nothing really changes, does it?

 

[Lo Siento.]

The media (and possibly UKIP) wet dream for some reason seems to be UKIP holding the balance of power, and presumably teaming up with the tories to govern. The thought of nige selling out for some kind of teaboy role (like clegg) and having no impact on policy is appealing, although everything else about a batshit right-wing coallition scenario isn't.

Is Farage as stupid as Clegg?

 

[killer b]

Is Farage as stupid as Clegg?

The die was cast as soon as Clegg entered a coalition with the tories. In the unlikely event of Farage holding the balance of power after the election, do you think he'd fare any better if he did the same?

 

[Lo Siento.]

Today's Guardian offers a map of the (probable) UKIP target seats...

"Farageland"

I'd be pretty surprised if they took Great Grimsby, a seat Labour have held since 1945.

 

[brogdale]

Is Farage as stupid as Clegg?

Neither of them are 'stupid', but they both demonstrate psychopathy . Which one suffers the greater psychopathy/narcissism I'd not like to say.

 

[Lo Siento.]

The die was cast as soon as Clegg entered a coalition with the tories. In the unlikely event of Farage holding the balance of power after the election, do you think he'd fare any better if he did the same?

Well, yeah. Even if Farage was daft enough to think that turning your protest vote party into a minority party in an old establishment coalition was the secret to long term success, the Lib Dem's experience must surely have set him straight.

 

[Lo Siento.]

Neither of them are 'stupid', but they both demonstrate psychopathy . Which one suffers the greater psychopathy/narcissism I'd not like to say.

Maybe not stupid, Clegg was certainly deluded at the last election.

 

[brogdale]

I'd be pretty surprised if they took Great Grimsby, a seat Labour have held since 1945.

Ayling is certainly not an attractive character, but she ran Mitchell close in 2010....and that was standing as a tory! I'd think based on recent evidence that she could well take Grimsby as a 'kipper.

 

[Lo Siento.]

Ayling is certainly not an attractive character, but she ran Mitchell close in 2010....and that was standing as a tory! I'd think based on recent evidence that she could well take Grimsby as a 'kipper.

With an incumbent Tory government and a national election campaign going on? Nah.

 

[brogdale]

With an incumbent Tory government and a national election campaign going on? Nah.

OTWT

 

[Lo Siento.]

OTWT

?

 

[brogdale]

?

Forecasting slang; only time will tell.

 

[Teaboy]

The thought of nige selling out for some kind of teaboy role (like clegg)

Steady now.

 

[treelover]

Milliband actually woke up today when responding robustly to Lord Freud's disgusting comments