Political polling

[brogdale]

My gigs? No, in the Tannoch. And other local pubs.

(This is actually true).

I meant the Dr. The reason he'd have missed your gigs...geddit?

 

[danny la rouge]

Of course. Maybe Janet poisoned him with salmon.

 

[brogdale]

Smithson reckons there's a new Rochester out tonight.

 

[brogdale]

...and here it is..

15% lead for Reckless

There’s a new voting intention poll by Survation for the Unite union of Rochester & Strood.

The latest shares (with change in brackets since firm’s last poll on 5 October for Mail on Sunday):

CON 33% (+2), LAB 16% (-9), LD 1% (-2), UKIP 48% (+8), GRE 2% (+2)

The trend is in line with last week’s ComRes Rochester poll which had the lead at 13%.

The poll founds that 25% of 2010 LAB voters said they were supporting Reckless which is the big driver behind the increase in the UKIP share.

News of the poll comes shortly after today’s disappointment for the purples in the S Yorkshire PCC by-election when LAB came home with more than 50% of the vote. UKIP had put a lot into the fight with hard-hitting ads linking LAB to the Rotherham sex abuse scandal.

This latest Survation poll has been commissioned by the UNITE union which is part of a growing campaign to the oppose the inclusion of NHS in the trade agreement between the US and EU. These were the findings.

 

[Quartz]

Lib Dems on 1%?!

 

[brogdale]

Matthew Goodwin @GoodwinMJ 1h
Cameron should never have personally aligned himself to the Rochester&Strood result. And too many Tories said to me "it will be like Newark"
View details ·

 

[brogdale]

Interesting analysis of swing voters from Smithson's mate Herdson. (inc. some nice graphs to play with)

....the benefit of the LD-Lab voters has dropped from 9.5% of Labour’s share to 6.7%: still substantial but no longer election winning by itself given that the Tories’ former Lib Dems are still putting 3% on the Blues’ total. In other words, the net effect of the Lib Dems’ collapsed vote share is a Con to Lab swing of less than 2%.

and

there are now three more to consider, who will play a significant part in determining how next year’s election goes: Purple Labourites, Soft Labour Nats and Rainbow Liberals.

 

[William of Walworth]

That's a good article ....

 

[brogdale]

Today's (Westminster) YG for ST...

The weekly YouGov/Sunday Times poll today has topline figures of:-

CON 31%, LAB 32%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 18%, GRN 6%,

continuing YouGov’s recent trend of showing a wafer thin Labour lead (tabs are here.)

meanwhile...

For the first time in YouGov’s polling Ed Miliband’s net ratings on if he is doing a good or bad job have sunk below Nick Clegg’s. 18% now think Ed Miliband is doing well as Labour leader, 73% badly – a net figure of minus 55. Nick Clegg’s figures are 18% well, 72% badly, a net figure of minus 54.

 

[treelover]

Watch the SNP join a tory-led coalition. Imagine the wailing, it'd be worse than the Lib Dem betrayal.

Maybe Cameron's decision to have a Scottish referendum wasn't so stupid after all, it's done them no harm.

Nicola Sturgeon may be a bit different than Salmon, the membership has also shifted to the Left recently, but real politik may come into it.

 

[brogdale]

Today's Ashcroft (Westminster) poll is remarkable...

The scale of the UKIP/GRN/SNP surges is breathtaking
That LAB falls to a record low of 29% is remarkable in itself but what is startling is that in the same poll CON is on just 30% making a big 2 aggregate of just 59%.

To put it into context. John Major’s Tories got more than 30% in the 1997 Blair landslide and LAB did better than 29% at GE10.

At the same time we are seeing three parties surge. UKIP, of course, and the SNP and the Greens.

What this does to GE2015 is hard to predict.

 

[brogdale]

Ashcroft's latest batch of marginals...

Well, he's finally found some that the tories can hold onto, and the C -> NuLab swing is down on the last set, (now 4.5%), but this really isn't great for the tories.

@LordAshcroft marginals finds UKIP at 20% in key CON-LAB battles:-

CON 33 LAB 36 LD 6 UKIP 20 GRN 4

How could it be with the 'kippers on 20%!

e2a : particularly good to see Cronx Centrale MP anus barfwell predicted as unemployed

 

[brogdale]

Cannock chase UKIP 'in constituency' share = 30% (+26)!

 

[brogdale]

Croydon Centrale UKIP (1st question) = 23%.
wtf

 

[brogdale]

Source

 

[brogdale]

This is the poll getting the headlines this morning...

The 4% LAB margin is the biggest in any poll since YouGov recorded a 7% lead nearly a month ago. The last Survation national poll in early October had LAB and CON level-pegging.

Survation has a reputation for producing the best shares for Farage’s party and is the only pollster that always includes it in its prompts.

1. 
   The poll is a good reminder that the party that’s most vulnerable to the UKIP surge is CON which has seen much more of its 2010 support seep away to it than either LAB or the LDs.

 

[butchersapron]

Sack EVERYONE!!

 

[brogdale]

Sack EVERYONE!!

...apart from UKIP75's fave leader...obs.

 

[butchersapron]

...apart from UKIP75's fave leader...obs.

He speaks for the man is the street so is a sacred cow - such is the respect we have for the man in the street.

 

[Dogsauce]

They had close to that in some of the marginal polling the other day (and up to 30 in one if I recall).

More panicked tory defections on the way as they seek for a way to cling on to their seats?

 

[brogdale]

They had close to that in some of the marginal polling the other day (and up to 30 in one if I recall).

More panicked tory defections on the way as they seek for a way to cling on to their seats?

Yes, some of the UKIP numbers from Ashcroft's Con/Lab "two-horse" marginals were remarkable.

 

[brogdale]

More flak for Miliband (apparently) but this lends some credibility to the last Survation numbers..



Vermin in the 20's...again.

 

[emanymton]

More flak for Miliband (apparently) but this lends some credibility to the last Survation numbers..



Vermin in the 20's...again.

Lib Dem support going up. Who are these people!

 

[butchersapron]

Lib Dem support going up. Who are these people!

It's not really going up, it's moving around the 6-9% range.

 

[brogdale]

Vermin taking double the damage from UKIP.

After a massive polling Saturday and the ongoing speculation about Ed Miliband let’s step back for a moment and look at the wider picture.

The chart above is from the latest batch of Lord Ashcroft’s CON-LAB marginals polling with an aggregate sample about three times as large as all the data that came out overnight. It highlights the big development that appears not to be going away – the rise of UKIP.

It shows where the current UKIP vote in the key marginals is coming from a picture that is broadly unchanged on recent months. For all the Farage spin his party is a much bigger threat to the Tories than LAB. The reason why the Tories are doing so poorly in the marginals is that they’ve lost a lot of votes to the purples.

In eleven days time, if the polling is right and there’s been no change, the Tories will lose Rochester to UKIP adding further fuel to the purple surge and possibly encouraging other Tory MPs to jump ship as well,

In all of this LAB has simply to hold its nerve which it doesn’t appear to be doing this weekend.
Click to expand...
[Also posted in Miliband thread.]

 

[brogdale]

Survation's new poll has topline figures of:-

CON 29%(+2), LAB 34%(+3), LDEM 6%(-3), UKIP 23%(-1),

Vermin still in the 20's.

 

[brogdale]

Not exactly polling, but the punters seem to be realising that a tory majority is not a sensible bet...

 

[brogdale]

Weak NuLab number from Ipsos-MORI monthly...lowest NL% from them since 2010...

 

[brogdale]

Sound analysis from Anthony (YG)...

As usual it’s the unusual poll that gets the attention, when it should be the trend. The fieldwork for the poll was conducted between Saturday and Monday when the media was full of stories about Labour having a leadership crisis, so naturally enough people have concluded that Labour’s leadership row has damaged them in the polls.

Except the MORI poll wasn’t the only poll conducted at the weekend. ICM also had a poll in the field at the same time, which showed Labour one point ahead (though down three on the previous month). Lord Ashcroft also had a poll conducted at the weekend, which showed a one point Conservative lead, but no change from the previous week. Populus had a poll conducted over the weekend too – it showed Labour holding on to a two point lead. YouGov had a poll conducted Sunday to Monday and another one since then, both showed a one point Labour lead, unchanged from last week.

The fact that this is the largest Conservative lead and the lowest Labour score for years is meaningful in its own way. It’s reflection of a general trend that has shown Labour drop from an average lead of around six points at the start of year, to an average lead of around about one point now. What the six polls we’ve had since the weekend don’t agree on is that last weekend’s row over Miliband’s leadership had any huge impact on this pre-existing trend.

 

[DownwardDog]

Weak NuLab number from Ipsos-MORI monthly...lowest NL% from them since 2010...

Is the abbreviated version of all this wonkery that in the last couple of years UKIP are +10%, Labour are -10% and Conservatives about the same?