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Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Maybe, but fieldwork ending 24th puts it pre-shit for most, I'd have thought?
Zapp Brannigan
Built like a steakhouse, handles like a bistro
The parliamentary vote was on the 20th. It wasn't the biggest immediate story of the year by any stretch of the imagination, but it's been gaining a bit of traction (partly because it's so easy to put it into simplistic terms of "Tories want to fill your rivers with shit") ever since so there might have been a slow drip feed into the responses to Savanta.
Dom Traynor
Tino Pai
SDP, Liberal Party, and Laurence Fox.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Not really just noise when it fits with the trending of poll of polls tracking showing a gradual decline in tory support from June:
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
As I said, gradual decline...from a mean high of 43% down to a mean of 39% as of Monday, but a few more like Savanta might obviously pull that mean a little lower. If the LP offered any discernible opposition the convergence might not be far off.
there was a gradual decline until mid september, but it's been flat since then - this could be a sign of a further decline, or it could be noise, like the other polls showing a drop in tory support in the last month and a half.
For those who despair that anyone aside from a handful of billionaires and their sycophants would ever vote Tory, it's always worth bearing in mind that even the biggest news stories rarely garner more than about 1-4% awareness from the general public, and that few really understand what the parties actually stand for.
There's been a bunch of stuff on Anthony Well's site discussing this lack of political awareness over the years if anyone's interested.
There's been a bunch of stuff on Anthony Well's site discussing this lack of political awareness over the years if anyone's interested.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
If the LP are remaining resolutely static on 36%ish...then someone's gotta pick up the shed vote elsewhere, I guess.
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
Posting this here on the basis that it is a report based on polling. Yes, it’s a report and polling of working class voters in America, but I think the results have a wider applicability for those interested.
Executive Summary
Our experimental study, the first of its kind, offers a new and powerful perspective on working-class political views. In collaboration with the public opinion firm YouGov, we designed a survey to test how working-class voters respond to head-to-head electoral matchups. By asking voters to choose directly between thousands of hypothetical candidates — rather than isolated policies or slogans — we can develop a richer, more realistic portrait of voter attitudes than conventional polls can provide. And by presenting this survey to a representative group of 2,000 working-class voters in five key swing states — a much larger sample of this demographic than appears in most polls — we are able to focus on these voters in much greater depth.
The key takeaways of our survey, listed briefly below and discussed in greater detail in the full report, can inform future progressive campaigns.
Key Takeaways
1. Working-class voters prefer progressive candidates who focus primarily on bread-and-butter economic issues, and who frame those issues in universal terms. This is especially true outside deep-blue parts of the country. Candidates who prioritized bread-and-butter issues (jobs, health care, the economy), and who presented them in plainspoken, universalist rhetoric, performed significantly better than those who had other priorities or used other language. This general pattern was even more dramatic in rural and small-town areas, where Democrats have struggled in recent years.
2. Populist, class-based progressive campaign messaging appeals to working-class voters at least as well as other varieties of Democratic messaging. Candidates who named elites as a major cause of America’s problems, invoked anger at the status quo, and celebrated the working class were well received by working-class voters —even when pitted against more “moderate” strains of Democratic rhetoric.
3. Progressives do not need to surrender questions of social justice to win working-class voters, but “woke,” activist-inspired rhetoric is a liability. Potentially Democratic working-class voters did not shy away from progres- sive candidates or candidates who strongly opposed racism. But candidates who framed that opposition in highly specialized, identity-focused language fared significantly worse than candidates who embraced either populist or mainstream language.
4. Working-class voters prefer working-class candidates.
A candidate’s race or gender does not appear to matter much to potentially Democratic working- class voters. But candidates with upper-class backgrounds performed significantly less well than other candidates. Class background matters.
5. Commonsense Solidarity
Working-class non-voters are not automatic progressives. We find little evidence that low-propensity voters fail to vote because they don’t see suffi- ciently progressive views reflected in the political platforms of mainstream Democratic candidates.
Democratic partisanship does not hurt progressive candidates. Working- class voters prefer progressive candidates running as Democrats to candidates who stress their independence from the party.
6. Blue-collar workers are especially sensitive to candidate messaging — and respond even more acutely to the differences between populist and “woke” language. Primarily manual blue-collar workers, in comparison with primarily white-collar workers, were even more drawn to candidates who stressed bread-and-butter issues, and who avoided activist rhetoric
Full report here:
Executive Summary
Our experimental study, the first of its kind, offers a new and powerful perspective on working-class political views. In collaboration with the public opinion firm YouGov, we designed a survey to test how working-class voters respond to head-to-head electoral matchups. By asking voters to choose directly between thousands of hypothetical candidates — rather than isolated policies or slogans — we can develop a richer, more realistic portrait of voter attitudes than conventional polls can provide. And by presenting this survey to a representative group of 2,000 working-class voters in five key swing states — a much larger sample of this demographic than appears in most polls — we are able to focus on these voters in much greater depth.
The key takeaways of our survey, listed briefly below and discussed in greater detail in the full report, can inform future progressive campaigns.
Key Takeaways
1. Working-class voters prefer progressive candidates who focus primarily on bread-and-butter economic issues, and who frame those issues in universal terms. This is especially true outside deep-blue parts of the country. Candidates who prioritized bread-and-butter issues (jobs, health care, the economy), and who presented them in plainspoken, universalist rhetoric, performed significantly better than those who had other priorities or used other language. This general pattern was even more dramatic in rural and small-town areas, where Democrats have struggled in recent years.
2. Populist, class-based progressive campaign messaging appeals to working-class voters at least as well as other varieties of Democratic messaging. Candidates who named elites as a major cause of America’s problems, invoked anger at the status quo, and celebrated the working class were well received by working-class voters —even when pitted against more “moderate” strains of Democratic rhetoric.
3. Progressives do not need to surrender questions of social justice to win working-class voters, but “woke,” activist-inspired rhetoric is a liability. Potentially Democratic working-class voters did not shy away from progres- sive candidates or candidates who strongly opposed racism. But candidates who framed that opposition in highly specialized, identity-focused language fared significantly worse than candidates who embraced either populist or mainstream language.
4. Working-class voters prefer working-class candidates.
A candidate’s race or gender does not appear to matter much to potentially Democratic working- class voters. But candidates with upper-class backgrounds performed significantly less well than other candidates. Class background matters.
5. Commonsense Solidarity
Working-class non-voters are not automatic progressives. We find little evidence that low-propensity voters fail to vote because they don’t see suffi- ciently progressive views reflected in the political platforms of mainstream Democratic candidates.
Democratic partisanship does not hurt progressive candidates. Working- class voters prefer progressive candidates running as Democrats to candidates who stress their independence from the party.
6. Blue-collar workers are especially sensitive to candidate messaging — and respond even more acutely to the differences between populist and “woke” language. Primarily manual blue-collar workers, in comparison with primarily white-collar workers, were even more drawn to candidates who stressed bread-and-butter issues, and who avoided activist rhetoric
Full report here:
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Makes sense so, i guess, would be ignored by Starmer.
Most striking thing about that one is the Green vote.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
True, but not really supported by other polls.
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
labour's flatlining polling should be really troubling them. Under starmer labour cant seem to get above the low/mid 30s (similar to brown and milliband - but even worse) even mid term with a government that is in a mess.
All they've managed to do post corbyn is lose their left wing/younger/green inclined voters whilst winning back none of the older ones who deserted cos of corbyn/brexit.
Im sure with someone with a bit of charisma like Raynor fronting some properly radical (as opposed to managerial tinkering) policies they would would be pulling ahead.
Unless something changes, johnson will win the next election by default. I dont think the tories will boot him until the polls look properly grim and they start losing badly in byelections and the locals.
All they've managed to do post corbyn is lose their left wing/younger/green inclined voters whilst winning back none of the older ones who deserted cos of corbyn/brexit.
Im sure with someone with a bit of charisma like Raynor fronting some properly radical (as opposed to managerial tinkering) policies they would would be pulling ahead.
Unless something changes, johnson will win the next election by default. I dont think the tories will boot him until the polls look properly grim and they start losing badly in byelections and the locals.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Obvious point really, but Labour's problem is they don't stand for anything so are not in a position to connect the disparate aspects of tory failure/corruption/killing tens of thousands. Labour are there not even a default position for anyone leaving the tories. They aren't representing a particular group nor making an ideological pitch to anyone in particular. They've no way of generating emotions amongst the electorate or even a sense that there's a 'project' going on. Most depressingly, I can't think of any scenario between now and the next election for any of that to change.
Within the narrow confines of electoral politics, Burnham is probably the least worst option, but even he doesn't come into play till after the 2024 defeat (perhaps parachuted into a 'safe' seat in the northwest and the sitting MP being sent to the lords). He's 'least worst' pretty much on the grounds of being northern and sounding slightly more sincere than kieth, but that's as good as it gets.
Within the narrow confines of electoral politics, Burnham is probably the least worst option, but even he doesn't come into play till after the 2024 defeat (perhaps parachuted into a 'safe' seat in the northwest and the sitting MP being sent to the lords). He's 'least worst' pretty much on the grounds of being northern and sounding slightly more sincere than kieth, but that's as good as it gets.
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
LOL - Ive made a habit of gammon baiting on the spectator fb page. They are in meltdown cos johnsons is too woke, too green, not racist enough - "he doing what green wifey tells him!" "its not about sleaze - tis cos they've turned in to green labour!"
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