Political polling

[brogdale]

Where are libdems getting their persistently high polling from? I've not met a single person in the real world who has said they'd vote libdem, have for labour, tory, brexit party, and plaid, but not a single libdem. Is shy libdem the new shy tory?

Well, as I live in Brakey-boy's (near 60% Leave!) constituency, I have...obviously.
Around these parts they tend to be avid voters when it comes to GEs. Many of them love to say that they have 'Labour values at heart' but clearly "have to vote for Tom" to keep the tories out.
Yeah, right.

 

[killer b]

No labour bounce from the conference then

They'll be happy with no dip tbf.

 

[brogdale]

They'll be happy with no dip tbf.

Could easily be a dip from Manchester when folk are exposed to the full horror.

 

[belboid]

Hardly surprising, considering the shambles it was.

the conference where all but two motions were carried overwhelmingly? Probly the most united conference in years? Where even the two 'controversial' debates were held in good humour and respect? Wasn't shambolic at all.

 

[Dogsauce]

Conference got drowned out by the ongoing Brexit shambles, maybe the tories fucked it up on purpose to have this effect, though doubt they’re that clever.

 

[killer b]

There's some interesting number crunching on this thread - click through for details (let's ignore for a second the fact that his numbers show the Lib Dems getting more seats than Labour - his points about distribution of voters is worth considering I think)

 

[brogdale]

Britain Elects updated their poll-tracker today (as of 01/10/19):



That's:
Con : 31.9
Lab : 24.0
LD : 20.5
BP : 12.9
Gr : 3.5
UKIP: 0.5
ChUK: 0.2

 

[Mr Moose]

Probably an outlier, but depressing.

Opinium poll for the Observer,

Tories 38
Labour 23
Libs 15
BP 12
Green 4


Poll shows Conservative party 15 points ahead of Labour

 

[brogdale]

Useful (annotated) poll tracker graph from Goodwin:

 

[WouldBe]

Latest AOL poll has
Cons 49%
LD 22%
BP 14%
Lab 10%

 

[butchersapron]

Latest AOL poll has
Cons 49%
LD 22%
BP 14%
Lab 10%

What's an AOL poll?

 

[cupid_stunt]

Latest AOL poll has
Cons 49%
LD 22%
BP 14%
Lab 10%

Where have you got this nonsense from?

They are clearly not a proper polling company, but can you provide a link, for a laugh?

 

[Supine]

People who still have AOL email accounts

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

Latest AOL poll has
Cons 49%
LD 22%
BP 14%
Lab 10%

America Online? Blimey! Do you still connect to the internet by dial-up, by any chance?

 

[Proper Tidy]

Yeah well I seen a facebook poll which had labour on 78% and the greens on 9% so everything is sound

 

[greenfield]

I seriously don't understand why the polling is so bad

 

[agricola]

I seriously don't understand why the polling is so bad

Because they have a bad argument that they are communicating badly.

 

[brogdale]

Because they have a bad argument that they are communicating badly.

Or, looked at the other way round, those leading the polls have an easily understood position communicated relentlessly through predominantly compliant media. It’s not called populism for nothing.

 

[brogdale]

Ipsos MORI's "Who is on the people's side?" polling:



Fairly predictable, I suppose...but the respective BP/Tory numbers would suggest that current Westminster polling includes a chunk of 'lent' votes to the Tories contingent on Brexit delivery.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

lol

80% don't think The Queen is on the side of the Establishment.

I wonder how they asked the question. Was it either/or? Interesting underlying assumptions - ie that the 'establishment', whatever it is, is by its nature against 'the people', whatever that is.

 

[brogdale]

lol

80% don't think The Queen is on the side of the Establishment.

I wonder how they asked the question. Was it either/or? Interesting underlying assumptions - ie that the 'establishment', whatever it is, is by its nature against 'the people', whatever that is.

Not sure of methodology, but the fact that nearly 60% did not, apparently, offer a definite view on whether or not the monarch is on the side of the people might be a little worrying for 'palace authorities'.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Not sure of methodology, but the fact that nearly 60% did not, apparently, offer a definite view on whether or not the monarch is on the side of the people might be a little worrying for 'palace authorities'.

tbh the mere fact that she is listed among the options in a political opinion poll ought to be worrying for them.

She actually comes out of it pretty well considering she is the head of the establishment.

 

[Proper Tidy]

Ipsos MORI's "Who is on the people's side?" polling:

View attachment 186212

Fairly predictable, I suppose...but the respective BP/Tory numbers would suggest that current Westminster polling includes a chunk of 'lent' votes to the Tories contingent on Brexit delivery.

The red lines for Johnson and the Tories don't bode well for his we the people strategy

 

[brogdale]

The red lines for Johnson and the Tories don't bode well for his we the people strategy

Right party of capital finding the limits of 'populism'?

 

[Proper Tidy]

Right party of capital finding the limits of 'populism'?

Innit. Interesting that labour has had more success despite being on (or perceived to be on) wrong side of underlying brexit issue (more think remainers on side of establishment than no dealers)

 

[Wilf]

The whole Tory vote/support for Johnson via 'lets get brexit done' has the potential to crumble and even in the poll above you can see potential lines of attack. Just can't see Labour putting themselves in a place where they can do it or escaping from their own brexit morass.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Not sure of methodology, but the fact that nearly 60% did not, apparently, offer a definite view on whether or not the monarch is on the side of the people might be a little worrying for 'palace authorities'.

It appears that something close to half the respondents probably thought the terms and assumptions of the questions were wrong, though.

'I can't answer that as it's a meaningless question' will get lumped in with the 'don't knows'.

 

[brogdale]

It appears that something close to half the respondents probably thought the terms and assumptions of the questions were wrong, though.

'I can't answer that as it's a meaningless question' will get lumped in with the 'don't knows'.

Oh, yes.

 

[WouldBe]

Where have you got this nonsense from?

They are clearly not a proper polling company, but can you provide a link, for a laugh?

No they aren't a 'proper polling company' they are an ISP, but it is a political poll so I posted it for the lol's.

If it comes up again I'll post the link but no guarantees as the poll occasionally appears on pages about political news.

 

[killer b]

in that case, this latest U75 poll should be on here, as it's been conducted with the same amount of rigour

Con - 1.5
Lab - 59.1
LD - 1.5
Green - 6.6
Spunking Cock - 24.8

Fieldwork 5-17 September