Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
cupid_stunt
Where's the bloody sun?
What?
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
31/10/19
chilango
Hypothetical Wanker
I think things will shift significantly in the coming weeks.
In what direction I don't know.
But we're in a weird limbo right now.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
Labour may well be fucked, the numbers are not good, and they aren't any kind of blip - but they were also not good, and settled, prior to the 2017 GE, and what happened on the night bore no relationship whatsoever to what anyone would have predicted 6 weeks beforehand.
I have no idea how Labour - or anyone else - will do on the night. Politics in the last 4 years is so unpredictable that anyone betting the house on a particular result 8 weeks in the future, and the other side of a GE campaign, is guaranteed only one result - to lose.
TheHoodedClaw
acknowledging ur soup leg
Add Opinium to the pile
WouldBe
Dislicksick
Not sure how they work that out. Most labour voters are working class so according to that analysis should have voted leave not remain.
Even odder when most labour constituencies voted leave.
PursuedByBears
Go stick your head in a pig
Labour really have fucked it haven't they? 
Time to retire magic grandpa.
Time to retire magic grandpa.
Dom Traynor
Tino Pai
Not sure how they work that out. Most labour voters are working class so according to that analysis should have voted leave not remain.
Even odder when most labour constituencies voted leave.
I'm sure you understand polling better than Yougov with all your AOL polling experience
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
Not sure how they work that out. Most labour voters are working class so according to that analysis should have voted leave not remain.
Even odder when most labour constituencies voted leave.
You can take a seat with about 40% of the vote, so not that difficult to be an MP in an area where you don’t represent a majority opinion. Plus people don’t vote on single issues, care about things other than Brexit so don’t mind a party’s stance being different than their own.
It’s only become a defining issue lately because that’s what some parties want, for the tories it’s all they have to offer since they’ve fucked up everything else and little else they offer is popular, for the lib dems everything else they stand for is so wishy-washy business-as-usual that this is the only policy they can stand out on. Labour may not have been keen to take a strong position on this, but they haven’t been able to set the agenda and raise other issues when Brexit has been the only topic in town.
WouldBe
Dislicksick
Didn't say I did. It just doesn't make sense. Also how many people did you gov poll to find out their age, class and political leanings to then extrapolate this onto the referendum polling data?
fakeplasticgirl
Keirleader
Time for Starmer to take over.
Dom Traynor
Tino Pai
Yougov make all of that information available.
WouldBe
Dislicksick
So they do, I've just found it. ~5500 people surveyed so about 8 people per constituency
and out of those that voted in the referendum then that's 0.01%There's going to be a hell of an error trying to scale that up to get an accurate view of who voted which way.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
What do they do to manage that error?So they do, I've just found it. ~5500 people surveyed so about 8 people per constituency
There's going to be a hell of an error trying to scale that up to get an accurate view of who voted which way.
WouldBe
Dislicksick
No idea. They would need to use a crystal ball with a sample size that small.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
byeNo idea. They would need to use a crystal ball with a sample size that small.
WouldBe
Dislicksick
What ever they use is worthless as their own breakdown contradicts what they claim. All the groups that are more likely to vote labour, they claim voted leave and then claim that most labour supporters voted remain. What a joke.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
I apologise, i misread your question as someone playing a game. If you're interested as to how they come to their fixed results that you pretend to be like that, here.What ever they use is worthless as their own breakdown contradicts what they claim. All the groups that are more likely to vote labour, they claim voted leave and then claim that most labour supporters voted remain. What a joke.
WouldBe
Dislicksick
And that states that it is possible to be wildly out. As someone has posted above political polls are very rarely accurate these days so why should this be any different?
If in that poll 5 out of 8 people in a constituency said they voted "monster raving loony party" does that mean that the MRLP have actually got an MP? Or is it more likely to show that either the sample size was too small or as some people do they have lied as to how they voted.
If you think Labour are onto a winner by backing remain then you are delusional. Round here NE Derbyshire which was previously labour for 94 years fell to the conservatives at the last GE. Like wise Mansfield which was previously held by labour for 98 years also fell to the conservatives. This is not due to a large influx of tories into the area it's because die hard labour voters are sick and tired of being ignored by the labour party when they voted leave. It's not just here it's in lots of other places as well. On the news the other week they were talking to the public in Wolverhampton N about brexit where the labout majority has dropped from ~22000 down to 220 of was it 22 Votes.
If labour are so intouch with the people and their voters who 'mostly voted remain' then why is the labour vote falling as shown in polls above (if you can beleive them)?
It really comes to something when most die hard labour voting ex-miners round here are prepared to vote conservative because they are not being listened to. Most would vote brexit party but don't want to split the vote so will be voting conservative at the next GE if things don't change.
So if you're not careful it will be virtually bye-bye labour party at the next election
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
I linked to that to answer your question as to their methodologies etc. I'm not really interested in the rest of that post.
Supine
Newt Member
BBC must have seen this thread
Poll tracker: How popular are Westminster parties?
It includes the questions asked by each poll company and a discussion on weighting of answers.
Poll tracker: How popular are Westminster parties?
It includes the questions asked by each poll company and a discussion on weighting of answers.
WouldBe
Dislicksick
Remind us how well labour did in the EU elections.
Since the labour vote went down then if as you assert that most labour voters voted remain then they must have lost faith in the labour party and voted Lib dems instead.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
I'm not sure that you have the right person and, if you have, then you've seriously misread anything I've ever said on the issue of the EU and the referendum.
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
which is what every single commentator said did happen.Remind us how well labour did in the EU elections.
Since the labour vote went down then if as you assert that most labour voters voted remain then they must have lost faith in the labour party and voted Lib dems instead.
Proper Tidy
Arsed
Next lot of polls should be interesting I reckon
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
If I were a betting man, I'd wager not that interesting tbh. Reckon those minded to back the psychoblustercunt to give them their Brexit will be fairly unmoved by the Supremes
Proper Tidy
Arsed
Yeah didn't mean will be sea change. I just want to see what effect this has on voting intentions (including on libdem vote as labour seems only remain game in town)
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