Political polling

[brogdale]

Comres put out this bit of analysis alongside that poll Reflections on the Westminster psychodrama « ComRes

This bit really stood out to me
8. Orange Is The New Red?
Jeremy Corbyn’s near monopoly on the youth vote is evaporating as newly enfranchised voters turn to the Lib Dems, almost certainly over Brexit. In comparison to a ComRes/Daily Express poll conducted in September 2018, the Labour vote share among 18-24s has decreased from 62% to 38%, while the corresponding Lib Dem vote share has increased from 9% to 25%.

#Youthquake

 

[Dogsauce]

Where has the rest gone? I guess greens will be pulling in a lot due to the popularity of ER protests.

May not just be down to switchers, as people will be moving in and out of that grouping.

Also can’t really say ‘don’t be fooled again’ about the Lib Dems to 18-24 year olds given none of them would have voted in 2010. Needs pointing out though.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

Where has the rest gone? I guess greens will be pulling in a lot due to the popularity of ER protests.

May not just be down to switchers, as people will be moving in and out of that grouping.

Also can’t really say ‘don’t be fooled again’ about the Lib Dems to 18-24 year olds given none of them would have voted in 2010. Needs pointing out though.

I dunno, we all knew Thatcher was a cunt in primary school. Maggie Thatcher did a fart and blew up the USA

 

[WouldBe]

Probably not the best poll but on AOL out of 16,500 votes only 11% would vote labour in a GE. That would put them 4th.

 

[butchersapron]

100% of a tiny bit.

 

[butchersapron]

The youth total vote, the seats it matter?

 

[mauvais]

Probably not the best poll but on AOL out of 16,500 votes only 11% would vote labour in a GE. That would put them 4th.

Who in God's green fuck still uses AOL? Surely only people who died in 1997 and whose direct debit somehow survives them.

 

[Supine]

Who in God's green fuck still uses AOL? Surely only people who died in 1997 and whose direct debit somehow survives them.

IT illiterates

 

[WouldBe]

Who in God's green fuck still uses AOL? Surely only people who died in 1997 and whose direct debit somehow survives them.

I've got an e-mail account there and can't be arsed to change it.

 

[belboid]

Who in God's green fuck still uses AOL? Surely only people who died in 1997 and whose direct debit somehow survives them.

Mike Pence, apparently
Pence's real crime is that he still uses an AOL email account

 

[Dom Traynor]

Who in God's green fuck still uses AOL? Surely only people who died in 1997 and whose direct debit somehow survives them.

My dad is a 78 year old IT illiterate and still moved himself to Gmail a couple of years ago

 

[Supine]

 

[gentlegreen]

that's us fucked then ...

 

[danny la rouge]

that's us fucked then ...

Whatever numbers were there, that’s still the answer.

 

[brogdale]

that's us fucked then ...

Making such judgements from polling now overlooks the fact that any GE will take place at least 4 weeks after 31/10/19.

The political environment could look very different by then.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Anyone who reads a poll now, and uses it to construct a narrative about what will happen in the white heat of the coming election is very brave.

 

[Proper Tidy]

Anyone who reads a poll now, and uses it to construct a narrative about what will happen in the white heat of the coming election is very brave.

Although I will make a prediction that the libdems will 100% definitely not get a higher vote share than labour and will have circa 200 seats less

 

[brogdale]

Not wishing to go too OT, but if the GE were to fall after the UK's exit from the EU...being a party with one policy (to revoke A50) is going to look a pretty threadbare offer tbh.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Although I will make a prediction that the libdems will 100% definitely not get a higher vote share than labour and will have circa 200 seats less

They will definitely have less seats. On the former point it depends how the Revoke A50 policy plays long. My view is badly. How badly is debatable. But they are starting from a point where they deliberately excluded 52% of the electorate

 

[cupid_stunt]

Just for fun, based on those figures, electoral calculus predicts...

 

[Wilf]

Not wishing to go too OT, but if the GE were to fall after the UK's exit from the EU...being a party with one policy (to revoke A50) is going to look a pretty threadbare offer tbh.

Although I will make a prediction that the libdems will 100% definitely not get a higher vote share than labour and will have circa 200 seats less

I'm somebody who did make that prediction (Libs beating Labour on votes, but not seats). Hedging slightly, I think I said something like 'could well beat Labour in vote share' or something, but I'll own it. But yeah, timing is everything and it's also about the Horlicks that Labour come out with at their conference in terms of their brexit stance. Some version of renegotiations, 2nd referendum and Corbyn not letting on what he thinks doesn't look like a formula for attracting more Labour voters. But regardless of whether they beat the Libs, Labour won't be losing purely on the back of their brexit stance, it'll be the longer term failure of project Corbyn/momentum.

 

[killer b]

Ipsos have a 3-point LD bump too fwiw (it is the end of their conference week so not necessarily meaning much, but their revoke policy is likely to be very popular among the remain fundies)

 

[killer b]

 

[ferrelhadley]

Ipsos have a 3-point LD bump too fwiw (it is the end of their conference week so not necessarily meaning much, but their revoke policy is likely to be very popular among the remain fundies)

65% of Labour voters voted to remain.
71% of people below 24 in 2016
The under 30s are an absolutely critical demographic for Labour in any up coming election.
How Britain voted at the EU referendum | YouGov

Green voters, voted by 80/20 to remain.

I read your posts with amusement. Its just fantasies masquerading as analysis. But you are too thick to ever really understand this.

 

[killer b]

what... what fantasies do you think I'm indulging?

 

[Proper Tidy]

Always find the 'x number of labour voters voted to remain' argument quite odd/funny. Labour didn't win. Ok they need to retain voters but they also need to get some new ones. Perhaps old new ones that used to vote labour but stopped. Anyway it's a shit argument regardless.

 

[Wilf]

65% of Labour voters voted to remain.
71% of people below 24 in 2016
The under 30s are an absolutely critical demographic for Labour in any up coming election.
How Britain voted at the EU referendum | YouGov

Green voters, voted by 80/20 to remain.

I read your posts with amusement. Its just fantasies masquerading as analysis. But you are too thick to ever really understand this.

As Proper Tidy has just said, Labour are going to get anywhere they need to find a way through and round brexit, to start increasing their vote. My line has always that Labour should have built a politics and organisation that worked with/represented/organised * the whole working class. That would have been the way into and beyond brexit. That they haven't done this is Labour's real problem - failing to settle on a 'line' on brexit is just a symptom of that (a rather big one as it happens, but still a symptom).

Oh, by the way, silly rants about people being thick are a bit shit (whoever they are from or aimed at). And, needless to say, Killer b certainly ain't thick.

* Choose yer term, depending on your politics

 

[killer b]

He can call me thick if he likes, but I dunno where he's read posts by me that suggest I don't think people who voted remain and under 30s are a crucial part of Labour's support. Certainly not here.

 

[Supine]

Posted mainly because I like the design. Results not eye opening.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Labour is fucked.