depends on too many variables for there to be a fixed number - in 2005 Blair won a majority with 35%, in 2017 May lost her majority with 42%
Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
There's no answer to that as it depends massively on where the votes are. For example the Brexit party could conceivably get 10-15% nationwide and still finish up with zero seats.
ferrelhadley
There is no love between us anymore.
Most of the variance is accounted by the smaller parties, Greens and Brexit. Comparing companies that offer Lab\Con\LD\Green on their first question with others that prompt for Lab\Con\LD\Brexit will show a large difference between the Lab\Con vote as the two different small parties pull from the two larger ones.The polls are all over the fucking place...
No one has a fucking clue.
There is a bit of variance from the Lib Dems but on the whole the Conservatives are pulling about 32% give or take two points and Labour are 27% give or take two points. Small parties with small budgets and poor data will shed votes in a first past the post national election.
The Lib Dems who have well structured local parties will likely hold onto much of the vote.
The questions that people look at this far our from an election is leadership ratings and trust on the economy. Those are the kind of worries that will see people start falling behind one of the big parties on.
As for seats, the SNP are going to hoover up almost everything in Scotland. 50-55. About 13 of them are Tory. That hobbles both parties efforts to get a majority.
Working out how the Brexit and Lib Dems vote will break is really going to be a regional thing. The Brexit vote will likely hold up in the hard core Brexit seats, you sea side and small midlands northern towns, Lib Dems likely to do better in suburbs and student towns.
YouGov have said the poll being tweeted about is nothing to do with them. National polling is usually done with about 1000 respondents. 50 000 sounds.... odd. Unless someone has thrown very serious money at 50 seats with 1000 polls.
Also there is usually a methodological difference between phone and internet polling. They have differing demographic reaches so modelling has to back fill for the missing in phone polling, which back in the day tended to show lower UKIP numbers, so I would assume its similar for the Brexit Party.
tl;dnr, polling tells you what it can. In this case: hung parliament is the most likely outcome.
it's a fairly typical number for an MRP model
Proper Tidy
Arsed
LibDems having a party machine doesn't mean it's vote will hold up in a GE, as every GE shows. It's vote will be diminished for same reason every other party except labour or tory will - because people want their vote to count. Obviously.
Smangus
comatose at a desk
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
Yes. One of the most maddening practises of swivel-eyed Corbynista's and BP loons alike is this constant posting of a council by-election result showing a big swing and claiming that this proves 'x'. All it really proves is that the poster is a fucking idiot.
Proper Tidy
Arsed
LibDems also do this, seen somebody post the vince cable hat gif once for a parish council seat
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
since 2015
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
I doubt any such thing was ever commissioned. Pollsters like YG have plenty of scope for cross-break merging of all sorts of responses from their multi-variate polling.
Looks as though most self-reported tory voters were either too old to harbour sexual fantasies for sensible enough not to peddle them to a pollster.
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
You'd have thought so, but you're wrong - https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/sexual-fantasies-tory-labour-supporters-happy-bedroom/
The the article is wrong too, I remember a survey from the nineties as well. I think Labour were horniest then too
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
I saw that poll yesterday, but haven't yet seen a source for it.
If it is genuine then the fact that Labour supporters fantasise about kissing another human is perhaps the most disturbing finding.
Liberals, unsurprisingly, are infected with repressed middle class fantasy. As for the Tories even their fantasies involve status and capital.
If it is genuine then the fact that Labour supporters fantasise about kissing another human is perhaps the most disturbing finding.
Liberals, unsurprisingly, are infected with repressed middle class fantasy. As for the Tories even their fantasies involve status and capital.
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Perhaps I should have said "commissioned as a discrete piece of polling"?
I still reckon YG have just asked their registered respondents about sex and then cross-referenced to any previously reported political preferences. I suppose if folk are willing to offer all this up for the pollsters then it's fair game.
Supine
Newt Member
You not liking it doesn't make me an idiot. And you wouldn't say that to my face so calm yourself down on the keyboard.
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
You not liking it doesn't make me an idiot. And you wouldn't say that to my face so calm yourself down on the keyboard.
Eh?
It isn't that we don't like it, it's that it's meaningless outside of the context of that particular council ward. We'd post the same if someone had posted some results showing a Labour local by election victory too (and have done).
You not liking it doesn't make me an idiot. And you wouldn't say that to my face so calm yourself down on the keyboard.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Yes, uncalled for.
You not liking it doesn't make me an idiot. And you wouldn't say that to my face so calm yourself down on the keyboard.
But it's not really case of liking the local election result or not; it's more a question of what polling value single (low turnout) council by-elections can possibly have.
Smokeandsteam
Working Class First
Sorry, what's uncalled for? My comment? If so my comment specifically mentioned Labour and BP supporters posting a council by election result and then claiming that it contains a wider significance. People who do that are, and there is no getting around it, fucking stupid. It's clearly politically ignorant but it doesn't even work agitationally.
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
I think it s, it was her basis for a proper academic bok and everything! There was a new version out yesterday, which is probably why this infographic gained prominence again, and it's got an introduction by Isabel Hardman, so it must be all true and rigorously tested!
flypanam
Sausage to fortune
Spanking them with a marrow. A sexy marrow.
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