Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
WouldBe
Dislicksick
That won't help labour at the next GE.
Libdems are def remain. Labour has just voted at conference to wait and see. Any one would think they don't want to be in power.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Yes, there's enough volatility in the polls already, at least in terms of the tory lead, for the next set of polls to look like more of the same. However I can't see Labour getting a lead any time soon. They might have seen a bounce around the new policies on prescriptions, social care and the rest, though brexit drowns everything else out at the moment.
Mathew Goodwin is posting something like this, crazy?
"A very rough estimation of how seats fall based on current polls Conservative 323 Lab 222 Lib Dem 32 Green 2 Brexit P 1 SNP 48 Plaid 4 & what happens if half of #Brexit Party jump to Johnson: Con 365 Lab 191 Lib Dem 29 Green 2 Brexit 0 SNP 41 Plaid 4"
he's using the polling average across all polling companies, not a single poll from Comres
Who knows? If you make a load of broad assumptions it's a projection you could get to. But broad assumptions are really all we've got to go on atm, so it's as viable as anything else, and it's within the range of results indicated by current polling.
Broad assumptions have led to Goodwin eating his own book in the past, mind.
Broad assumptions have led to Goodwin eating his own book in the past, mind.
kabbes
First intersubjective, then internalised
Amazing. Total impasse. And I assume the other 13% are don’t knows?this poll from Opinium of 2017 Labour voters is interesting.
Also this from Stephen Bush in the staggers
Is Boris Johnson's electoral strategy working? Here's why it's so hard to tell
Is Boris Johnson's electoral strategy working? Here's why it's so hard to tell
cupid_stunt
Where's the bloody sun?
This one came out overnight.
Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election - Wikipedia
Proper Tidy
Arsed
Where are libdems getting their persistently high polling from? I've not met a single person in the real world who has said they'd vote libdem, have for labour, tory, brexit party, and plaid, but not a single libdem. Is shy libdem the new shy tory?
chilango
Hypothetical Wanker
I know a few too.
I'm not convinced that they'll all go through with it though.
Some I think will just not get around to it, others will bottle it and vote Tory. Whilst a few might hold their nose and vote Labour.
We'll see.
But I really don't think that the Lib Dem vote is at all solid.
I'm not convinced that they'll all go through with it though.
Some I think will just not get around to it, others will bottle it and vote Tory. Whilst a few might hold their nose and vote Labour.
We'll see.
But I really don't think that the Lib Dem vote is at all solid.
Proper Tidy
Arsed
Be interesting to see who the main beneficiary would be if libdem vote collapses, I'd assume tory normally but if labour seen as more or less remain and only runner. Or what difference it makes if most of that 20% is concentrated in a couple of dozen constituencies
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
Tories only really got back in against expectations in 2015 because of the complete collapse of the Lib Dem vote. I suspect they might take back some of the seats lost then, sort of outer London, West Country and places like that. There are some lib-labour marginals (Leeds NW is one I know of) but they’re more likely to do damage by knocking back the labour vote in Tory/labour marginals where people don’t have the sense to vote tactically, or get fooled by crooked bar charts in ‘only we can win here’ leaflets.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Probably a few well off people in the shires too, especially in the south west.
cupid_stunt
Where's the bloody sun?
Hardly surprising, considering the shambles it was.
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