Political polling

[Carvaged]

First poll putting Labour ahead was just published. Never heard of Qriously, or if they're part of the BPC, but anyway, here's their result:

Lab: 41.3%
Con: 38.5%
LD: 6%
UKIP: 3%
SNP: 3.8%

(4 Jun – 7 Jun; sample: 2213; weighted by “gender, age, region and income”)

Final election polls give Jeremy Corbyn the lead over Theresa May for the first time

 

[danny la rouge]

Survation finally out:

 

[danny la rouge]

Survation tables: http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Survation-GE2017-Final-Poll-2d7l9l8.pdf

 

[JimW]

First poll putting Labour ahead was just published. Never heard of Qriously, or if they're part of the BPC, but anyway, here's their result:

Lab: 41.3%
Con: 38.5%
LD: 6%
UKIP: 3%
SNP: 3.8%

(4 Jun – 7 Jun; sample: 2213; weighted by “gender, age, region and income”)

Final election polls give Jeremy Corbyn the lead over Theresa May for the first time

That would be the only one with the Tories below 40% wouldn't it? Seems far too good to be true sadly.

 

[danny la rouge]

That would be the only one with the Tories below 40% wouldn't it? Seems far too good to be true sadly.

Survation has one point in it.

 

[killer b]

I'm switching allegiance from yougov to survation anyway.

 

[Fez909]

 

[JimW]

I'm switching allegiance from yougov to survation anyway.

Prognosticators of distinction, I always said.

 

[JimW]

Survation has one point in it.

I was thinking the dip below 40 for the Cons was significant too in seats but might have that round my neck

 

[Calamity1971]

Who's yougov when they're at home

 

[Vintage Paw]

With the polls varying so wildly, it seems prudent to wear our sensible hats and expect the result to fall somewhere in the middle, while our pessimist hats expect the largest 100 seat tory majority. That way we can start commiseration drinking tonight and be entirely out of it so we don't give a shit either way by the time the exit polls come at 10pm tomorrow.

 

[Calamity1971]

With the polls varying so wildly, it seems prudent to wear our sensible hats and expect the result to fall somewhere in the middle, while our pessimist hats expect the largest 100 seat tory majority. That way we can start commiseration drinking tonight and be entirely out of it so we don't give a shit either way by the time the exit polls come at 10pm tomorrow.

I'm celebrating and commiserating in equal measures already. Both sides covered

 

[danny la rouge]

Who's yougov when they're at home

Really?

A polling company.

 

[Carvaged]

Qriously got the Brexit referendum right, and have had a few successes in South Korea, the Netherlands and France.

 

[JimW]

So do I take Friday off for an all-nighter at the local or not? This lot aren't helping.

 

[Calamity1971]

Taking the piss. I'm being loyal to best poll outcome silly. Like a fairweather footie fan?

 

[The Pale King]

Fuck these tory cunts I'm done with electoral politics lets just leave not one alive eh

See youse canvassing tomorrow!

 

[killer b]

With the polls varying so wildly, it seems prudent to wear our sensible hats and expect the result to fall somewhere in the middle, while our pessimist hats expect the largest 100 seat tory majority. That way we can start commiseration drinking tonight and be entirely out of it so we don't give a shit either way by the time the exit polls come at 10pm tomorrow.

Unfortunately there's a Labour leadership challenge planned to kick off around then. No rest for the wicked.

 

[Vintage Paw]

Unfortunately there's a Labour leadership challenge planned to kick off around then. No rest for the wicked.

McTernan was asked about what Corbynism means for the Labour Party now and he seemed to have taken a different tack on it. In that he's aware it's changed the game and can't be ignored. I didn't read the thing - it was Alex Nunns and Stephen Bush chatting on twitter about an interview Bush did with him. I meant to dig it out and take a look but then the rest of twitter happened and I forgot, lost in a flurry of angry retweets and snide comments.

 

[danny la rouge]

Taking the piss. I'm being loyal to best poll outcome silly. Like a fairweather footie fan?

Ah, I don't understand football. Or irony, it seems.

 

[Dogsauce]

With the polls varying so wildly, it seems prudent to wear our sensible hats and expect the result to fall somewhere in the middle, while our pessimist hats expect the largest 100 seat tory majority. That way we can start commiseration drinking tonight and be entirely out of it so we don't give a shit either way by the time the exit polls come at 10pm tomorrow.

For some reason my unstudied gut feeling has been they'll get a majority of about 90 seats. I think I'm telling myself this so that if they *only* get sixty or seventy it won't feel so bad. When it comes in at 131 I'll be tearfully hugging the nearest hospital.

 

[danny la rouge]

McTernan was asked about what Corbynism means for the Labour Party now and he seemed to have taken a different tack on it.

I saw a video clip. But he can't even be trusted to give his opinion.

I'll see if I can find the clip.

 

[Vintage Paw]

For some reason my unstudied gut feeling has been they'll get a majority of about 90 seats. I think I'm telling myself this so that if they *only* get sixty or seventy it won't feel so bad. When it comes in at 131 I'll be tearfully hugging the nearest hospital.

My local hospital (Royal Stoke) half burnt down today so I can't even do that.

 

[Vintage Paw]

My local hospital (Royal Stoke) half burnt down today so I can't even do that.

Mind you, I remember last time there was a Labour govt going to the Royal Stoke to give Hewitt a fucking ear-full.

Fun story: we organised a march, and this is Stoke, home of zero political engagement. But we got the RCN and Unite and various other sorts all working together and we got this march off the ground. We told the police that we'd be marching from the hospital into Hanley (a good couple of miles down a couple of main roads) on the Saturday and they didn't think it'd be much of anything so they sent one copper to take a look once we'd got to the city centre.

There were a good couple of thousand of us and we shut down the city. No fucker could get into Hanley Good times.

 

[danny la rouge]

McTernan was asked about what Corbynism means for the Labour Party now and he seemed to have taken a different tack on it. In that he's aware it's changed the game and can't be ignored. I didn't read the thing - it was Alex Nunns and Stephen Bush chatting on twitter about an interview Bush did with him. I meant to dig it out and take a look but then the rest of twitter happened and I forgot, lost in a flurry of angry retweets and snide comments.

Shorter than I'd remembered.

 

[danny la rouge]

Peston saying Blairism dead:




We'll see.

 

[Wilf]

Should probably sort it out like this rather than all that voting shite:

 

[killer b]

McTernan was asked about what Corbynism means for the Labour Party now and he seemed to have taken a different tack on it. In that he's aware it's changed the game and can't be ignored. I didn't read the thing - it was Alex Nunns and Stephen Bush chatting on twitter about an interview Bush did with him. I meant to dig it out and take a look but then the rest of twitter happened and I forgot, lost in a flurry of angry retweets and snide comments.

I'm not sure how relevant mcternan is anymore. A gobby talking head the journalists call when they need a gobby talking head, sure. Dunno if he has much sway tho

 

[Calamity1971]

Ah, I don't understand football. Or irony, it seems.

Maybe I should of used this instead of this for in ya face irony.

 

[danny la rouge]

Qriously got the Brexit referendum right, and have had a few successes in South Korea, the Netherlands and France.

Nate Silver thought they were serious enough to be worth including in his round-up: