Political polling

[redsquirrel]

SurveyMonkey for Sun
CON 42%(-2),
LAB 38%(nc),
LDEM 6%(nc),
UKIP 4%(nc).

Like the low LD vote there

 

[redsquirrel]

So now the final polls are out who's going to start the prediction thread?

 

[killer b]

Yougov isn't out yet...

 

[Kaka Tim]

Kantar‘s final poll has topline figures of CON 43%(nc), LAB 38%(+5), LDEM 7%(-4), UKIP 4%(nc)

so we have some polls showing quite big movements for labour, whilst others are showing no change. fuck knows what's going on.

 

[brogdale]

I predict that some of the polls will prove to be closer to the actual result than others.

 

[redsquirrel]

so we have some polls showing quite big movements for labour, whilst others are showing no change. fuck knows what's going on.

Don't know about the Kantar one but the TNS poll with Labour up 5 is from 1-7 June, so showing a similar increase in the Lab vote to others just with a bit of a "time lag" because they don't poll as often as YouGov/Survation etc

 

[danny la rouge]

We got all these?

Looks like a big Tory majority, doesn't it?

 

[J Ed]

 

[danny la rouge]

 

[Fez909]

Has a party ever won* without being ahead in the polls even once?

*I'm defining won here as either the largest party in terms of seats or the highest vote share nationwide.

 

[Kaka Tim]

that looks like the survation one from a few days ago. and i dont think the you gov one is out yet

 

[J Ed]

that looks like the survation one from a few days ago. and i dont think the you gov one is out yet

You are right, thanks.

 

[J Ed]

As an aside, the girl in the banner of Survation twitter account sat in a call centre holding her hair in an anxious way is seriously disturbing. What sort of message are they trying to send with that?

 

[danny la rouge]

 

[J Ed]

fuck

 

[Plumdaff]

Jesus have those front pages actually worked.

 

[danny la rouge]

fuck

YouGov back in the middle of the field, then. Looks like a hung parliament is a forlorn hope.

 

[Kaka Tim]

fuck fuck fuck.

 

[danny la rouge]

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

God I hate libdems.

 

[danny la rouge]

Final call poll: Tories lead by seven points and set to increase majority

YouGov | Final call poll: Tories lead by seven points and set to increase majority

 

[chilango]

View attachment 108738

"Only" 302 seats though. All is not lost, yet.

 

[Carvaged]

Looks like the Tories will get in with an increased majority after all. Bummer.

 

[danny la rouge]

"Only" 302 seats though. All is not lost, yet.

"YouGov’s final call for the 2017 election is for a seven point Conservative lead, leading to an increased Conservative majority in the Commons."

So. Maybe an early night tomorrow after all.

 

[Plumdaff]

It's margin of error stuff, eh

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

I knew this would happen. I got my hopes up and the universe is punishing me for it. We all need to start thinking really pessimistically so as to balance out the Karma. Come on everyone, just think about how terrible the result will be. We can do this. We can do it!

 

[Kaka Tim]

"YouGov’s final call for the 2017 election is for a seven point Conservative lead, leading to an increased Conservative majority in the Commons."

So. Maybe an early night tomorrow after all.

whats on bbc2 tomorrow night ....?

 

[chilango]

"YouGov’s final call for the 2017 election is for a seven point Conservative lead, leading to an increased Conservative majority in the Commons."

So. Maybe an early night tomorrow after all.

Yet their seat by seat predictions aren't for a increased majority .

 

[lazythursday]

The seat by seat predictions use a different methodology and got updated about lunchtime today.

 

[Carvaged]

YouGov did change their methodology for their final poll though, which would have suppressed the Labour VI. I'd have to see the tables to see how much.