Summary of different predictions from the Guardian feed (I'm not sticking it in quotes as you'll have that silly thing were it won't all fit)
==========================================================
15 Election result predictions
As
this interview with Prof John Curtice, the BBC’s elections expert and the mastermind behind the exit poll, reveals, by this time tomorrow afternoon - well before the polls have closed - Curtice will probably know the election result.
Unfortunately he won’t be telling me.
But, as the next best thing, here is a round-up of 15 of the most compelling election forecasts around. They range from a hung parliament to a Conservative majority of 122. At the start of the campaign, before the Tory social care U-turn and the
Jeremy Corbyn surge, the figure at the top would have been even higher.
On the assumption that reporters are generally best sticking to reporting, and that when they get into the prediction business, they often get it wrong, I won’t be offering my own. So you will just have to stick with these. But reader predictions are, of course, more than welcome BTL.
Hung parliament -
the YouGov model
This is the most recent forecast (from yesterday) from the YouGov model, a forecasting model devised using multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP). This involves taking polling data and, using data about the demographic composition of constituencies, and how different demographics vote, developing a seat-by-seat forecast. The
Conservatives (304) would have the most seats, but even with Northern Ireland unionists (around 10) they could be outvoted by a coalition of Labour (266), the SNP (46), the Lib Dems (12) and the Greens (1).
YouGov model. Photograph: YouGov
Conservative majority of 22 -
electionpolling.co.uk forecast
This is the most recent forecast on electionpolling.co.uk, based on what would happen on the basis of the swing implied by the most recent polls.
Conservative majority of 28 -
New Statesman
This is the majority implied by the seat forecasts in the New Statesman’s model, which takes the latest polling figures and produces a forecast using the RegVar forecasting model.
Conservative majority of around 40 - Peter Kellner’s prediction
This is the prediction that Peter Kellner, the leading pollster and former YouGov president, set out
in an Evening Standard column yesterday.
Conservative majority of 48 -
Local election projection
This is the forecast that Sky New elections expert Prof Michael Thrasher produced straight after the local elections, judging what would happen in a general election based on voting in the locals. It does not take into account developments since the campaign started.
Conservative majority of 52 - Projection based on
Opinium’s final poll
Opinium’s final poll suggests the Tories are on 43%, Labour 36%, the Lib Dems 8% and Ukip 5%, and
Electoral Calculus says this would give the Tories a majority of 52.
Conservative majority of 58 - Projection based on “poll of polls”
in Guardian poll tracker
The Guardian’s poll tracker currently has the Tories on 44%, Labour on 36%, the Lib Dems on 8%, Ukip on 4% and the Greens on 2%,
and Electoral Calculus says this would give the Tories a majority of 58.
Conservative majority of 64 -
the Ashcroft Model
This is the central forecast of the Ashcroft Model, a forecasting model devised by Lord Ashcroft also using MRP. But his forecast is different from YouGov’s.
The Conservatives remain on course to win a majority in the general election, according to new figures from the Ashcroft Model. Our “combined probabilistic model”, which calculates the sum of each party’s win chances in all the seats in which it is standing, estimates 357 Tory seats, or a potential majority of 64 (up four from the previous update published last Friday). However, this central estimate, based on an update survey conducted over the weekend, combines the data from three different turnout scenarios: including all those who currently say they will vote on Thursday (giving a Conservative majority of 70); including all those who say they voted in the EU referendum (a Conservative majority of 48); and assuming turnout matches that of the 2015 election (a Conservative majority of 78).
Ashcroft model. Photograph: Lord Ashcroft/Ashcroft model forecast
Conservative majority of 71 -
Elections Etc combined forecast
Elections Etc is an elections website run by Stephen Fisher, an Oxford academic who is part of the team working on the BBC/Sky/ITV exit poll. The combined forecast is a forecast that produces an average of all forecasts available based on a system: using polling, and forecasting models; betting trends; and wisdom-of-the-crowd exercises. Here are their most recent figures, from five days ago.
Combined forecast for election. Photograph: Elections Etc
Conservative majority of 72 -
Electoral Calculus forecast
This is the current forecast on the Electoral Calculus website, which is calculated using an average of recent polls.
Conservative majority of 75 to 99 - Betfair’s central forecast
According to figures from the bookmakers Betfair today, the Tories winning a majority of 75 to 99 is their most popular option with punters. Their odds on this are 5/1.
Conservative majority of 84 - Projection based
on latest Guardian/ICM poll
The latest Guardian/ICM poll has the Tories on 45%, Labour 34%, the Lib Dems 8%, Ukip 5% and the Greens 3%, which
Electoral Calculus says would give the Tories a majority of 84. A final Guardian/ICM poll is due out tomorrow.
Conservative majority of 100 -
the electionforecast.co.uk model
This is a model run by Chris Hanretty at the University of East Anglia, using polling data but adjusting for trends in voting behaviour. Its most recent forecast has the Tories getting 375 seats.
Conservative majority of 105 - Nigel Marriott’s prediction
This is the prediction from the statistician Nigel Marriott,
who explains his methodology here.
Conservative majority of 122 - Iain Dale’s prediction
This is the prediction from Iain Dale, the broadcaster, publisher and onetime chief of staff to David Davis.
On his blog he has made predictions for every seat in the country.
