lazythursday
Averagely-Known Member
Yes, sounds as though they've decided to change their minds about how 'don't knows' will split between parties. Fishy. Don't want to be different to everyone else.
Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
They allocated don't knows this time, apparently.
(Not seen the tables myself: repeating a report).
mauvais
on reddit or something
We can't do it! We're hopeless!
ItWillNeverWork
Messy Crimbobs, fellow humans.
Most likely we'll see the sort of result predicted before the election campaign. Twenty point Tory lead anyone? Probably.
Cid
Proper break this time
Bah. Not really after all... I think it was there in the back of all our minds.
Though there's still that bloody temporarily indestructible egg of hope. Why? Just let me sulk in peace egg of hope, you know your shell will be broken.
Plumdaff
joy in people
Most likely we'll see the sort of result predicted before the election campaign. Twenty point Tory lead anyone? Probably.
Naah, we have to get the vote out because worse case scenario is fucking dreamland from a month ago, and has at least got policies and ideas on the table that would have been unthinkable not long ago. C'mon, we've got more fight in us than that, no?
It would be interesting (but probably tough to get your head around) to see exactly how they allocated the don't knows ....
ItWillNeverWork
Messy Crimbobs, fellow humans.
Yous lot dont understand the laws of karma. Pessimism now == optimism later. Never expect anything good, ever! Things are going to be shit. REALLY REALLY shit!
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
It would be interesting (but probably tough to get your head around) to see exactly how they allocated the don't knows ....
ItWillNeverWork
Messy Crimbobs, fellow humans.
It's like a seesaw. If we can get a last minute surge of miserableness in now, it might just tip the balance in our favour tomorrow.
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
William of Walworth
From the YouGov blog:
"we have reallocated those respondents who say don’t know, but who also say they are very likely to vote (voters who my colleague Adam McDonnell described earlier in the campaign as “true undecided”). We assume uncertain voters who say they “don’t know” at this stage won’t actually vote, but those who say they are 8+/10 certain to vote we have reallocated back to the party they voted for in 2015"
YouGov | Final call poll: Tories lead by seven points and set to increase majority
From the YouGov blog:
"we have reallocated those respondents who say don’t know, but who also say they are very likely to vote (voters who my colleague Adam McDonnell described earlier in the campaign as “true undecided”). We assume uncertain voters who say they “don’t know” at this stage won’t actually vote, but those who say they are 8+/10 certain to vote we have reallocated back to the party they voted for in 2015"
YouGov | Final call poll: Tories lead by seven points and set to increase majority
However the polls go, it's always worth remembering that the vast majority of Britons do what the papers/media (ie a few billionaires) tell them to. It's almost always been that way, except for a few exceptional occasions (eg 1945). So don't expect them to suddenly wake up and realise they're turkeys voting for Christmas - they just don't see it.
Thanks for that -- it explains the 'how' they re-allocate, but what about 'why' have they decided to make that change? Are not their assumptions in doing so open to question? I haven't the foggiest ...
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Ha, Ha LD 1% fuck I really hope Survation are right
Raheem
Well-Known Member
I think the orthodox thing is to split the DKs according to the general split, so that they don't have any skewing effect. Apparently, that's what almost always happens in actual elections.
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
ICM do it the same way. YouGov are basically herding. Is there evidence of pollsters herding? – Number Cruncher Politics
ETA Carvaged beat me to it while I was googling the link.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
IIRC YouGov traditionally don't generally split the DKs but they have done for other pre-election polls
The reasoning being that they generally aren't trying to sample "How people would vote in a GE" but "what party do you most support", but as a pre-election poll will be read as the former anyway they do split the DKs for those.
The reasoning being that they generally aren't trying to sample "How people would vote in a GE" but "what party do you most support", but as a pre-election poll will be read as the former anyway they do split the DKs for those.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Fake
Mr.Bishie
pickled egg
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
Yup.
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
Drum roll!redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
I can but dream
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
98!!!
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Look at the huge uncertainty bars on the Lab and Con figs though
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
Indeed, but the pink between the bars is as big as the bars.
SovietArmy
Well-Known Member
We don't believed Trump win, we surprised UK voted out European Union as well Scottish referendum. I hope polls are wrong.
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