Political polling

[danny la rouge]

I need to go to bed. This is like a shit version of Christmas Eve. Rudolf's been hit by a snow plough and Santa's off the wagon.

 

[Vintage Paw]

My prediction: the tories are going to win with 40+ majority. A sickly-feeling place in my gut thinks it'll be an even bigger majority than that. The anxiety disorder part of me needs to find a coping strategy because this is all too much. Am awaiting Sturgeon to announce plans to draw up another indy ref and I think I'm going to officially change my name to Brenda.

 

[JimW]

Scottish Westminster voting intention:

SNP: 39%
LAB: 29%
CON: 26%
LDEM: 6%

(via @Survation / telephone)

 

[JimW]

Just to keep danny up

 

[danny la rouge]

Scottish Westminster voting intention:

SNP: 39%
LAB: 29%
CON: 26%
LDEM: 6%

(via @Survation / telephone)

What?

Glad to see the Tories falling back into 3rd, but what will that mean for seats? I'm hoping it fucks up East Renfrewshire for Labour and Tories. (YouGov modelling had it as "lean Tory")

 

[discokermit]

a little bit on the qriously poll, Final election polls give Jeremy Corbyn the lead over Theresa May for the first time

 

[Fez909]

 

[Vintage Paw]

a little bit on the qriously poll, Final election polls give Jeremy Corbyn the lead over Theresa May for the first time

So they're not weighting on some of the stuff other more traditional polling companies do, like past voting record and self-reported likelihood to vote.

 

[Raheem]

So they're not weighting on some of the stuff other more traditional polling companies do, like past voting record and self-reported likelihood to vote.

Which means you need to add at least 8 points on to the Tories to make it comparable to other polls. Or leave it as it is to make it accurate.

 

[Supine]

Who's yougov when they're at home

That bloke Dave, from down the pub.

 

[Teaboy]

Well, this thread has been fun but now back to the crushing reality. When does the inquiry into how did they all get it wrong start?

 

[DotCommunist]

them getting it wrong would be a labour win.

 

[William of Walworth]

I know everyone's been correctly suspicious of polls showing Labour too close, but that BMG one posted by Fez909 above, seems a fair bit out of line with most others bar ICM (and even the most recent one of ICM's showed a slightly narrowing Tory lead).

I'm sure the Tories will win, but by ten %age points plus? Several very recent polls think it'll be closer.

Then again, BMG might be picking up a very late swing back to the Tories that others haven't detected

 

[killer b]

in summary: who the fuck knows?

 

[kabbes]

It's actual polling day now -- these last minute polls have little interest for me. I'll know the actual answer within 24 hours. I'll have a good idea within 12 hours

 

[chilango]

Final internal email forwarded to me from the bowels of the City somewhere contains undisguised glee at Goodwin's prediction of a majority close to 90.

Still hanging onto

• local election results
• leadership ratings
• UKIP votes winning the Tories seats in places like Stoke and Wakefield.

 

[bemused]

Final internal email forwarded to me from the bowels of the City somewhere contains undisguised glee at Goodwin's prediction of a majority close to 90.

Still hanging onto

• local election results
• leadership ratings
• UKIP votes winning the Tories seats in places like Stoke and Wakefield.

I think the local election results are pretty compelling.

 

[chilango]

I think the local election results are pretty compelling.

Not here they're not.

Maybe in some places, maybe in most places. But most people I know are voting differently in the GE than they did in the last locals. Which were in 2016. Not everywhere has just had them either.

 

[bemused]

Not here they're not.

Maybe in some places, maybe in most places. But most people I know are voting differently in the GE than they did in the last locals. Which were in 2016. Not everywhere has just had them either.

Goodwins thesis is that no party that hasn't had a double digit lead in the preceeding local election has gone on to overturn an encumbent in the last 40 years:

That does seem pretty compelling, I'm sure we'll all know in the next 5 hours or so.

 

[free spirit]

Goodwins thesis is that no party that hasn't had a double digit lead in the preceeding local election has gone on to overturn an encumbent in the last 40 years:

That does seem pretty compelling, I'm sure we'll all know in the next 5 hours or so.

But the preceding local elections this time barely had any urban areas in it at all as it was a fallow year for most urban areas because it was a county council election year.

 

[bemused]

But the preceding local elections this time barely had any urban areas in it at all as it was a fallow year for most urban areas because it was a county council election year.

The 2014 election was London and the other metropolitian areas. Labour got ~31%, Tories ~30%.

 

[kabbes]

Goodwins thesis is that no party that hasn't had a double digit lead in the preceeding local election has gone on to overturn an encumbent in the last 40 years:

That does seem pretty compelling, I'm sure we'll all know in the next 5 hours or so.

Don't need it to overturn, as such. A hung parliament will feel like victory.

Anyway, 8 data points is so laughably few that I laugh at it.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Goodwins thesis is that no party that hasn't had a double digit lead in the preceeding local election has gone on to overturn an encumbent in the last 40 years:

That does seem pretty compelling, I'm sure we'll all know in the next 5 hours or so.

And before those 40 years? Why choose 40 years? Beware of the cherry-picked stat.

Also, 40 years may sound like a long time, but that represents just two changes in government. The stats are based on fuck-all, as kabbes says above.

 

[Vintage Paw]

Final internal email forwarded to me from the bowels of the City somewhere contains undisguised glee at Goodwin's prediction of a majority close to 90.

Still hanging onto

• local election results
• leadership ratings
• UKIP votes winning the Tories seats in places like Stoke and Wakefield.

My own polling station anecdote from here in Stoke Central is the man at the desk said turnout has been at least as busy as for the EU Ref. We were, of course, one of, if not the, lowest turnout in the 2015 GE.

I'll add, they've (the local party) been relatively confident of holding Central. Not so the other two Stoke seats.

 

[danny la rouge]

My own polling station anecdote from here in Stoke Central is the man at the desk said turnout has been at least as busy as for the EU Ref. We were, of course, one of, if not the, lowest turnout in the 2015 GE.

I'll add, they've (the local party) been relatively confident of holding Central. Not so the other two Stoke seats.

All that is Solid dude says this:

 

[J Ed]

All that is Solid dude says this:

View attachment 108824

Is this good or bad for Labour?

 

[butchersapron]

Good for bleurgh devices

 

[butchersapron]

Democracy.

 

[Vintage Paw]

All that is Solid dude says this:

View attachment 108824

Yes. We had the same conversation with the same guy. Because we went there together.

 

[danny la rouge]

Is this good or bad for Labour?

No idea. We'll see, I suppose.