ItWillNeverWork
Messy Crimbobs, fellow humans.
Conservative numbers are cropped from that image.
Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
Conservative numbers are cropped from that image.
JimW
支那暗杀团
Just trying to sort that
tim
EXPLODED TIM! (Help me!!!)
Yes, the Tories could win some seats
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
If the 12 Lib Dems went with the Tories there'd be Hell Up. That'd be fun!
Raheem
Well-Known Member
I think it's more likely they wouldn't, because of last time and because of Brexit. But they don't strike me as especially hard to bribe, either.
tim
EXPLODED TIM! (Help me!!!)
No, because there are also the parties in the north of Ireland, which Yougov hasn't bothered counting. The DUP and presumably any other Unionists will support the Tories in return for favours.
not-bono-ever
meh
I would not underesTIMate the ability of the libdem lice to heed a call from mayhem
tim
EXPLODED TIM! (Help me!!!)
I reckon that they'd support the Tories if they were offered a second referendum as part of the deal.
Cid
Proper break this time
I have to admit I'd get at least a grain of pleasure round the Christmas table as I pointed out to my anti-Corbyn relatives how exactly they ended up voting for hard brexit. Not much, but a little compensation.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Very different politically from 2010. Then they were riding a 25 % share of the vote and more seats than they'd had for decades. Plus Labour were the tired govt who'd lost their majority. On those yougov numbers, Labour + SNP is bigger than the tories, and libdem brokering on its own wouldn't give the tories a majority. tbh if those exact numbers happen, I can't see anyone being able to form a government. It'll be another election this year for sure.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
The Unionist parties would support the Tories. SNP, PC, Green and SDLP would support Labour. So, it would be down to the Lib Dems to pick one or other option, or force a re-run. YouGov also seem to be projecting one independent MP, but I've no idea where that is going to happen.
Mind you, I think another election this year is odds on in any event.
Yeah, that would actually be the most hilarious outcome possible, if "strong and stable" May, after calling an election to (supposedly) show how united we are going into Brexit negotiations, instead plunges the country into a constitutional crisis.
Independent Claire Wright in East Devon. No straightforward explanation tbh, she must have worked incredibly hard to build up the support she has.
Claire Wright
'One of the biggest electoral upsets in UK history' could be on in East Devon
emanymton
A cat politely sat on the flaming gardener.
I got as far as 'I own a building'.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Lib dems actually lost seats in 2010.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
That's because there's two. Speaker and deputy.
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
Well, I was just speculating on what Raheem said. But despite the differences from 2010, actually I wouldn't bet on the Lib Dems not going in with the Tories should YouGov-like figures be the result (again, I doubt this. But again, who the fuck knows?)
Here's the scenario: May, being the sitting PM and by convention getting the first crack at forming a government, calls up the Lib Dems. "We need a stable government of National Unity because Brexit. That simply can't be the Troika, don't you agree?" Lib Dems come out saying "We'll ensure a soft Brexit deal is put before the public. Lib Dem peer, Lord Ashdown of Norton-sub-Optimal, will be on the Brexit negotiating team. We want an advisory referendum to ratify the deal or not". Tories neuter the referendum thing somehow, but leave some sort of format in place. Coalition goes through.
Who'd put that past them? (Especially since Labour + SNP are unlikely to form a formal coalition. That arrangement would more likely be a minority government plus support. That suits both parties better).
*This has been a fun speculation based on one set of figures which may not even be close.
Doesn't work like that does it? Primarolo was deputy but Bristol South remained a Labour seat
*also, there's two deputies
This is the exact scenario I envisage, should the lib dems hold the balance of power.
mauvais
on reddit or something
I don't see how the Lib Dems are going to hold the balance of anything unless they've quietly put up a big barrel of gunpowder as the candidate in one of their few remaining safe seats, the Rt Hon Quentin Saltpeter-Hogshead MP. Even then I'm sure it could be negotiated down with, say, a discounted Saga holiday.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
gawkrodger
Well-Known Member
On the lib dems willingness to go into coalition with the tories the thing that has struck me is their justification for the original coalition is still there. Locally (labour are a distant third here) they have been going heavy on the "only the lib dems can stop the heartless tories" approach. I'm now even getting targeted you tube ads about living in a marginal where Labour can't win.
The thing is the problem with this approach is it gives them the wriggle room to say the best way to stop the "heartless" tory cuts is to stop them from within, be part of the government and influence decisions rather than shouting from the sidelines. I remain convinced that they would join a coalition with the tories again given the chance, I've no doubt about it.
The thing is the problem with this approach is it gives them the wriggle room to say the best way to stop the "heartless" tory cuts is to stop them from within, be part of the government and influence decisions rather than shouting from the sidelines. I remain convinced that they would join a coalition with the tories again given the chance, I've no doubt about it.
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
initially farron said they would, then ruled it out. But yes, they would. Not they are a relevance this time round
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