Political polling

[killer b]

And theyll all model their weighting on whoever gets closest. Until next time it goes horribly wrong (2022?)

 

[Pickman's model]

And theyll all model their weighting on whoever gets closest. Until next time it goes horribly wrong (2022?)

there's every chance it could go horribly wrong on thursday

 

[Wilf]

there's a big one on thursday

Is it that weird one, where there's no methodology and they just... count them? Wtf?

 

[Wilf]

"And we can exclusively announce that the exit poll shows the pollsters have been making it up for the last 5 weeks and are useless nob ends"

 

[J Ed]

there's every chance it could go horribly wrong on thursday

For them, I hope...

 

[Pickman's model]

For them, I hope...

yeh well we'll find out how shit it is on friday

 

[bi0boy]

Is it that weird one, where there's no methodology and they just... count them? Wtf?

That one on Thursday could be way off the mark if people don't vote for the parties they claim to support.

 

[Wilf]

That one on Thursday could be way off the mark if people don't vote for the parties they claim to support.

I just hope spunking cock doesn't get squeezed.

 

[Old Spark]

Well they can only all be wrong if Labour wins a majority.

Yougov,Survation -Hung Parliament

Opinium,Mori -As you were ish

ICM,ORB,Kantar,Comres-Increased Tory majority,maybe big

 

[brixtonblade]

"And we can exclusively announce that the exit poll shows the pollsters have been making it up for the last 5 weeks and are useless nob ends"

Stupid question... How come the exit poll is more accurate? Is it a lot bigger? Does it model for turnout better?

 

[Fez909]

Stupid question... How come the exit poll is more accurate? Is it a lot bigger? Does it model for turnout better?

"It's who did you vote for?" vs "Who might you vote for?"

No chance to change your mind after the fact.

You might lie, however. But it seems people don't...?

 

[killer b]

It's just a lot bigger, and there's no undecideds.

 

[where to]

And they're only asking people who *have* just voted, as opposed to people speculating over how likely they are to vote, which seems the hardest thing for pollsters to cut through these days.

 

[danny la rouge]

"It's who did you vote for?" vs "Who might you vote for?"

No chance to change your mind after the fact.

You might lie, however. But it seems people don't...?

They did in 1992, famously. The exit polls vastly underestimated the Tory share.

 

[phillm]

There are new kids in town , with apps and beards and newspeak .....who are going to change the world

Newspeak House

 

[danny la rouge]

There are new kids in town , with apps and beards and newspeak .....who are going to change the world

Newspeak House

This made me want to stop reading:

"I am trying to set up a hackspace for politics".

Why should I read further?

 

[phillm]

This made me want to stop reading:

"I am trying to set up a hackspace for politics".

Why should I read further?

The younger folk , with their apps and iphones and snapchat and the like would know what it all means - I beleive we are on v 4.0 of the web. Folk over on U75 are still on web 2.0 (or old skool in old money).

 

[Pickman's model]

This made me want to stop reading:

"I am trying to set up a hackspace for politics".

Why should I read further?

If you have swallowed poison in error it may help you vomit it out your system

 

[Pickman's model]

I just hope spunking cock doesn't get squeezed.

 

[redsquirrel]

Interesting blog from John Curtice suggesting Scottish Labour is benefitting from the Corbyn effect. His title is well-chosen: it's an overflow effect, not something locally generated.

There's a number of reasons we know this is overspill, but chiefly: 1. there really is no Labour campaign in Scotland, as the party activist base is completely demoralised. 2. The party in Scotland is anti Corbyn anyway. (Their sole MP has been vocally anti Corbyn, and has, for example, left previous anti Corbyn remarks up on his social media even through the election campaign). 3. As Curtice notes, it is Corbyn's stance and policies that people cite, rather than Dugdale's or the Scottish party's performance.

The Labour Surge Washes Over Hadrian's Wall - What Scotland Thinks

It's perhaps worth noting that the old guard of stale dinosaurs were wiped out at the last GE and none is standing this time. (Though Blair MacDougall, the Better Togethet chief, is standing. But his recognition rating is probably nowhere near what he thinks it is). Perhaps the voters think the clean out was enough to rehabilitate the party.

It'd be interesting to see similar stuff from Wales, where Welsh Labour is claiming that it's increase in the polls is all about its campaign and noting to do with that Jeremy Corbyn bloke (and I've got a bridge to sell)

 

[William of Walworth]

Carwyn James is allowed to exist here, Jeremy Corbyn isn't (officially ).

 

[Cid]

It's all down to Jonathan Bishop in Wales, let's be honest.

 

[Wilf]

Just seen there's to be an IPSOS Mori exit poll released at 10 p.m. Worst of all worlds really, you tune in at 10 to find it's going to be bad and then stay up another 4 hours to get it confirmed.

 

[mx wcfc]

Just seen there's to be an IPSOS Mori exit poll released at 10 p.m. Worst of all worlds really, you tune in at 10 to find it's going to be bad ......

and then you know you may as well go to bed, and turn up for work on Friday

 

[bendeus]

Carwyn James is allowed to exist here, Jeremy Corbyn isn't (officially ).

With Carwyn's electrifying charisma and legendary decisiveness it's small wonder that they're downplaying Corbnobi.

 

[Plumdaff]

It'd be interesting to see similar stuff from Wales, where Welsh Labour is claiming that it's increase in the polls is all about its campaign and noting to do with that Jeremy Corbyn bloke (and I've got a bridge to sell)

The fucking Welsh Labour ad going on about the achievements of the fucking Blair government for Wales. There aren't enough fucking facepalms.

 

[redsquirrel]

Seriously? Which idiot thought that was a good idea. I mean when even people like Umunna is quite n that score it shows the electoral poison of the man.

 

[Wilf]

and then you know you may as well go to bed, and turn up for work on Friday

 

[Plumdaff]

Seriously? Which idiot thought that was a good idea. I mean when even people like Umunna is quite n that score it shows the electoral poison of the man.

Behold the inspiring genius of the sensible implementation of austerity cuts.

 

[JimW]

YouGov's updated aggregator, could be worse. {Edited due to various cock-ups]