Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
Gerry1time
Did a wee in Dirac's toilet
You may know it already, but this effect was (and perhaps still is) a campaign tactic, especially in by elections. You go into a constituency you want to win and think you can win, but currently have little hope of winning, and dump a serious bunch of money at the bookies on your party winning. The bookies then think something is up and shorten the odds on you winning, even to the point of making you the favourite. You then put 'bookies favourite' all over your leaflets during the campaign, and people vote for you thinking you can actually win. When you do win, the bunch of money you put on at long odds pays for a large part of your campaign expenditure.
The daily movements are well within their 95% confidence interval, though, which is HUGE.
Basically, if the YouGov guess is somewhere between 266 and 344 for the Tories, they say there is a 95% chance it then contains the actual polling result. But that's massive! 344 would be an increase on their current majority, albeit a fairly shit one, and be kind of in line with everybody else's polling. 266, on the other hand, would make Labour the largest party. What do we conclude? Nobody has a farking clue, is what.
17-52 for the SNP. That's everything from near domination down to being the minority!
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
wtfftw
melting like a toastie
Google served me this
Seat-by-seat poll predicts which candidate will become your next MP
I should probably comment not just link but it's basically yougov.
Seat-by-seat poll predicts which candidate will become your next MP
I should probably comment not just link but it's basically yougov.
lazythursday
Well-Known Member
Tonight's Survation poll. @Conservatives 41.5% @UKLabour 40.4%
edit - not yet officially released, could be wrong...
edit - not yet officially released, could be wrong...
No wai?
I'm on principle ordering myself to disbelieve this, because it's not the hope that kills you, it's the subsequent despair
Vintage Paw
dead stare and computer glare
Vintage Paw
dead stare and computer glare
No wai?
I'm on principle ordering myself to disbelieve this, because it's not the hope that kills you, it's the subsequent despair
In 2015 it was an overestimation of the youth vote that was mostly responsible for the borked polls. Surely they won't still be overestimating them this time around? The others clearly aren't, but are they weighting it too far in the opposite direction? Or just about right?
We need a young adult child catcher to round 'em all up on Thursday and take them to their polling stations.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Britain Elects confirms it,
CON: 41% (-2)
LAB: 40% (+3)
(via @Survation / 02 - 03 Jun) Chgs. w/ 27 May.
That's why they're all over the place now, surely. Widely varying methods of correcting past errors in methodology.
Dates of that survey : prior to Saturday evening. We need to see post terror-attack polls too ...
Vintage Paw
dead stare and computer glare
Regardless of whether they get it right or not, we'll all be hanging on every single poll they put out next time.
gawkrodger
Well-Known Member
aren't Survation the polling company which is suggesting a ridiclously high youth turnout of something like 80%?
Raheem
Well-Known Member
I think I read that somewhere, but of course they're not.
gawkrodger
Well-Known Member
too late for me to check, but I note in their latest Scottish poll out yesterday they're putting Labour at +8
National seat polling doesn't look anywhere near as exciting as the voting intention polls. They're all on 50+ seat majorities for the tories apart from yougov which has tories 21 short of a majority.
No idea about methodology etc.
As usual a lot will come down to the marginals. That's where it's always at. Just hope labour are doing their best there.
No idea about methodology etc.
As usual a lot will come down to the marginals. That's where it's always at. Just hope labour are doing their best there.
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
Here's Survation's Damien Lyons Lowe explaining their figures, and why he thinks they're right: Conservative Lead Over Labour Has Dropped 16 points In a Month – What’s Going On?
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Not polling as such, but polling derived.
Given the usual caveats about this 'political compass'-style methodology....the 'ideological' mapping of support in 2015 and 2017.
Given the usual caveats about this 'political compass'-style methodology....the 'ideological' mapping of support in 2015 and 2017.
That's very interesting but it does imply the non-existence of voters that are at least within the area defined by (0.2, 0.2), (0.2, 0.5), (0.6, 0.8) and (0.6, 0.6). This is literally the middle ground (it encompasses (0.5, 0.5)) that we are normally told contains MOST of the voters! So what is going on? Has the whole country become totally polarised, or are the LSE's measurements a load of bollocks? Or something else?
chilango
Hypothetical Wanker
As I mentioned somewhere it's certainly feeling more polarised to me.
Yeah, I agree with that. But not as polarised as implied by that political compass-style map, with literally nobody other than at the poles. The majority of people in my own personal bubble are still as middle-ground wishy-washy liberal as they ever were.
not-bono-ever
meh
them fat tails are gonna throw up some surprises. it is all over the place
ItWillNeverWork
Messy Crimbobs, fellow humans.
ItWillNeverWork
Messy Crimbobs, fellow humans.
03gills
Professional Cockwomble
I just have a nagging feeling that this is exactly what will go down. Impressive increase in vote share for Labour considering it's only been two years since the last election. But the vast swathes of UKIP voters going Tory will fuck Labour badly & give the Tories a landslide.
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