J Ed
Follow Back Pro Expropriation
Honestly not just Lib Dems, just posh smug centrists who have swallowed a slew of 'fake news'.
Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
Honestly not just Lib Dems, just posh smug centrists who have swallowed a slew of 'fake news'.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Yeah, but the reason that the vermin with their ultra-neolib policies are polling at 'core +' is that formerly non-tory voters have bought May's myth of her Brexit and privileged that above material considerations of their own interest.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
(YouGov +4)
But the Survation one (which showed the gap closing by 11 points in the last week) was the only one conducted after Question Time. Could there be a causal link? Who knows, but I'd say it counts as a cliffhanger.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Whatever is going on in the polls I doubt QT had much effect. May came across as a smug shit but it was at best a points victory for corbyn.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
I didn't think so, even with his lukewarm attitude to nuclear holocaust, I think he wiped the floor with her, and she with herself. I'll admit that your take seems to be reflected more in the responses to the debate I have seen. But apparently 76% of people in the survey watched either the debate or highlights, so I don't think we can be quick to dismiss the potential for it to have had an impact.
Cid
Proper break this time
Yep, I have a couple of relatives and acquaintances of this ilk... People who actually are Blairites. Some just supporters, some who were members. The key thing with them at the moment is bitterness and vindictiveness. It would take a hell of a lot to swing them to Corbyn.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
Raheem
Well-Known Member
This is the reverse, though. The polls are saying that the Tories should win.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Which four or five elections where these?
Cid
Proper break this time
Nine Bob Note
Self-Isolating before it was fashionable
I'm starting to think that it could be worth ringing in sick on Friday so that I can stay up...
Are there any high-profile cunts other than Clegg who could lose their seats if it all goes tits up for the former condems? Our own Woodcock is going no question, and given his status as one of Jezza's key detractors NW Tonite will likely send a crew along to Barrow town hall. Anyone else? Rudd has a small majority, but the bookies don't think so
Are there any high-profile cunts other than Clegg who could lose their seats if it all goes tits up for the former condems? Our own Woodcock is going no question, and given his status as one of Jezza's key detractors NW Tonite will likely send a crew along to Barrow town hall. Anyone else? Rudd has a small majority, but the bookies don't think so
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
At the peak of Tory polling some people were mentioning Farron, didn't think it was on the cards myself
Cid
Proper break this time
It's a pseud thing I think; I buy the economist whenever I get the train/plane, I buy the FT/Times (and the graun) because I'm an economically active member of society and intellectually engaged with the real, pragmatic side of politics. I deeply admire David Aaronovitch.
The Graun's support of labour might push them a bit, but pushing against a deep-seated sense of entitlement and superiority.
The Graun's support of labour might push them a bit, but pushing against a deep-seated sense of entitlement and superiority.
Nine Bob Note
Self-Isolating before it was fashionable
No chance. I think the locals do like the man and there is no Labour support left in Kendal at all to split the vote.
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
The Tory press are going to go fucking mental between now and Thursday
They've already started plain making things up (the 'garden tax'). Desperate stuff. Expect far worse.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
I can't be bothered digging into it, but those figures for people having seen the debate sound very unlikely, even if it includes youtubers, highlights and the rest. That's Morecambe and Wise Show Christmas Special circa 1976 level.
Nine Bob Note
Self-Isolating before it was fashionable
That's Morecambe and Wise Show Christmas Special circa 1976 level.
Is that the one with Rippon singing and dancing? Fucking baghead.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
"I'm not fucking coming in you cunt,the workers have taken over under and you'll first up against the wall anyway.... what, it was only an exit poll?.... and, what, Tories got a majority of 50?.... yeah, I'll be straight in"
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
If it was anything other than this we'd see something happening on the financial markets. Big capital will have its own polling and analysis.
What are the betting markets up to?
I used to trust betting markets but they got the last few polling upsets just as wrong as the polls... they don't have secret access to anything more accurate than we do.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Polls seem to be diverging even more. Latest ones with tory lead as low as 1 percentage point (Survation, today) and as high as 12 (ComRes, ended yesterday). Have the polls ever diverged this much? And have there ever been so many polling companies? I don't remember there being this many.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
They're less divergent than it seems, because, although no two companies are using exactly the same methodology, you can put them into two groups, based on how likely they think it is that younger people will vote. The ones that are assuming turnout patterns similar to 2015 are giving the Tories a lead that is still in double figures. Others that think turnout will be more like 2010, when more younger people voted, are giving a narrower lead.
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