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Political polling

sheothebudworths said:
Someone, maybe kabbes :hmm: also talked down the potential impact of the youth vote anyway (was it 12% in total?).
I can't work out if that's good news or not.
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Not me, FWIW. Credit for analysis due to those who do it, although I don't know who it was so can't help you there.
 
Raheem said:
They're less divergent than it seems, because, although no two companies are using exactly the same methodology, you can put them into two groups, based on how likely they think it is that younger people will vote. The ones that are assuming turnout patterns similar to 2015 are giving the Tories a lead that is still in double figures. Others that think turnout will be more like 2010, when more younger people voted, are giving a narrower lead.
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Direction of movement is also diverging, though. Some are staying stubbornly in double figures, others showing the lead collapsing.
 
Even different polls from the same polling companies are varying depending on the methodology used.

Survation for example used telephone polling for its survey on 26th/27th of May, showing a 43% / 37% lead for the Tories
Today's Survation poll used online interviews to gather its data, showing a 40% / 39% lead for the Tories.

This does make me wonder about how comparable the two are, especially given this statement on Survation's website on their polling accuracy in previous elections: "Our embarrassingly-considered-rogue final 2015 General Election poll (and the only poll we conducted using our custom telephone methood) correctly picked up the correct Conservative lead over Labour – which was entirely missed by our online work and the industry (including all methods)."

That doesn't particularly inspire confidence in the accuracy of their online polling!
 
strung out said:
Even different polls from the same polling companies are varying depending on the methodology used.

Survation for example used telephone polling for its survey on 26th/27th of May, showing a 43% / 37% lead for the Tories
Today's Survation poll used online interviews to gather its data, showing a 40% / 39% lead for the Tories.

This does make me wonder about how comparable the two are, especially given this statement on Survation's website on their polling accuracy in previous elections: "Our embarrassingly-considered-rogue final 2015 General Election poll (and the only poll we conducted using our custom telephone methood) correctly picked up the correct Conservative lead over Labour – which was entirely missed by our online work and the industry (including all methods)."

That doesn't particularly inspire confidence in the accuracy of their online polling!
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Pollsters are going to have to change the way they present their results, I think, just like weather forecasters have. Weather forecasters now effectively present a range of forecasts with approximate probabilities attached. Pollsters are starting to do this kind of thing also, regarding different results that they predict depending on who actually turns out to vote.
 
France seem to manage with accurate polls, as do most other countries.

Perhaps Brits are just innately dishonest.
 
bi0boy said:
France seem to manage with accurate polls, as do most other countries.

Perhaps Brits are just innately dishonest.
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In presidential elections, France consistently has an 80 per cent turnout. UK turnout is much more volatile due mostly to volatility in the turnout of younger people.

The UK is an outlier on the back of the 2015 election in terms of the difference in voting rate between old and young. Nowhere else in Europe is the gap anywhere near what it was in the UK in 2015. The UK used not to be an outlier - the change has come in the last 20 years. All the signs are that youth turnout will be higher this time than the 38 per cent of last election. The question then becomes 'how much higher?' That, nobody can know.

Then there is the question of voter registration. An estimated 7.5 million people were not registered to vote in 2014. That's an enormous number. Changes to voter registration have affected this, particularly affecting the number of new 18 year-olds registering. They used to be registered by their mum and dad. Now they have to register themselves, and a huge number of them are not doing it.
 
bi0boy said:
France seem to manage with accurate polls, as do most other countries.

Perhaps Brits are just innately dishonest.
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220px-WORLD_ECONOMIC_FORUM_ANNUAL_MEETING_2009_-_Tony_Blair.jpg
280full.jpg
220px-Boris_Johnson_-opening_bell_at_NASDAQ-14Sept2009-3c_cropped.jpg

a selection of britain's foremost liars
 
chilango said:
I've been emailed what appears to be an internal document from a city firm outlining why they should expect a significant Tory majority come Friday despite the polls. I'll sanitize the key extracts at work on Monday.
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Okay. Their absolute confidence in a substantial Tory win (and this has been re-iterated in a copy of an email I was sent earlier this morning) lies in the following:

  1. The relative strengths/weaknesses of the campaigns won't actually translate into a significant number of changed votes (they cite Clegg's campaign in 2010 as evidence).
  2. Strong Tory performances in recent local elections.
  3. They don't think the youth vote will turn out.
  4. The close polls are outliers and are being over-hyped by the media to make the election appear more "exciting" than it actually is.
  5. They simply cannot believe that that many people support Labour.
  6. The UKIP vote will transfer to the Tories.
  7. Postal votes have already been cast and are more likely to be for the Tories.
  8. Polling on "leadership" and the economy both favours the Tories and its this that people vote on.
Interestingly, this firm brought in two "name" experts to provide this analysis, and has sent out further internal emails to defend their projection of a large or very large Conservative majority.
 
Raheem said:
Dunno bout anyone else, but it's this one that convinces me they are not mainly relying on guesswork like everyone else is.
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That did leap out at me.

This is a multi-paged document with graphs and everything, so most of the points are paraphrased. That one is pretty close to verbatim.

My contact is very confident that this forecast is correct.

I'm not so sure.
 
chilango said:
Postal votes have already been cast and are more likely to be for the Tories.
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RE postal votes, I live overseas but I register for a proxy vote and I get my Dad to do it on my behalf. So I don't know if postal voting is a good indicator, mightn't younger people overseas be more likely to do a proxy vote than a postal vote?
 
Rimbaud said:
RE postal votes, I live overseas but I register for a proxy vote and I get my Dad to do it on my behalf. So I don't know if postal voting is a good indicator, mightn't younger people overseas be more likely to do a proxy vote than a postal vote?
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Dunno.

I was overseas for 2001, 2005 and 2010. Didn't vote in any of them.

Traditionally I suspect (though could be wrong) that the older voters are far more likely to vote when overseas than younger voters. Regardless of method.
 
I came across this about the changes to methodology which has resulted in the big differences we're seeing between the companies - well worth reading (it may already have been posted, but I haven't seen it before).

UK Polling Report
 
What concerns me about the change in methodology is the impact it has on how people actually vote. If a party is way behind in the polls it affects morale and there's the phenomenon of people wanting to back a winner. In trying to reflect what the result will end up being rather than how people in general feel about the two parties (whether they actually vote or not) the polls could significantly affect voting behaviour. It is a bit of an ethical minefield.
 
killer b said:
I came across this about the changes to methodology which has resulted in the big differences we're seeing between the companies - well worth reading (it may already have been posted, but I haven't seen it before).

UK Polling Report
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I think I posted that a few days back. (I certainly intended to). But you're right, it's worth paying attention to.

"There have been a wide variety of changes (including YouGov interlocking past vote & region, ICM changing how they reallocate don’t knows, ICM and ComRes now both doing only online polls during the campaign). However, the core changes seem to boil down to two approaches: some companies have focused on improving the sample itself, trying to include more people who aren’t interested in politics, who are less well educated and don’t usually vote. Other companies have focused on correcting the problems caused by less than representative samples, changing their turnout model so it is based more on demographics, and forcing it to more accurately reflect turnout patterns in the real world. Some companies have done a bit of both."
 
chilango said:
Okay. Their absolute confidence in a substantial Tory win (and this has been re-iterated in a copy of an email I was sent earlier this morning) lies in the following:

  1. The relative strengths/weaknesses of the campaigns won't actually translate into a significant number of changed votes (they cite Clegg's campaign in 2010 as evidence).
  2. Strong Tory performances in recent local elections.
  3. They don't think the youth vote will turn out.
  4. The close polls are outliers and are being over-hyped by the media to make the election appear more "exciting" than it actually is.
  5. They simply cannot believe that that many people support Labour.
  6. The UKIP vote will transfer to the Tories.
  7. Postal votes have already been cast and are more likely to be for the Tories.
  8. Polling on "leadership" and the economy both favours the Tories and its this that people vote on.
Interestingly, this firm brought in two "name" experts to provide this analysis, and has sent out further internal emails to defend their projection of a large or very large Conservative majority.
Click to expand...
Not sure about 5 and 8, but broadly i think they are right.
 
chilango said:
The relative strengths/weaknesses of the campaigns won't actually translate into a significant number of changed votes (they cite Clegg's campaign in 2010 as evidence)
Click to expand...

That's a big thing for me. Only sparse, but I've ready a few things where people have slated mostly May, sometimes the whole party, but at the end have said they'll still vote Tory.

You see it for other parties too, of course, but the stuff where we think "that's mad, they're woeful, they can't recover..." - Tory voters don't care enough to actually change their vote.
 
Lord Camomile said:
That's a big thing for me. Only sparse, but I've ready a few things where people have slated mostly May, sometimes the whole party, but at the end have said they'll still vote Tory.

You see it for other parties too, of course, but the stuff where we think "that's mad, they're woeful, they can't recover..." - Tory voters don't care enough to actually change their vote.
Click to expand...
This is true of the tribal Tories - increasingly, voters just aren't so tribal though.
 
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