Political polling

[strung out]

How has Survation previously read? I can't remember.

43% / 36% on May 30th
43% / 34% on May 22nd
46% / 34% on May 20th
48% / 30% on May 15th

 

[killer b]

This afternoon I was listening to a phone in on radio 4 - any answers. There was a range of people calling, but noticeably there was loads of lifelong Tory voters switching to Labour. Loads. All over the dementia tax and winter fuel.

 

[JimW]

This afternoon I was listening to a phone in on radio 4 - any answers. There was a range of people calling, but noticeably there was loads of lifelong Tory voters switching to Labour. Loads. All over the dementia tax and winter fuel.

How foolish are they going to feel when the North Koreans nuke us?

 

[J Ed]

This afternoon I was listening to a phone in on radio 4 - any answers. There was a range of people calling, but noticeably there was loads of lifelong Tory voters switching to Labour. Loads. All over the dementia tax and winter fuel.

There will of course also be many more who won't be able to bring themselves to vote for Labour but who won't turn out for the Tories either.

 

[brogdale]

Good, but assuming a 'youth' turnout of 82% looks well off the mark.

Sorry scrub that...I think it's 50%...shouldn't trust others to do the full tabs reading for me.

 

[magneze]

Some follow up on that. The "event" being QT.

 

[J Ed]

Sorry scrub that...I think it's 50%...shouldn't trust others to do the full tabs reading for me.

Youth turnout in 2010 was 49%

 

[sheothebudworths]

Good, but assuming a 'youth' turnout of 82% looks well off the mark.

Someone, can't remember who also talked down the potential impact of the youth vote anyway (was it 12% in total?).
I can't work out if that's good news or not.

 

[not a trot]

The Tory press are going to go fucking mental between now and Thursday

 

[sheothebudworths]

Sorry scrub that...I think it's 50%...shouldn't trust others to do the full tabs reading for me.

OH!

 

[brogdale]

Youth turnout in 2010 was 49%

44% in 2015, I think.
Will be higher this time, and the degree to which will determine the outcome. Anyone wanting a Corbyn victory would be well advised to find young adults and walk them around to their polling stations.

 

[brogdale]

OH!

It's 'good' news.

 

[redsquirrel]

How foolish are they going to feel when the North Koreans nuke us?

 

[magneze]

 

[magneze]

 

[magneze]

All over the place.

 

[J Ed]

Well at least we've gone from just being like 'Yougov better be right' to 'Yougov and Survation better be right'.

 

[brogdale]

 

[brogdale]

Vermin will be relieved with raft of 40+ stability.

 

[Sirena]

Labour ahead of Conservatives by three points in new unadjusted poll

and.....

18-24 Year old Voting Intention:
LAB: 68%
CON: 16%
LDEM: 8%
GRN: 3%
UKIP: 1%
(ICM Research)

 

[brogdale]

Labour ahead of Conservatives by three points in new unadjusted poll

and.....

18-24 Year old Voting Intention:
LAB: 68%
CON: 16%
LDEM: 8%
GRN: 3%
UKIP: 1%
(ICM Research)

That really is staggeringly bad for the Greens in their key demographic.

 

[brogdale]

Apologies for any party pooping here...but...

Summary of Con leads tonight ComRes +12 ICM +11 ORB +9 Opinium +6 Survation +1

 

[brogdale]

more poop...

 

[magneze]

 

[bi0boy]

Polling averages couldn't be more useless, ignore them.

 

[Wilf]

more poop...

View attachment 108401

My extra slice of poop is that I feel it's going to be an even wider gap on Thursday. Only way that will change is if Theresa May does something like talking to the voters between now and then.

 

[brogdale]

Makes you wonder just how piss-poor the vermin would have to become to repel the Brexit-addled.

 

[J Ed]

Makes you wonder just how piss-poor the vermin would have to become to repel the Brexit-addled.

The Brexit-addled? The most vocally Labour-adverse people I've spoken to on the basis of EU referendum beef recently are remoaners.

 

[Wilf]

Apologies for any party pooping here...but...

Summary of Con leads tonight ComRes +12 ICM +11 ORB +9 Opinium +6 Survation +1

Irony is, I've been saying the polls were going to go back to the tories this week. Because they didn't quite do and there were a couple of good ones for corbo, I was almost expecting a 1% lead for Labour in one of the ones tonight. ((((my easily swayed emotions))))

 

[brogdale]

The Brexit-addled? The most vocally Labour-adverse people I've spoken to on the basis of EU referendum beef recently are remoaners.

Lib Dems?