Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
Ole
Well-Known Member
It's a notable observation regardless, but it holds for the weighted base as well.
It shows that many UKIP voters are going Labour.
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
Interesting blog from John Curtice suggesting Scottish Labour is benefitting from the Corbyn effect. His title is well-chosen: it's an overflow effect, not something locally generated.
There's a number of reasons we know this is overspill, but chiefly: 1. there really is no Labour campaign in Scotland, as the party activist base is completely demoralised. 2. The party in Scotland is anti Corbyn anyway. (Their sole MP has been vocally anti Corbyn, and has, for example, left previous anti Corbyn remarks up on his social media even through the election campaign). 3. As Curtice notes, it is Corbyn's stance and policies that people cite, rather than Dugdale's or the Scottish party's performance.
The Labour Surge Washes Over Hadrian's Wall - What Scotland Thinks
It's perhaps worth noting that the old guard of stale dinosaurs were wiped out at the last GE and none is standing this time. (Though Blair MacDougall, the Better Togethet chief, is standing. But his recognition rating is probably nowhere near what he thinks it is). Perhaps the voters think the clean out was enough to rehabilitate the party.
There's a number of reasons we know this is overspill, but chiefly: 1. there really is no Labour campaign in Scotland, as the party activist base is completely demoralised. 2. The party in Scotland is anti Corbyn anyway. (Their sole MP has been vocally anti Corbyn, and has, for example, left previous anti Corbyn remarks up on his social media even through the election campaign). 3. As Curtice notes, it is Corbyn's stance and policies that people cite, rather than Dugdale's or the Scottish party's performance.
The Labour Surge Washes Over Hadrian's Wall - What Scotland Thinks
It's perhaps worth noting that the old guard of stale dinosaurs were wiped out at the last GE and none is standing this time. (Though Blair MacDougall, the Better Togethet chief, is standing. But his recognition rating is probably nowhere near what he thinks it is). Perhaps the voters think the clean out was enough to rehabilitate the party.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Yeah, I feel like the Ancient Mariner, forever compelled to be the voice of doom, but I can't see a way to even a hung parliament. For it to be anything other than a tory majority, several things that don't normally happen have to happen. In a period of mad volatility* in the polls, the fact that there hasn't been a single Labour lead is also telling. It's interesting how Labour's numbers haven't suffered too much after the terrorist outrages, but Labour haven't quite managed to become the vehicle for the resentments that drove Brexit. They've done well and provided the basis for something to be built in the future, but I just have a feeling it will be a 10%, even 12% tory lead on Thursday.I just have a nagging feeling that this is exactly what will go down. Impressive increase in vote share for Labour considering it's only been two years since the last election. But the vast swathes of UKIP voters going Tory will fuck Labour badly & give the Tories a landslide.
* Well, a kind of volatility. Massive differences between polling companies, but a clear direction of travel towards Labour - but one which seems to have stopped now.
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
recon theres some pickup from an 'anyone but the tories or the SNP' vote seeing tory leaflets etc and grudgingly nose holding?
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
Possibly. I do think it's actually enthusiasm for Corbyn and his mild renationalisation programme.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Impressive bar chart.
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
*Not to scale.Impressive bar chart.
Ole
Well-Known Member
Certainly there are now more UKIP->Labour voters than UKIP->UKIP voters. That is impressive.
Ole
Well-Known Member
Impressive bar chart.
free spirit
more tea vicar?
It says it's reflecting the mean views of each party's supporters, so presumably there will be some percentages of support around those coloured areas as well.
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
Still think Labour should be pushing a 'Take back control' theme aimed at UKIP demographic - reclaiming our railways and post office. It's a policy with a lot of support. Unfortunately I think a lot of the domestic policy issues have been crowded out by terrorism and security, which I think is to Labour's disadvantage.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Yep, sounds good, a way of genuinely making brexit into something useful. On your other point, I think Labour have been hit by the terror stuff, but nobody seems to have got any particular theme running consistently throughout the election - even brexit for the tories, which is what the whole things was supposed to be about.
chilango
Hypothetical Wanker
Just one point.
Labour don't have to be in the lead for the Tories to lose their majority.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Yeah, true, but I was just getting at the fact that even amidst the very wide variations in the polls Labour has never managed even a 1% lead. As a result, it doesn't bode well for them just losing by say 2% which, at a guess, is the territory they'd have to be in for a Lab + SNP + libscum to be anywhere near the finishing line.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
I'm not too sure how much this still holds, but the old truism used to be that a party getting over 40% does very well out of the fpp system. A logic that we are probably back to as ukip and libs fall back. As such the tories polling over 40 is the real problem. Con 42 Lab 39 is far worse than Con 36 Lab 33, iyswim.
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
Theoretically, Labour doesn't even need more votes in order to have more seats. In 1951, Churchill won more seats than Labour with fewer votes.
It's more likely that the Tories would perform this feat. But there are ways it could happen.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
And Feb 74, though the other way round.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
one thing which is (fairly) certain is that the polls will all differ significantly from the final result. and there will be another inconclusive post mortem.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
in the same way the tabloids link e.g. arsenal with every player going so they can say, for example, 'as we reported back in july, klinghoffer has signed for arsenal' or similar.
one of them MUST be right
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