Political polling

[danny la rouge]

There are loads of pro-Corbyn ads.

Ah, OK. I was going to ask how I'm missing all these, but it's by not doing anything modern.

 

[frogwoman]

Oh yeah worth saying that the tory MP was going on about 'the coalition of chaos with Jeremy Corbyn' and pretty much everyone was laughing at her.

 

[danny la rouge]

Oh yeah worth saying that the tory MP was going on about 'the coalition of chaos with Jeremy Corbyn' and pretty much everyone was laughing at her.

I know I'm not the target audience for that phrase, but to me it sounds ace.

 

[belboid]

I recently discovered that the Cuban revolution in Trinidad was largely led by a bloke named Chaos. how could he ever have failed?

 

[frogwoman]

Yeah, the green guy was also brilliantly terrible at public speaking as well at one point it was his turn to answer an audience question and he said 'oh sorry I've got to go to the toilet' and another he gave an answer and then said 'oh dear I've bumped my nose on the microphone'

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

probably renewed calls for el corbo to go though, maybe even YET ANOTHER leadership challenge- they'll spin anything other than a win as a disaster for him and his policies

They can call for what they like can't they - they can't win an internal election until they manage to stitch it up.

 

[Teaboy]

They can call for what they like can't they - they can't win an internal election until they manage to stitch it up.

That's why Corbyn will almost certainly stay on afterwards in anything other than a massive landslide for the tories. Corbyn knows he will win internal elections the problem is he lacks the numbers in the PLP to get a suitable (if one exists) replacement nominated.

 

[frogwoman]

I met some people from the labour party last night and they said they have never had so many people out delivering leaflets etc. They were all a bit uncertain about corbyn as well but they said that recently they don't have as many 'concerns about his electability' lol

 

[Libertad]

Do you drink your fifths or flat them? (Apologies for the jargony gag, but if there's anyone nerdy enough to get it we can do a virtual high five).

High ten.

 

[frogwoman]

Yeah, the green guy was also brilliantly terrible at public speaking as well at one point it was his turn to answer an audience question and he said 'oh sorry I've got to go to the toilet' and another he gave an answer and then said 'oh dear I've bumped my nose on the microphone'

There was a question about the environment and he went on a random tangent about how 'in Barnet there are some terrible traffic jams'

 

[Cid]

Can't be arsed to trawl the thread, but is there a decent, in-depth explanation of polling methods and who uses what out there? and track record.

 

[treelover]

In trying to find out if deliberately watching their ad costs them money, which I haven't as yet, I did find this round-up of attack ads from the beeb. Given the spending brouhaha after the last election this is probably going to get quite a lot of analysis after the election. They make the point




I certainly haven't been targetted * but I'm not sure any individual can draw conclusions based only on their own experience. It's not what the BBC have reported



But i still don't know if deliberately seeking out the ads costs the tories money. I don't particularly want to make extra profit for Facebook or Google, but...

* but I have been wondering why something called BlightyTV has been popping up on Youtube. Turns out it's linked on the tory facebook main page. hmm.

the "Garden Tax" is now today's topic of conversation in the office this morning and not in a good way for Lab - Tories would do well to hammer that between now & election day

Never even heard of it.

 

[redsquirrel]

Can't be arsed to trawl the thread, but is there a decent, in-depth explanation of polling methods and who uses what out there? and track record.

This the type of thing you want?

 

[hot air baboon]

Never even heard of it.

quite so - says something about the slow, flat-footed Tory campaign

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

New Ipsos MORI phone poll



CON 45% LAB 40%

 

[brogdale]

New Ipsos MORI phone poll



CON 45% LAB 40%

Impressive trend.

 

[brogdale]

 

[Smangus]

cat, pigeons etc . Nice

 

[kabbes]

Ipsos Mori seem to update less often than some of the others, so that ten point swing is in 2 weeks and in line with the others over that period. It's jaw-dropping because we aren't used to 10 point swings in two weeks, not because it is particularly out of line -- two weeks ago, everybody had the Tories with a lead of about 15 points, now 5 is more typical. Incredible but true.

 

[Teaboy]

Oh to be a fly on the wall in the tory HQ.

 

[Dogsauce]

Oh to be a fly on the wall in the tory HQ.

The Hitler bunker clip will appear in due course.

 

[redsquirrel]

That Ipsos Mori is interesting because IIRC they have focused on correcting for turnout rather than taking the YouGov/Survation approach of trying to improve sampling, so two different methods now showing a lead of 5-6%.

EDIT: Actually scratch that I'm confusing Ipsos Mori and ICM.

 

[Lord Camomile]

This has Labour losing seats

 

[redsquirrel]

This has Labour losing seats

Yep, all models bar YouGov's show an increased Tory majority and BritainElects uses an running average of the last polls by each pollster so they have the Tories 9% ahead of Labour.

 

[Lord Camomile]

Yep, all models bar YouGov's show an increased Tory majority and BritainElects uses an running average of the last polls by each pollster so they have the Tories up 9% in Labour.

Ohh wait, I suppose I was conflating 'voting intentions' (e.g. in IpsoMori above) with 'seats won'.

 

[billy_bob]

I know I'm not the target audience for that phrase, but to me it sounds ace.

The advantage of a coalition of chaos, over unilateral one-party chaos, is that you have some hope the different strands of chaos will occasionally cancel each other out.

 

[newbie]

I don't think so - for her personally a gain of one seat would be a disaster. Obviously she'd still be PM in the short term but her standing would be destroyed, and the other Tories who fancy the job would be getting into line.

(possibly amongst other reasons) she called the election because her backbenches contained sufficient potential rebels to threaten her stability and make her look weak. If she fails to gain a clear personal mandate by substantially increasing her majority she's toast and they're into trench warfare. Which will be fun to watch if nothing else

 

[frogwoman]

(possibly amongst other reasons) she called the election because her backbenches contained sufficient potential rebels to threaten her stability and make her look weak. If she fails to gain a clear personal mandate by substantially increasing her majority she's toast and they're into trench warfare. Which will be fun to watch if nothing else

Even staying on the same number of seats would be shit for them. They were expecting a landslide. Isn't the majority at the moment about 6?

 

[agricola]

the "Garden Tax" is now today's topic of conversation in the office this morning and not in a good way for Lab - Tories would do well to hammer that between now & election day

It has been pushed a bit - though it always falls down because the mention of it in the manifesto only says that they'll consider it, and the people who it would impact on most are people who do not have "gardens" as they are commonly understood.

 

[newbie]

Even staying on the same number of seats would be shit for them. They were expecting a landslide. Isn't the majority at the moment about 6?

Absolute majority of 17 at dissolution. She needs an increased majority measured by the dozen to make her position secure.