littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
I'm almost at the point of believing that the real picture might be to the left of the yougov figures.
I need to stop doing this.
I need to stop doing this.
Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
agricola
a genuine importer of owls
Indeed, and if anything has done that its the Tory social care policy. I'd guess most people who thought that they and their family were alright did so because they had got on the housing ladder early enough and owned their own home; threaten it (which is explicitly what that policy does, and if anything the u-turn since makes it even more obvious) and you suddenly expose them to everything that has been going on housing, with workplace terms and conditions and the rest of it.
J Ed
Follow Back Pro Expropriation
A family member today was visiting a market town in a safe Tory seat today with a population that is disproportionately quite old. She said that Tory MPs were campaigning there and were met with a combination of total disinterest and a bit of hostility. Not claiming that this is representative or anything but interesting perhaps!
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
I'm keeping a stony face. As always over anything
Raheem
Well-Known Member
I'm almost at the point of believing that the real picture might be to the left of the yougov figures.
I need to stop doing this.
If YouGov's model implies a demographic split in the turnout similar to 2010, then for their figures to underestimate the Labour vote, one of two things would need to happen. Either Corbyn would need to have a greater appeal at the younger end of the spectrum than Nick Clegg did. And/or, at the older end of the spectrum, people would need to be less enthused by May than they were by Cameron. Surely neither of those things is possible?
Monkeygrinder's Organ
Dodgy geezer swilling vapid lager
That seems quite likely no? Given the whole dementia tax thing, that can't have played well with older people.
agricola
a genuine importer of owls
Why not? Corbyn's policies deliberately aim to appeal to the young, and May's deliberately aim to negatively affect the old.
Dunno. Cameron pissed a lot of die hard tories off because they thought he was a phony, hence in part the rise of UKIP during his tenure.
J Ed
Follow Back Pro Expropriation
Yes, I think that May probably does appeal more to older voters who prioritise social conservativism. Whether the dementia tax stuff is enough to offset that, we'll have to see. I think it could go either way.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
I've just looked up youth turnout, and it has plummetted since 1992, recovering somewhat in 2010. But if Corbyn can get an equal turnout to Blair in 97, which itself was way down on 92, he will be doing better than Clegg in 2010. I think this is very possible, given that the UK has recently been a massive outlier among countries around the world regarding youth no-shows. A rise back to 50-odd % might be better thought of as a reversion to the mean following the exceptional circumstances that were the years of disillusionment during the New Labour Iraq War years.
To add to this, yougov has been marking down responses from people who didn't vote in 2015. This is reactive statty stuff that doesn't even try to account for the reasons for the changes in voting patterns. If you factor in post-Iraq feelings of disenfranchisement and hypothesise this as the reason for the UK straying so far from voting patterns in other countries (which may of course be wrong!), then this practice could be wrong, and even in the yougov figures, they weight the results against labour.
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littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
That bit's already accounted for in the polls, though. It's one of the reasons why the tories still have a lead despite being a shower of hopeless cunts.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
This is a fair point, actually. They would have still voted, but they would have voted for UKIP. So the question is really whether they are likely to be more or less enthused by May/Nuttall compared to Cameron/Farage.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Sorry, my response to monkeygrinder was really to you. That's already accounted for in the polls. It's the reason for the tory lead currently.
Plumdaff
joy in people
It's the dementia tax, and the end of the triple lock promise. I'm still shocked they went for both. My FIL explicitly said he'd be voting Tory because they always protect pensioners at the beginning of this campaign. I think it will have been a horrid surprise for a lot of older voters that the Tories were finally gunning for them too.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
Sorry, what's the reason for the Tory lead?
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
YouGov Wales one (29-31 May 2017)
Labour: 46%
Conservatives: 35%
Plaid Cymru: 8%
Liberal Democrats: 5%
Ukip: 5%
Which they project in terms of seat changes (using what method I've no idea)
Labour: 27 seats (+2)
Conservatives: 9 seats (-2)
Plaid Cymru: 3 seats (no change)
Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (no change)
Labour: 46%
Conservatives: 35%
Plaid Cymru: 8%
Liberal Democrats: 5%
Ukip: 5%
Which they project in terms of seat changes (using what method I've no idea)
Labour: 27 seats (+2)
Conservatives: 9 seats (-2)
Plaid Cymru: 3 seats (no change)
Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (no change)
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
When maiden aunts bicycling to evensong turn Corbyn, the red flag will fly over the Palace of Westminster.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
You were indicating factors that suggest what I said can't happen. But any comparison of May to Cameron is already in the polls. If anything, that's also getting worse by the day. Also, Cameron was up against a pretty woeful Brown.
Plumdaff
joy in people
I would fucking love it, in a Kevin Keegan style, if they lost Cardiff North and Cardiff went entirely red.
Gower must be a certainty to go back to Labour.
Must. Not. Get. Heady.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Apparently the two they are predicting to change hands are Gower and the Vale of Clwyd
Raheem
Well-Known Member
You're thinking in terms of whether older Tories will switch. But the issue is that more of them may stop in than the pollsters are prediciting. I'm not saying this will happen, but if it did, it would make their models too skewed to the Tories.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
I'm still skeptical that there will not be an increased Tory majority but I do think the Wales thing was always nonsense, I mean last year Labour took 30+% in the assembly elections, the idea that the Tories were going to win the majority of Welsh seats was always fanciful.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Not really. I was simply concentrating on the measures polling companies have taken post-2015 to correct for past errors. Those measures are made purely on stats, not accounting for reasons (such as, for instance, disillusionment with the entire system caused by the Iraq war) - not asking any 'why' questions. Even the yougov bloke acknowledges this in part when he wonders how much Corbyn might enthuse young voters.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
But there are no stats for turnout until the day of the election. If the pollsters are trying to guess at what turnout will be without reference to what may or may not motivate different demographic groups, then it is entirely possible that they are underestimating the level of support there will be for Labour on the day, and overestimating Tory support.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Con 300 seats
Lab 270 seats
SNP 50 seats
Other 30 seats
Jeremy Corbyn to be the next prime minister as the leader of the Coalition of Chaos.
Lab 270 seats
SNP 50 seats
Other 30 seats
Jeremy Corbyn to be the next prime minister as the leader of the Coalition of Chaos.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
What's that? A model or just your prediction/hope?
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
The most striking thing to me about the various things I've linked to has been the variation from other countries regarding the youth vote in the UK over the last 20 years. I suspect that the reasons for this are largely to do with the Iraq war and New Labourism. Those reasons are finally gone, so that is a prediction based on the polls plus that hypothesis.
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
polling has showed that under 25s are overwhelmingly saying they will vote labour and their has been a big boost in voter registration - again, especially amongst young people.
I am certain their will be a bigger turn out amongst young people and it may be that the tories granny kicking manifesto will depress the older vote. The extent that this will happen is the big question - and will determine weather we have a hung parliament of a tory majority of up to 60/70.
I am pretty certain a three figure majority is beyond them now.
I am certain their will be a bigger turn out amongst young people and it may be that the tories granny kicking manifesto will depress the older vote. The extent that this will happen is the big question - and will determine weather we have a hung parliament of a tory majority of up to 60/70.
I am pretty certain a three figure majority is beyond them now.
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