Political polling
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
Plenty of Tory posters in the very posh parts of Sheff, few Lib Dumps as well.
bendeus
Bellend Tagline Generator
Another anecdote: true, blue single mum I know, earns £70k plus per year. Very aspirational, loves her designer kit, drivers a Beemer, etc. Never voted anything other than Tory all her life and is now going red. Says that Corbnobi's policies are 'hopeful' and 'positive'. Agrees that the Maybot is wooden and evidently unpleasant and cruel. Says she has nothing to offer. Really surprising vote face but entirely intentional. I have no doubt that she'll put her cross next to Labour next week.
Fez909
toilet expert
The latest new-fangled daily poll from YouGov is out. Slight increase in Tory seat count, but basically the same as yesterday.
Follow the 2017 UK General Election with YouGov
Con: 42% (317), Lab: 38% (253), Lib Dem: 9% (9), UKIP: 3% (0)
Follow the 2017 UK General Election with YouGov
Con: 42% (317), Lab: 38% (253), Lib Dem: 9% (9), UKIP: 3% (0)
Vintage Paw
dead stare and computer glare
Those putting their faith in the yougov stuff are going to be so disappointed on june 9th. I mean, I'm going to be too, because even if you expect it to happen the return of yet another tory govt and this time with a big majority is going to be utter shit.
strung out
💩 🤣 🍆 💦 🧐 👻 🐝 🐈⬛
It's not the despair Laura, I can stand the despair, it's the hope I can't stand.
Don't know about Clwyd, but my old school Labour/TU mate Eddy is a ward organiser (and constant canvasser/leafletter) near to a posh bit of Swansea West that for him is actually just within Gower, albeit his ward does include a real mix of Gower/Mumbles poshoes togteher with an equally wide mix of on the edge of Swansea dwellers.
But Toni Antoniazzi (Lab candidate, Gower) has a huge and active team throughout the Swansea side of Gower, and Eddy (retired, fit, active) is pushing his gang along load in just his part.
Labour are hugely publicising the uselessness of Byron Davies (Con) big time, and justifiably, because he's done fuck all round that area. Frinstance, he makes feeble claims to have brought the Swansea Bay Tidal Barrage forward.
Reality : the Barrage project is at a standstill atm, and Byron has zero to do with Swansea Council or Carwyn James (proper) roles with that, because Byron is a fucking Tory who bashes Welsh Labour authorities/bodies all the time..
He also pretends to support Swansea Council in getting various SA projects happening, but Antoniazzi called him a liar on those. And even the Tory-minded Swansea Evening Post left her alone on that
Last edited:
TLDR?? 
Byron Davies' Tory majority in Gower is 27 and Labour will swing that easily with all their genuine hard work just now.
Very smart anti-Tory, straight-to-gadget stuff is going on as well, locally targetted. Da Youf might just turn out anti-Tory on the day
Byron Davies' Tory majority in Gower is 27 and Labour will swing that easily with all their genuine hard work just now.
Very smart anti-Tory, straight-to-gadget stuff is going on as well, locally targetted. Da Youf might just turn out anti-Tory on the day
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
I don't know if Smithson's blog from yesterday was posted?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another day of the polls tightening but only YouGov has TMay not securing a majority
"The critical calculation to make is how much a poll lead is at variance with the GB CON margin on 6.6% that was enough at GE2015 to give Mr. Cameron and now Mrs. May a majority.
Under standard swing theory the Tories should be gaining seats if they secure a gap of 6.6% or more next Thursday and suffer seat losses if their national vote share is much below that.
For me what’s been significant is that Theresa May now making visits not just to targets which they hope to gain to but seats they already hold. That reflects a certain loss of confidence."
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another day of the polls tightening but only YouGov has TMay not securing a majority
"The critical calculation to make is how much a poll lead is at variance with the GB CON margin on 6.6% that was enough at GE2015 to give Mr. Cameron and now Mrs. May a majority.
Under standard swing theory the Tories should be gaining seats if they secure a gap of 6.6% or more next Thursday and suffer seat losses if their national vote share is much below that.
For me what’s been significant is that Theresa May now making visits not just to targets which they hope to gain to but seats they already hold. That reflects a certain loss of confidence."
J Ed
Follow Back Pro Expropriation
Wow. Smithson fucking hates Corbyn too, he must really believe what he is saying.
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
But again, what he's saying is: tightening, Tories losing confidence. However all but YouGov still have Tories taking majority.
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
Brexit and the enthused youth vote is fucking up the polls.
Remainers, da kids and soft brexiters may be going to labour
Whilst brexiters are going tory.
So it may be that the tories do better in strong brexit areas and labour do better in strong remain areas. So projections based on universal swing and/or previous voting patterns are likley to be an unreliable guide to what will happen next week.
One thing that im pretty sure of is that the tories have a solid bloc of older, quiet voters who will dutifully vote for them whilst the labour support is a lot more volatile.
Im still going for modest tory majority.
Remainers, da kids and soft brexiters may be going to labour
Whilst brexiters are going tory.
So it may be that the tories do better in strong brexit areas and labour do better in strong remain areas. So projections based on universal swing and/or previous voting patterns are likley to be an unreliable guide to what will happen next week.
One thing that im pretty sure of is that the tories have a solid bloc of older, quiet voters who will dutifully vote for them whilst the labour support is a lot more volatile.
Im still going for modest tory majority.
Cid
Proper break this time
Yep, even if she only takes one more seat than 2015 her 'decision to call and election was a success, building a stronger, stabler government to negotiate Britain's future'. Only yougov is consistently delivering below that...
There's so much about this election that is hard to predict, but there's that innate human tendency to emphasize factors that buoy up 'your side'. There's every chance of a shy tory vote, every chance that the embittered centrist LP remain a large factor, that Corbyn's somewhat lacklustre performances leave people at home. Fuck knows how they're dealing with this in their models, I suspect to some extent they aren't.
I mean I'm hopeful, but er... that goes with being human really.
Cid
Proper break this time
It's on that point that I think May's media blackout works. She'll come in for criticism of course, but she's not able to do the things that make her look actively incompetent. Moved to a purely defensive campaign, knowing that labour's ability to attack is limited by finance and the extent of press compliance.
Monkeygrinder's Organ
Dodgy geezer swilling vapid lager
Cid
Proper break this time
That did seem a bit eulogising of May... I mean I agree, I think she's scuppered even with a slight-moderate gain; her spads are probably sitting in meetings, appalled faces in hands wondering what the fuck is wrong with her. And clearly anyone with power in the party will be thinking the same thing. I just mean she can trot out the line that she achieved her objectives... Then maybe shuffled quietly out with some words about her health or similar.
Doctor Carrot
Marxist Henchman
I've stuck a tenner on hung parliament and I very rarely bet. My reasons are I've been listening to lbc a lot and there's been almost non stop calls from people saying they're either switching to labour, libs or abstain, but mostly switching to labour. Also, apparently the yougov model that predicted the hung parliament was used for the EU referendum on more than one occasion and it predicted leave each time.
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
Non scientific anecdote: In the way that these things seem to happen, having only just discussed this yesterday, one of my students later brought it up.
He always tries to divert me with current affairs if he thinks I'm about to make him play an arpeggio he hasn't practised. (I'm actually not proud that this usually works for him, but what can I say?) Anyway he said he'd seen the adverts for Corbyn on YouTube and asked if I thought he'd win. Now I didn't linger on the topic because the fucker hadn't practiced his half diminished but from the way he was talking this was a pro Corbyn ad. Are there such things or did he mean the Tory ad? If the latter, it's misfired.
(It should be added this guy is 16 so not a voter anyway).
All the parties are running targeted advertising on social media (one of Mcdonnell's recent begging emails was to raise funds to do a campaign encouraging registation a few days before the registration deadline, for example) - so it's impossible to be sure without further details.
'this man could be prime minister' strikes me as a particularly poor start to a hit ad though, I must say.
'this man could be prime minister' strikes me as a particularly poor start to a hit ad though, I must say.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
I went to a hustings last night in Barnet, the tory MP was booed and laughed at frequently and the labour candidate got loads of applause. I still think the tories will win but I don't think it will be a landslide. If they get back in with a reduced majority that will still be a terrible result for them.
JimW
支那暗杀团
I should sign up, I don't even have to practice to be half diminished.
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
I'm only being targeted by Tory leaflets (physical).
hot air baboon
Well-Known Member
the "Garden Tax" is now today's topic of conversation in the office this morning and not in a good way for Lab - Tories would do well to hammer that between now & election day
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
probably renewed calls for el corbo to go though, maybe even YET ANOTHER leadership challenge- they'll spin anything other than a win as a disaster for him and his policies
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
Do you drink your fifths or flat them? (Apologies for the jargony gag, but if there's anyone nerdy enough to get it we can do a virtual high five).
Cid
Proper break this time
There are loads of pro-Corbyn ads.
e2a: or do you mean a sponsored ad? like one of the ones that appears before the video you want to watch?
It feels to me that there is a general recognition that Labour have run a good election challenge and that Corbyn is increasingly popular with the electorate as they actually see him. If that is also backed up with an improved performance vs 2015, it surely strengthens Corbyn's position as leader. I'd say anything better than a Tory majority of a dozen or so should (although who knows?) keep him fighting on.
Similar threads
