Political polling

[frogwoman]

Absolute majority of 17 at dissolution. She needs an increased majority measured by the dozen to make her position secure.

If she ended up with a majority of 2 that would still be brilliant.

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

I like the cut of this fellow's jib

 

[killer b]

He's going to have a surfeit of yellow pieces.

 

[Raheem]

He's going to have a surfeit of yellow pieces.

And he's going to have to take a fire engine apart for the extra reds.

 

[Smangus]

No Star Wars bits?

 

[butchersapron]

“Bitter lemon. Because he’s bitter, and a lemon.”

 

[killer b]

These satisfaction ratings are important IMO: the lines the Tory campaign is built around actually begin to work against them the less satisfied people are with May's performance. Marvelous stuff.

 

[newbie]

If she ended up with a majority of 2 that would still be brilliant.

IKWYM but no absolute tory majoirty is brilliant.

otoh thinking about the longer term a minority government teetering along is not a great way to approach the Brexit negotiations.

 

[danny la rouge]

 

[Teaboy]

“Bitter lemon. Because he’s bitter, and a lemon.”

Yeah whilst the 'strong and stable' thing is certainly floundering it definitely plays into the general desire for a strong leader who will fight all these perceived (real and imaginary) battles. It's always been Corbyn's electoral weakness and it will be why, imo, many people will grudgingly vote for May. A massive shame but there we are.

 

[Dogsauce]

It's not like they'll be sat in Brexit negotiations making all the decisions themselves. It's bollocks cartoon stuff to paint it that way. May will probably bottle it and send some ineffectual deputy.

 

[Teaboy]

It's not like they'll be sat in Brexit negotiations making all the decisions themselves. It's bollocks cartoon stuff to paint it that way.

Of course, but the perception is there that its going to be massive dust-up that everyone concession will have to be fought for. In reality it will be a bunch of capitalists making sure the flow of capital is not fucked up.

 

[DotCommunist]

Of course, but the perception is there that its going to be massive dust-up that everyone concession will have to be fought for. In reality it will be a bunch of capitalists making sure the flow of capital is not fucked up.

I wouldn't rule out a certain level of protectionism and attempts to lever out some of that money we will no longer be contributing- theres already been talk of a divorce payment iirc

 

[killer b]

Yeah whilst the 'strong and stable' thing is certainly floundering it definitely plays into the general desire for a strong leader who will fight all these perceived (real and imaginary) battles. It's always been Corbyn's electoral weakness and it will be why, imo, many people will grudgingly vote for May. A massive shame but there we are.

She's rapidly pissing away the strong and stable rep as we speak though. Unlikely to be enough, but...

 

[danny la rouge]

Sorry to keep coming back posting tweets. But what's significant about some of these is not so much what they're saying but who is doing the saying.

 

[Idris2002]

View attachment 108267

Sorry to keep coming back posting tweets. But what's significant about some of these is not so much what they're saying but who is doing the saying.

And who is. . . this?

Just who is the five o'clock hero, danny?

 

[The Boy]

And who is. . . this?

Just who is the five o'clock hero, danny?

Mike smithson. Political gambler, avid dislike of corbyn.

 

[danny la rouge]

And who is. . . this?

Just who is the five o'clock hero, danny?

Founder of Political Betting website and a notorious Lib Dem.

TSE is also from Political Betting and is a Tory fan.

 

[Kaka Tim]

These satisfaction ratings are important IMO: the lines the Tory campaign is built around actually begin to work against them the less satisfied people are with May's performance. Marvelous stuff.

yes - this is probably more telling than the polls. corbyn was waaaay behind in satisfaction/disatifaction ratings and on "who would be best pm?" - as the campaign has gone on he has made up a lot of ground - he is still behind on both counts but - he has the momentum.
The more exposure may and corbyn get - the more it helps corbyn.

Britain Elects? @britainelects ·

Who would make the most capable Prime Minister:

T. May: 50% (-11)
J. Corbyn: 35% (+12)

(via @IpsosMori)

for the tories - polling day cant come quick enough.

 

[frogwoman]

I never usually vote because reformism and that but i'm voting labour this time because there's a chance some of the policies have a potential to benefit me especially the ones about renting and low wages. i'll take that tbh. plus I am relishing the chance to give the tories a good kicking. I don't even like corbyn really.

 

[Teaboy]

I wouldn't rule out a certain level of protectionism and attempts to lever out some of that money we will no longer be contributing- theres already been talk of a divorce payment iirc

There will be a divorce settlement, a big one as well. If you make assurances you will be contributing a certain amount over a period of years you can't just turn around and say actually, no.

 

[Lord Camomile]

I am relishing the chance to give the tories a good kicking.

This is never as much of a motivating force as I'd like it to be, but fingers crossed it has a good showing this time round.

 

[frogwoman]

if he got in we'd all go back to hating him in a few months. but tbh i just want to get the tories out.

 

[danny la rouge]

yes - this is probably more telling than the polls. corbyn was waaaay behind in satisfaction/disatifaction ratings and on "who would be best pm?" - as the campaign has gone on he has made up a lot of ground - he is still behind on both counts but - he has the momentum.
The more exposure may and corbyn get - the more it helps corbyn.

Britain Elects? @britainelects ·

Who would make the most capable Prime Minister:

T. May: 50% (-11)
J. Corbyn: 35% (+12)

(via @IpsosMori)

for the tories - polling day cant come quick enough.

Yup, it has to be remembered that all the pollsters (save YouGov) are still predicting a comfortable Tory majority. (They're all assuming that the people Corbyn has enthused, primarily young people, won't turn out on the day. Even those who, but for the weighting-for-voting-likelihood, would have Corbyn ahead).

However, May is not doing well. She called an unnecessary election (people don't like that), after saying she wouldn't (people don't like that), she u-turned on her manifesto within days, she won't speak to people, won't do debates, repeats stock phrases without regard to the relevance to the question, and has virtually gone into hiding. The "weak and wobbly" jibe seems to be starting to hit home. And now the election expenses row has reared up again, and with links to CCHQ (Marion Little). She has to be hoping nothing else will go wrong before next Thursday. However, I just don't think Corbyn has enough time before then to reap the benefits.

 

[frogwoman]

yeah, I reckon may will still win, but it wont be the landslide she is predicting. she called this election so can get an increased mandate for the brexit negotiations, even if she got the same number of seats it would be a failure.

limping on in a minority govt would be interesting though

 

[chilango]

yeah, I reckon may will still win, but it wont be the landslide she is predicting. she called this election so can get an increased mandate for the brexit negotiations, even if she got the same number of seats it would be a failure.

limping on in a minority govt would be interesting though

The Tories might well win. May won't. She's already lost.

 

[frogwoman]

The Tories might well win. May won't. She's already lost.

yeah, brexit and the forthcoming negotiations will be a poisoned chalice for sure.

 

[DotCommunist]

one of the best things about corbyn getting in as lab leader the first time was the tears of the labour right. By the time leadership challenges came along they had enough game face on to keep it stony and clap. But the first win, that was sweet. If he by some miracle actually got in it would be ten times better.

 

[Wilf]

Today's bucket of cold water: not so much in the detail, but the feel of what's happening and the arc of events, this feels a bit like the (Scottish) indyref. Seemingly natural remain majority which eroded over time; the remain campaign was dreadful; indie campaign was energising and optimistic; young voters get involved; ultimately a single poll (iirc) shows indie majority (we haven't yet had a Labour lead, but it wouldn't surprise me if some dodgy poll or other shows one in the next couple of days). Result: 10 point gap. Sorry.

p.s. if you have any other dreams, personal, political or professional, I'm happy to bring out the wet blanket of doom. In fact its my superpower.

 

[brogdale]

one of the best things about corbyn getting in as lab leader the first time was the tears of the labour right. By the time leadership challenges came along they had enough game face on to keep it stony and clap. But the first win, that was sweet. If he by some miracle actually got in it would be ten times better.

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