Political polling

[frogwoman]

Today's bucket of cold water: not so much in the detail, but the feel of what's happening and the arc of events, this feels a bit like the (Scottish) indyref. Seemingly natural remain majority which eroded over time; the remain campaign was dreadful; indie campaign was energising and optimistic; young voters get involved; ultimately a single poll (iirc) shows indie majority (we haven't yet had a Labour lead, but it wouldn't surprise me if some dodgy poll or other shows one in the next couple of days). Result: 10 point gap. Sorry.

p.s. if you have any other dreams, personal, political or professional, I'm happy to bring out the wet blanket of doom. In fact its my superpower.

 

[brogdale]

 

[frogwoman]

but even a slightly increased majority is shit for her. she was expecting a landslide.

 

[brogdale]

but even a slightly increased majority is shit for her. she was expecting a landslide.

indeed

 

[frogwoman]

a majority of 20 isn't exactly 'strong and stable'.

 

[Teaboy]

Yeah she's fucked either way. Unless the mega shitstorm the papers are going to throw at Corbyn next week hits home she's fatally wounded.

 

[Wilf]

Given what this was nominally supposed to be about - getting a big enough majority to blow lib/lab interventions on brexit out of the water/give her a stronger hand in the negotiations - anything other than a majority of say 40 is shocking. Anything less than that and it was an expensive (£50m to stage a gen election?) waste of time and loss of focus when she should have been doing brexit'. The eurobods must be laughing themselves into incontinence. 'Oh, hi Theresa, you're back.... election?.... oh, how did that go?.... ah, I'm sorry.... RIGHT, LET'S GET TO IT'

 

[killer b]

Yeah she's fucked either way. Unless the mega shitstorm the papers are going to throw at Corbyn next week hits home she's fatally wounded.

what have they got left?

 

[killer b]

 

[Teaboy]

what have they got left?

Its going to go into overdrive. Nothing specific I expect just a ramping up on all counts now its getting close. The IRA stuff hasn't really hit home so they'll just go back to the tried and tested labour will wreck the economy, jobs and livelihood etc. Its going to be Project Fear on steroids I reckon.

 

[chilango]

The Tory lead has been growing all this time?

 

[frogwoman]

Given what this was nominally supposed to be about - getting a big enough majority to blow lib/lab interventions on brexit out of the water/give her a stronger hand in the negotiations - anything other than a majority of say 40 is shocking. Anything less than that and it was an expensive (£50m to stage a gen election?) waste of time and loss of focus when she should have been doing brexit'. The eurobods must be laughing themselves into incontinence. 'Oh, hi Theresa, you're back.... election?.... oh, how did that go?.... ah, I'm sorry.... RIGHT, LET'S GET TO IT'

the excuses for not going on tv as well lol. 'im too busy working on brexit whereas jeremy corbyn just wants to be on tv all the time' - then why did you call the election then?!

 

[frogwoman]

Its going to go into overdrive. Nothing specific I expect just a ramping up on all counts now its getting close. The IRA stuff hasn't really hit home so they'll just go back to the tried and tested labour will wreck the economy, jobs and livelihood etc. Its going to be Project Fear on steroids I reckon.

it will be the trump effect. this will massively backfire. I still think the tories will win but even their current majority is shit for them and I don't think they will keep that. Finchley is Margaret thatcher's old seat and it looks like Labour will take that

 

[Lord Camomile]

Back me despite Corbyn as May will win, Labour candidate urges voters

“The polls are all saying that the Conservative party will win a large majority, possibly with more MPs than they have ever had before."

What polls is she reading

 

[killer b]

they sent it to the printers a month ago.

 

[Lord Camomile]

they sent it to the printers a month ago.

I figured as much, but felt like there's been more up to date leaflets coming out. I guess they decided they might as well send 'em out anyway

 

[Wilf]

Bottom line is if the tories get over 40%, unless Labour are very close, they get a significant majority - fptp.

 

[frogwoman]

is there a poll breakdown by each seat?

 

[killer b]

also this (from here)

 

[killer b]

is there a poll breakdown by each seat?

The samples are never big enough for it to be meaningful. Ashcroft did some polling in marginals last time, but I don't think he's bothered this time round.

 

[JimW]

May's dissatisfied hits 50% for the first time and she's negative as 'good prime minister'

 

[danny la rouge]

I figured as much, but felt like there's been more up to date leaflets coming out. I guess they decided they might as well send 'em out anyway

Why not pulp them?

I hope Jezza wins, so people like that can choke on it.

 

[agricola]

one of the best things about corbyn getting in as lab leader the first time was the tears of the labour right. By the time leadership challenges came along they had enough game face on to keep it stony and clap. But the first win, that was sweet. If he by some miracle actually got in it would be ten times better.

Indeed. The best thing about it is it will all be down to him, they haven't raised their heads above the parapet once*.

* though of course if he does win, you can expect to hear that it was actually their doing, because they didn't put his picture on their leaflets

 

[Bernie Gunther]

what have they got left?

Posh sociopath Boris, Pauline from Royston Vasey and a bunch of ideological hard right headcases waiting in the wings.

 

[Rimbaud]

* though of course if he does win, you can expect to hear that it was actually their doing, because they didn't put his picture on their leaflets

They'll probably try and use that line of argument but they would just be laughed at to be fair. It would take serious cognitive dissonance for that to be given credence by anyone.

Best thing about the election really, even if May wins we can still take solace in the demise of Blairism.

 

[killer b]

Ben Goldacre's view was widely shared among the blairites a few weeks ago - just rub their faces in this.

 

[killer b]

ashcroft's latest model has drastically reined in his expectations on tory gains too

 

[butchersapron]

Nobody else.

 

[JimW]

Depends who votes does it? Cheers m'lord.

 

[Barking_Mad]

Its going to go into overdrive. Nothing specific I expect just a ramping up on all counts now its getting close. The IRA stuff hasn't really hit home so they'll just go back to the tried and tested labour will wreck the economy, jobs and livelihood etc. Its going to be Project Fear on steroids I reckon.

Most people voting Corbyn are either not bothered by this, or they are simply too young to remember/care. Turn-out of previous non-voters and young people will decide how close, or not this is. My head is still going for a much reduced Tory win and Im refusing to listen to my heart for fear of crushing disappointment.

Edit: Under no illusions about Corbyn enacting some sort of socialist paradise, just think we need a change of direction and at worst to get these ideas in the mainstream.