Political polling

[Vintage Paw]

That's both a genuine and equally predictable line. But I just hope that however Corbyn manages to push this election he keeps his principles in tact. I don't actually agree with a good few of his principles or his overall belief in the British state, but most of all I hope he resists temptation. There's actually scope for a bit of Corbynising at the moment - and that might be behind the 5% gap, a sense that his quieter clichés are better than May's squawkish clichés. But then thinking about how any 'message' plays out for votes is a bit yuky.

Well apparently his speech tomorrow will be focusing on how British foreign policy has gotten us into this mess in the first place. I don't disagree, and it needs stating. I'm a little nervous about what tone it'll take, it's one hell of a decisive subject, but he might as well go for broke now.

 

[Wilf]

Anyway, expect plenty 'is this the actual beret Jeremy Corbyn used to wear when he was IRA Quartermaster...'. articles.

 

[Vintage Paw]

If IRA stuff is all they've got now I don't think there's that much of a reason to worry - it's been dragged out time and time again.

I'm still 90% certain someone in CCHQ and/or Progress/Watson is keeping something back for next week. They went too early with the IRA stuff, imo.

 

[Wilf]

Been a weird campaign really. It was planned to be a May's image superimposed on top of Churchill, Thatcher and some unknown resolute anti-Eu negotiator. Turned out May was hopeless and wooden when finally put in front of the voters - who'd have known it! Then Corbyn, just doing Corbyn, backed up by only a tiny bit of the parliamentary party, well, what, I don't know - not really doing anything different, but creeping up in the polls for no apparent reason. Feel a bit tacky extending that into 'post bomb polls', but yes, one unexpected post bomb poll. Well... still 5 % behind.

 

[Vintage Paw]

Considering most of his people were probably preparing to triangulate the heck out of losing 50 odd seats, 5 points in it seems like a remarkable feat in itself. It's not a winning number, but denying May a landslide considering the sheer weight of so much crap against Corbyn and Labour more widely (the anti-Corbyn shit in the LP, the press, the general mood, Overton Window-shifting stuff over the years, etc) - that in itself has got to be seen as an achievement by his team I'd reckon.

Was it someone on here or elsewhere who said that a near defeat for Labour is probably the worst the Labour right/moderates could hope for?

A full on landslide for May and it's proof Corbyn is terrible and moving to the left is wrong. A narrow win and it gives those MPs some leverage as Corbyn wants to keep them onside to maintain a slim majority. But a near loss gives them little traction in either direction and proves that he can give a damn good fight and be damn popular despite all the shit that has been flung.

I'm not certain it's quite so cut and dried as all that, but I can see the logic of the argument.

 

[Kaka Tim]

You have to salute Corbyn - the amount of shit and backstabbing and derision he has had to take - and he has just continued exactly as before. And the reason he has endured it all - and refused to resign after the PLP vote of no confidence was not arrogance or ego or meglo-mania - but because he sees it as his role to fight for socialist values within the labour party - and to go would have been a betrayal.
Most people would have said "fuck this" and walked. But he has stuck it and - lo and behold - here we are and he is on course to give labour its highest vote in over 15 years on a genuinely left of centre manifesto, possibly even reducing - maybe even eliminating - the tory majority in an election that was supposed to crush the labour party and give the tories a 150 seat majority.
Amazing.
I have been repeatedly exasperated by some of his - and his team's - bouts of clod hopping rubishness - but fuck it jezza - just keep doing what your doing you fucking beauty.

 

[free spirit]

Considering most of his people were probably preparing to triangulate the heck out of losing 50 odd seats, 5 points in it seems like a remarkable feat in itself. It's not a winning number, but denying May a landslide considering the sheer weight of so much crap against Corbyn and Labour more widely (the anti-Corbyn shit in the LP, the press, the general mood, Overton Window-shifting stuff over the years, etc) - that in itself has got to be seen as an achievement by his team I'd reckon.

Was it someone on here or elsewhere who said that a near defeat for Labour is probably the worst the Labour right/moderates could hope for?

A full on landslide for May and it's proof Corbyn is terrible and moving to the left is wrong. A narrow win and it gives those MPs some leverage as Corbyn wants to keep them onside to maintain a slim majority. But a near loss gives them little traction in either direction and proves that he can give a damn good fight and be damn popular despite all the shit that has been flung.

I'm not certain it's quite so cut and dried as all that, but I can see the logic of the argument.

the worst result for them would be a Corbyn victory of any ilk, as that would completely destroy the argument they've used for the last 3 decades about the need to move Labour to accept the neoliberal consensus to win elections. It would have gone, and they couldn't use it again for at least a generation.

In a narrow corbyn victory they'd have been shown to have been completely wrong about him and his strategy, and Corbyn could mostly rely on support from SNP, Plaid, Greens to push through most issues that the right wingers might rebel on.

A minority Labour government that needs some level of support from those parties on every bill would be more problematic for him, and would still give the right wingers something to cling on to in terms of his electability.

 

[Raheem]

You have to salute Corbyn - the amount of shit and backstabbing and derision he has had to take - and he has just continued exactly as before. And the reason he has endured it all - and refused to resign after the PLP vote of no confidence was not arrogance or ego or meglo-mania - but because he sees it as his role to fight for socialist values within the labour party - and to go would have been a betrayal.
Most people would have said "fuck this" and walked. But he has stuck it and - lo and behold - here we are and he is on course to give labour its highest vote in over 15 years on a genuinely left of centre manifesto, possibly even reducing - maybe even eliminating - the tory majority in an election that was supposed to crush the labour party and give the tories a 150 seat majority.
Amazing.
I have been repeatedly exasperated by some of his - and his team's - bouts of clod hopping rubishness - but fuck it jezza - just keep doing what your doing you fucking beauty.

With you, but don't cheer too loudly before the fat Dimbleby sings.

 

[Vintage Paw]

According to Sky:

Jeremy Corbyn will say Government's responsibility is to "ensure foreign policy reduces rather than increases the threat to this country"

That's a good line.

I'm curious to see how the polls look at the end of this week.

 

[Riklet]

Labour must be gearing up to use sthing about May as home secretary before her and failure to effectively deal with people like the Manchester bomber, despite mass surveillance.

Maybe next week.

 

[free spirit]

You have to salute Corbyn - the amount of shit and backstabbing and derision he has had to take - and he has just continued exactly as before. And the reason he has endured it all - and refused to resign after the PLP vote of no confidence was not arrogance or ego or meglo-mania - but because he sees it as his role to fight for socialist values within the labour party - and to go would have been a betrayal.
Most people would have said "fuck this" and walked. But he has stuck it and - lo and behold - here we are and he is on course to give labour its highest vote in over 15 years on a genuinely left of centre manifesto, possibly even reducing - maybe even eliminating - the tory majority in an election that was supposed to crush the labour party and give the tories a 150 seat majority.
Amazing.
I have been repeatedly exasperated by some of his - and his team's - bouts of clod hopping rubishness - but fuck it jezza - just keep doing what your doing you fucking beauty.

It's a very odd election, i'm finding it far easier to round up volunteers from the Green Party to come and distribute a leaflet in parts of the pudsey constituency where we've stood down in favour of Labour, than I am for either the Green Party candidate in our constituency or the regional target constituency.

Took some doing to get permission to do this leaflet against some firmly dug in heels, but the vast majority of GP members locally are more rooting for a Corbyn victory than they are for any potential Green gains.

Compared to the last election when we were all very happy to fight a tory light labour party from the left and had members joining us in droves.

 

[JTG]

For them that can't load up embedded tweets:

CON: 42% (-5)
LAB: 34% (+5)
LDEM: 9% (+1)
UKIP: 4% (-2)
GRN: 4% (-)
(via @TNS_UK / 18 - 22 May)

All before Manchester

Britain Elects originally tweeted that with Tories at 32%. Hilarity ensued

Incidentally, UK Polling Report notes that TNS use a turnout model of weighting that relies heavily on age - so if the under 25s ARE intending to vote more heavily than usual then their polls probably overestimate the Tory lead

 

[chilango]

CON: 43% (-1)
LAB: 38% (+3)
LDEM: 10% (+1)
UKIP: 4% (+1)

(via @YouGov / 24 - 25 May)

Bloody hellfire!

How big's the sample? I switched from "possible Green" to "probable Labour" in my YouGov polling...I'm probably a chunk of that +3%

 

[Bingo]

I'll come and leaflet in Pudsey for you!

 

[bemused]

How big's the sample? I switched from "possible Green" to "probable Labour" in my YouGov polling...I'm probably a chunk of that +3%

2052.

 

[Teaboy]

I'm not sure what to think of these polls, after recent experience I have lost a lot of faith in the accuracy of polling. That being said the tories must be shitting it now and its hilarious. You can already hear them sharpening their knives for May, an election called so she could have a stronger influence over her party could yet weaken her.

Its been an astonishingly crap campaign so far, the dementia tax, weak and wobbly - what on earth are they paying Crosby for and how much? Still if they didn't learn the lessons of Goldsmith's terrible mayoral campaign then they've only got themselves to blame.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Yeah the main thing to do with these polls is just to sit and enjoy the thought of Theresa May contemplating her place history as the PM who engineered her own downfall after less than a year in power.

 

[Dogsauce]

All corbyn needs to do is the big stadium show on election eve...

 

[chilango]

All corbyn needs to do is the big stadium show on election eve...

 

[bemused]

I'm not sure what to think of these polls, after recent experience I have lost a lot of faith in the accuracy of polling. That being said the tories must be shitting it now and its hilarious. You can already hear them sharpening their knives for May, an election called so she could have a stronger influence over her party could yet weaken her.

Its been an astonishingly crap campaign so far, the dementia tax, weak and wobbly - what on earth are they paying Crosby for and how much? Still if they didn't learn the lessons of Goldsmith's terrible mayoral campaign then they've only got themselves to blame.

They deserve a kick up the arse.

May has obviously decided she's getting lots of seats so thought it worth being 'radical'.

Why on Earth is she talking about fox hunting? I've never met anyone who cares about it.

She had a good thing going with the competent middle manager image. Personally, I don't want anyone being radical for the next few years I want some boring Sir Humphry type who can get us through Brexit without leaving everyone jobless.

 

[newbie]

I'm not sure what to think of these polls, after recent experience I have lost a lot of faith in the accuracy of polling.

I find that very hard to believe

That being said the tories must be shitting it now and its hilarious.

when I got phoned by Populus yesterday I was rather taken aback, I've never been asked before, so had to make a hasty decision on what to say. I went with "Labour" as the answer to almost everything, just to feed that hilarity (though baulked at the local candidate question and might have used the word 'twat'). Afterwards I wondered if I should have said "May" everywhere, just to feed their complacency. What the polls say now has little meaning and might just impel shy tories out to vote.

 

[danny la rouge]

According to Sky:

Jeremy Corbyn will say Government's responsibility is to "ensure foreign policy reduces rather than increases the threat to this country"

That's a good line.

I'm curious to see how the polls look at the end of this week.

It is a good line. But I heard Radio 4 briefly this morning and a presenter was pressing a reporter to say it was "inappropriate" (not wrong, not unjustified, but inappropriate), which they eventually agreed to say it was.

It was quite an remarkable piece of broadcasting and reminded me why I stick to Radio 3 these days.

 

[Teaboy]

Why on Earth is she talking about fox hunting? I've never met anyone who cares about it.

Yeah the only people who will support that are tribalist tories living in true blue constituencies. I doubt she even believes in it herself it was just something she can throw in for the faithful, get them onside. Its a bit like the stupid and unachievable immigration targets, just thrown in to appease the more wingnut side of the party. I read these things as they are about to get shafted on the Brexit negotiations so they've been thrown a sop.

 

[chilango]

I find that very hard to believe

when I got phoned by Populus yesterday I was rather taken aback, I've never been asked before, so had to make a hasty decision on what to say. I went with "Labour" as the answer to almost everything, just to feed that hilarity (though baulked at the local candidate question and might have used the word 'twat'). Afterwards I wondered if I should have said "May" everywhere, just to feed their complacency. What the polls say now has little meaning and might just impel shy tories out to vote.

Dunno, it's tricky.

• I want the Tory vote to remain smug and complacent
• I want the Tories themselves to panic and and fuck up in response
• I want the non-tories to see that actually, y'know what?, Labour could win this
• I want Corbyn to remain the plucky underdog
• I want a Labour win to remain a shock that appeals to those of us looking to cause a shock

Not sure what polling could best fulfill all of that.

 

[danny la rouge]

Yeah the only people who will support that are tribalist tories living in true blue constituencies. I doubt she even believes in it herself it was just something she can throw in for the faithful, get them onside. Its a bit like the stupid and unachievable immigration targets, just thrown in to appease the more wingnut side of the party. I read these things as they are about to get shafted on the Brexit negotiations so they've been thrown a sop.

Kill elephants! If God hadn't wanted us to hunt elephants he wouldn't have put a precious commodity on their faces.

I'm not sure there was much planning in it. They thought they could say anything and still win.

 

[danny la rouge]

(They will, incidentally, still win. The UKIP vote is all going to the Tories and the Lib Dems are still nowhere).

 

[Dogsauce]

Why on Earth is she talking about fox hunting? I've never met anyone who cares about it.

I know plenty that give a fuck about it, but not in a way that will help May.

We already had a vote on fox hunting with dogs last decade and it was decided to ban it. I thought it had been decided that you can't just keep voting on stuff until you get the result you want?

 

[bemused]

I thought it had been decided that you can't just keep voting on stuff until you get the result you want?

That is how politics works.

 

[hot air baboon]

Yeah the only people who will support that are tribalist tories living in true blue constituencies.

I think its a broader town vs country constituency than that it will play to - I don't think foxes are hugely popular in farming communities

 

[Teaboy]

I think its a broader town vs country constituency than that it will play to - I don't think foxes are hugely popular in farming communities

They're not very popular with me either at the moment, little fuckers have worked out how to unlock and get into the small green organic waste recycling bins. I'm not yet, however, tempted to dress up in red velvet and smear blood down my 12 year old daughter's face.

I just can't see this winning any new votes.