Political polling

[chilango]

They're not very popular with me either at the moment, little fuckers have worked out how to unlock and get into the small green organic waste recycling bins. I'm not yet, however, tempted to dress up in red velvet and smear blood down my 12 year old daughter's face.

I just can't see this winning any new votes.

I don;t think its about winning new votes. If anything stands out about the Tory campaign its that it really doesn't seem to be aiming at that. It's taken it for granted that that they'll pile on the votes 'cos y'know? Corbyn and UKIP and that.

It's a display of power. We've won. You can't touch us. Type of thing.

 

[newbie]

Dunno, it's tricky.

• I want the Tory vote to remain smug and complacent
• I want the Tories themselves to panic and and fuck up in response
• I want the non-tories to see that actually, y'know what?, Labour could win this
• I want Corbyn to remain the plucky underdog
• I want a Labour win to remain a shock that appeals to those of us looking to cause a shock

Not sure what polling could best fulfill all of that.

well I'd certainly prefer not to live under another Conservative government, that's for sure. My suspicion is that this is peaking too soon, just as Cleggmania did at almost the same point in 2010

 

[kabbes]

(They will, incidentally, still win. The UKIP vote is all going to the Tories and the Lib Dems are still nowhere).

That cross-break is quite incredible reading though. Labour now the most popular party for the under-50s, let alone the under-40s of previous polling. And as many 2015 Tories are now going Labour as vice versa, which we had been asked to believe would be an impossibility under Corbyn.

It's the UKIP move to the Tories remains the killer breakout at the moment, no doubt. But the change in all other trends in recent weeks is remarkable.

I think it justifies what a lot of us have been saying about Corbyn -- who can say that a man who already won two elections is unelectable? Let's see what happens in reality instead of all this theorycrafting.

 

[chilango]

well I'd certainly prefer not to live under another Conservative government, that's for sure. My suspicion is that this is peaking too soon, just as Cleggmania did at almost the same point in 2010
View attachment 107747

That yellow line disgusts me.

 

[kabbes]

well I'd certainly prefer not to live under another Conservative government, that's for sure. My suspicion is that this is peaking too soon, just as Cleggmania did at almost the same point in 2010
View attachment 107747

But for Labour to win, it needs to have not yet peaked. That should be the goal.

 

[newbie]

But for Labour to win, it needs to have not yet peaked. That should be the goal.

quite so, which is why I'm slightly concerned that using my starring performance in an opinion poll to boost the LP might have been wrongly pitched.

 

[chilango]

Just got YouGov'd again Moved to an "almost certain" Labour vote.

 

[JimW]

Just got YouGov'd again Moved to an "almost certain" Labour vote.

I've finally met one of they fabled floating voters

 

[chilango]

I've finally met one of they fabled floating voters

Carefully constructed to squeeze as many pennies as possible out of YouGov.

 

[chilango]

Carefully constructed to squeeze as many pennies as possible out of YouGov.

I've gone 2015: Might or not vote, don't know who for > possible Green > probable Green > actually voted Green > 2016: Possible Green > Might or might not vote > slight chance of Green > 2017: possible Green > slight chance of Green, might not vote > possible Labour > almost certain Labour.

Kerching!

 

[newbie]

Carefully constructed to squeeze as many pennies as possible out of YouGov.

you get paid for fake views?

 

[chilango]

you get paid for fake views?

I prefer to describe them as "curated".

 

[SpookyFrank]

Why on Earth is she talking about fox hunting? I've never met anyone who cares about it.

Even in rural areas most people hate hunting and hunters. It's not a vote winner at all. Theresa May doesn't know that though, because she wouldn't know public opinion if you smacked her in the shins with it. Which in itself is not unusual, but she seems to have nobody working for her who can come up with anything remotely popular either.

And I bet whoever is doing her PR/communications is being paid stupid money. To make a less charming Thatcher look like, well, a less charming Thatcher.

 

[BigTom]

I've gone 2015: Might or not vote, don't know who for > possible Green > probable Green > actually voted Green > 2016: Possible Green > Might or might not vote > slight chance of Green > 2017: possible Green > slight chance of Green, might not vote > possible Labour > almost certain Labour.

Kerching!

lol, looks familiar I'm currently telling yougov I will definitely vote but don't know who for. Previously (as in over the last 5 years) I've said probably vote, probably green but didn't actually vote in 2010/2015, now definite vote and probably labour. I'm hoping for lots of polls over the next two weeks.

 

[DotCommunist]

All corbyn needs to do is the big stadium show on election eve...

now I'm imagining him cycling around london 'getting the band back together' in one of those pathe brit films funded with film4 money

 

[chilango]

lol, looks familiar I'm currently telling yougov I will definitely vote but don't know who for. Previously (as in over the last 5 years) I've said probably vote, probably green but didn't actually vote in 2010/2015, now definite vote and probably labour. I'm hoping for lots of polls over the next two weeks.

 

[The Pale King]

now I'm imagining him cycling around london 'getting the band back together' in one of those pathe brit films funded with film4 money

Played by Bill Nighy presumably

 

[DotCommunist]

Played by Bill Nighy presumably

we'll get Robbie Coltrane in for Tom Watson

 

[The Pale King]

we'll get Robbie Coltrane in for Tom Watson

Ken Stott if he's unavailable

 

[alsoknownas]

I had a dream about one of those the other day, but it was full of baked beans. There were kids with their hands out trying to scoop up the scraps. Sure there's a political metaphor in there somewhere.

 

[Fez909]

Ashcroft's polling suggest Tory majority of 142 is possible (even after the dementia tax fallout)

http://www.conservativehome.com/pla...a-potential-conservative-majority-of-142.html

 

[bi0boy]

Nick Clegg’s bounce changes everything

 

[Bingo]

I dunno about that. I was expecting the polls to start to go back in May's direction again after the Manchester bomb, but the opposite is happening...

 

[redsquirrel]

Ashcroft's polling suggest Tory majority of 142 is possible (even after the dementia tax fallout)

http://www.conservativehome.com/pla...a-potential-conservative-majority-of-142.html

Piece in the Guardian arguing that there could be a even bigger Troy majority (though pleasingly also that Farron might lose his seat). It's a little handwavium TBH, but the general thrust, that the increase is the Labour vote may be in seats that aren't really in play isn't totally daft.

 

[JTG]

Piece in the Guardian arguing that there could be a even bigger Troy majority (though pleasingly also that Farron might lose his seat). It's a little handwavium TBH, but the general thrust, that the increase is the Labour vote may be in seats that aren't really in play isn't totally daft.

This assumption that the UKIP vote is transferring wholesale to the Tories - I'm not buying. I reckon around 15-20% is going Labour, some is gonna stay home.
Overall that article seems very keen to believe what it's saying. I don't think things are nearly that bad for Labour right now

 

[Fez909]

Piece in the Guardian arguing that there could be a even bigger Troy majority (though pleasingly also that Farron might lose his seat). It's a little handwavium TBH, but the general thrust, that the increase is the Labour vote may be in seats that aren't really in play isn't totally daft.

Isn't it as likely that the Labour gains are in Tory stongholds? The evidence for the Guardian theory is flimsy, I reckon.

I don't think any of the polling data is good enough to show either way.

 

[redsquirrel]

This assumption that the UKIP vote is transferring wholesale to the Tories - I'm not buying. I reckon around 15-20% is going Labour, some is gonna stay home.
Overall that article seems very keen to believe what it's saying. I don't think things are nearly that bad for Labour right now

Oh I agree, I don't believe a 200+ majority is on cards (unless Labour do something mental in the next 10 days). I mean for a start if you go with that chart then you're predicting the UKIP vote will be higher in London than the rest of the country, which is clearly batshit. The relative errors for Lab/Con will be less but they will still be very significant, and while they are attempting to account for regional effects they are total neglecting constituency effects.

But even with all those qualifications I think the underlying point - the the increase in the share of the vote needs to be in the 'correct' seats is true. If this increase in Labour's vote is from former voters in safe seats coming back to them, or young people energised by Corbyn in safe Tory seats (not bizarre hypotheses) then that doesn't really help them in terms of seats.

 

[redsquirrel]

Isn't it as likely that the Labour gains are in Tory stongholds? The evidence for the Guardian theory is flimsy, I reckon.

That's what that piece is saying, that Labour will (or could) do better in the SE and SW than their national share but that they are starting from such a low base in those places it will mean fuck all. While a below average performance in places like the Midlands could hurt them badly.

 

[Dogsauce]

If polls have shifted significantly it could be problematic for the Tory campaign. Although they have much more money they have less people on the streets (due to most people not being assholes) so tend to be very targeted in their campaigning, they might be fighting the wrong battles now. Labour seems to have more boots on the ground, so are getting better coverage, so for them it might be less of a problem if different constituencies are now in play.

 

[squirrelp]

I think this could be a monumental upset. A possible Labour landslide.