Political polling

[mikey mikey]

There had been a load of polls for the Sunday papers, the day before?

link?

 

[killer b]

link?

a few of them are listed on this useful thread.

 

[brogdale]

a few of them are listed on this useful thread.

 

[brogdale]

Back on stream...

 

[JTG]

Back on stream...

View attachment 107714

For them that can't load up embedded tweets:

CON: 42% (-5)
LAB: 34% (+5)
LDEM: 9% (+1)
UKIP: 4% (-2)
GRN: 4% (-)
(via @TNS_UK / 18 - 22 May)

All before Manchester

Britain Elects originally tweeted that with Tories at 32%. Hilarity ensued

 

[JTG]

CON: 43% (-1)
LAB: 38% (+3)
LDEM: 10% (+1)
UKIP: 4% (+1)

(via @YouGov / 24 - 25 May)

Bloody hellfire!

 

[killer b]

fucking hell.

 

[JTG]

fucking hell.

Closer than the margin Miliband lost by two years ago

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

How is that likely to translate into seats?

 

[JimW]

Just googled to see if this was available:

It'll just make the late swing to the scum even more painful having been resigned

 

[killer b]

worth reading their analysis - looks like it was probably even closer on Monday

YouGov | Are the Tories losing ground or regaining it?

 

[redsquirrel]

Those last two are really interesting, previously it looked like most the gain for Labour was from other parties/non-voters, but those two suggest that they could be starting to take votes from the Tories.

 

[brogdale]

How is that likely to translate into seats?

Best to look at the poll of polls means for that sort of thing tbh.

 

[brogdale]

Those last two are really interesting, previously it looked like most the gain for Labour was from other parties/non-voters, but those two suggest that they could be starting to take votes from the Tories.

Losing the ability to pass on estate trumps strong and stable negotiator.

 

[JTG]

How is that likely to translate into seats?

 

[Dogsauce]

Also from yougov:



...which sort of explains how stuff is moving. Dementia tax. Shout it loud.

 

[brogdale]

worth reading their analysis - looks like it was probably even closer on Monday

YouGov | Are the Tories losing ground or regaining it?

Quite a gender gap evident on that poll...

Men: CON 45 LAB 32 Women: CON 40 LAB 43​

 

[JTG]

worth reading their analysis - looks like it was probably even closer on Monday

YouGov | Are the Tories losing ground or regaining it?

Fair
There seems to be a lot of stuff flying around social media about May's cutting of police numbers etc. Remains to be seen whether this gains traction, whether it hits home outside of the lefty bubble etc

 

[redsquirrel]

Also from yougov:

View attachment 107719

...which sort of explains how stuff is moving. Dementia tax. Shout it loud.

Does show that the Tories completely fucked up their manifesto.

 

[Raheem]

How is that likely to translate into seats?

electoralcalculs.co.uk says Tory majority of 28. No idea how reliable that is.

 

[Mr.Bishie]

Does show that the Tories completely fucked up their manifesto.

I'd like to fuckin think so!

 

[JTG]

electoralcalculs.co.uk says Tory majority of 28. No idea how reliable that is.

Depends on where the votes fall. If there's a high youth turnout, will this be concentrated in uni seats? The increased Tory vote - is that in their safe seats or in marginals? Etc etc etc

 

[treelover]

Corbyn is to put the events in Manchester at the heart of a speech tomorrow, and link it in some way to foreign policy, just when the polls are going his way, he just can't help himself.

On Newsnight now,

Guardian is now reporting May is going to push a new Prevent style agenda.

 

[brogdale]

electoralcalculs.co.uk says Tory majority of 28. No idea how reliable that is.

Maybe she'll end up with a majority of 12?

 

[JTG]

Maybe she'll end up with a majority of 12?

Much as any Tory majority is awful news, that would be... a tiny little bit amusing

 

[binka]

Maybe she'll end up with a majority of 12?

Would be fucking hillarious tbf

 

[Raheem]

Depends on where the votes fall. If there's a high youth turnout, will this be concentrated in uni seats? The increased Tory vote - is that in their safe seats or in marginals? Etc etc etc

There's also a calculator on ukpollingreport that says Tories 5 short, but that one doesn't allow you to put in a number for UKIP.

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

Corbyn is to put the events in Manchester at the heart of a speech tomorrow, and link it in some way to foreign policy, just when the polls are going his way, he just can't help himself.

Depends what his analysis is exactly. He's been pretty vocal on our relationship with the Saudis in the past, and the influence they have on the spread of Salafi ideology worldwide. If he drums that one home I reckon it could actually do Labour some good.

 

[JTG]

No idea whether this is accurate but hey ho:

 

[treelover]

Yes, but four days after the bombing, the DM, Sun, etc won't be looking for nuance, Crosby and they will slaughter him, already the Maquis are having a go at him across the media, briefing against him, stick to the domestic agenda JC, we can win then.