Political polling

[JTG]

While that is disappointing compared to the single figure gaps in other polls, it is worth bearing in mind that the ICM polling is the most heavily weighted to account for demographics seen as less likely to vote. I think it is wrong, because a lot of those demographics are much more likely to bother voting this time. Also, this poll was reporting a 20 point lead for the Tories only a week ago, so a reduction to a 14 point lead is still a good sign of the direction of travel.

I don't follow the minutiae of how individual polling orgs weight their samples so will take your word for it of course. Absolutely correct to compare like with like - the narrowing of the lead here reflects that of the other polls from the last few days so we know something is going on.

I suspect the reputation of pollsters will take another knock in this election. Reports from the doorstep seem to say a fair number of trad labour voters are 'undecided'. Which suggests that what happens in the last 2 weeks will be quite key, and pollsters will find it very hard to track what's happening. First time/young voters are also a bit of a wildcard in terms of turnout. I wouldn't pay good money for polls in this election - they're going to be even less reliable than usual.

Tend to agree - doesn't mean that polls aren't useful in determining with very broad brushstrokes the way the electorate is swinging. The margins are decided on turnout and how correct pollsters' assumptions are as you say. It's perhaps best to use them as a guide rather than anything more. Still useful imho

 

[JTG]

There's a loud BOINNNNGGG noise emanating from Wales:

Welsh Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 44% (+9)
CON: 34% (-7)
PC: 9% (-2)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (+1)
(via @YouGov / 18 - 21 May)

And that, assuming it's at all accurate, would be a trad Labour vote returning home. Perhaps more emphatically than in parts of England but...

 

[killer b]

lol I was just coming here to post that. It's all very volatile...

 

[treelover]

The biggest concern is the collapse of UKIP.

In my seat and in my mum's seat, the UKIP vote was larger than the Labour majority, and if added to the Tory vote both could go Tory easily.

It depends how much the UKIP vote crumbles by, and where those voters go. Not all will go Tory. Some will stay at home, some go Indy, some Labour. I can't see many going LibDem lol.

Voters are strange beasts. My father-in-law, mildly racist (though not in polite company - you know the sort), voted UKIP for the last however long they've been popular, but would vote Green because he's an outdoorsy type, cares about conservation, buys into the landed gentry stuff despite being working class. If you asked your average journo or politics wonk if they can imagine a voter who would vote either UKIP or Green depending on which way the wind was blowing they'd laugh in your face. They can't get their head around how people are a tangle of disparate interests that might be seemingly at odds with each other (but that make sense for the person in question).

Bang on, for many(not us on here of course!) voting is a mix of rationality, irrationality, self interest, familial history, etc.

 

[killer b]

here too tbf.

 

[treelover]

Would the student vote have made much more of an impact if they were still at college when the vote happens, instead of largely voting in their home locations, etc?

 

[Raheem]

There's a loud BOINNNNGGG noise emanating from Wales:

Welsh Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 44% (+9)
CON: 34% (-7)
PC: 9% (-2)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (+1)
(via @YouGov / 18 - 21 May)

That's even though the dementia tax thing is an England-only policy.

 

[JTG]

That's even though the dementia tax thing is an England-only policy.

Yeah, it's just a mass moment of clarity where everyone goes "oh yeah, they're TORIES ffs"

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

That's even though the dementia tax thing is an England-only policy.

If Wales is anything like Scotland, I'm not sure the detail of what precisely is devolved is all that widely known.

 

[ItWillNeverWork]

There's a loud BOINNNNGGG noise emanating from Wales:

Welsh Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 44% (+9)
CON: 34% (-7)
PC: 9% (-2)
LDEM: 6% (-1)
UKIP: 5% (+1)
(via @YouGov / 18 - 21 May)

I had to do a double take on that. My first reaction was to just assume the 44% was conservative, which puzzled me as to what the fuss was about. I wonder to what extent that turnaround will dribble over the border into England.

 

[JTG]

I had to do a double take on that. My first reaction was to just assume the 44% was conservative, which puzzled me as to what the fuss was about. I wonder to what extent that turnaround will dribble over the border into England.

According to the Guardian, defending Labour chap in Wrexham says that suddenly all the elderly folk they lost in 2015 were vowing to vote Labour again on the doorstep. Not such a stretch to imagine the same thing being said in England, at least in vulnerable trad Labour seats

 

[gawkrodger]

edit: wrong thread

 

[redsquirrel]

Is that really all that surprising though? Poll after poll has shown Labour have a big lead with younger voters, the issue is whether when it comes to June 8th they cast their votes

 

[free spirit]

Is that really all that surprising though? Poll after poll has shown Labour have a big lead with younger voters, the issue is whether when it comes to June 8th they cast their votes

half a million more under 35s have registered to vote in this period since the election was called than in the same period before the 2015 election, with over 2 million registrations.

This compares with 237,421 registrations of people over 55.

In percentage terms this is a 90% - 10% split, compared to an 83% - 17% split at both the 2015 election and referendum.

And given that virtually all those who registered for the referendum (who're still at the same address) will still be registered, this is a big chunk of extra 18-35s signing up to vote this time around vs 2015.

I get the impression* that turnout in the under 35s and under 25s will be far higher than in 2015, to an level that I think will make the pollsters corrected figures out by a significant margin (I've not calculated how significant, but could easily see it being worth something like a 2% swing maybe a lot more if May manages to put off older voters with her policies).

A spreadsheet that I did when in statto mode last night

 

[Vintage Paw]

Have the pollsters already weighted their methods for the increased registrations this time around or does it happen after the fact? What I mean is, do they regularly re-weight their methods as they get new info about demographics of registrations or do they wait until after an election to see how it played out with demographic info from exit polls and adjust accordingly ready for next time?

 

[killer b]

While half a million more have apparently registered before this election than before the last, couldn't this be just because voter registration has changed since then, meaning more people have to?

 

[newbie]

I thought the anticipation was that moving from household to individual voter registration would weed out a lot of people?

 

[gawkrodger]

when are the first polls coming out post-Manchester attack?

 

[brogdale]

While half a million more have apparently registered before this election than before the last, couldn't this be just because voter registration has changed since then, meaning more people have to?

I'd imagine that a pretty big chuck of that 0.5m might well be those just too young to have qualified for the EU referendum that now need to register individually.

 

[Vintage Paw]

2 million have registered since the election was called - the majority of those (approx 1 million) being the very young, with the numbers dropping off the further up the age ranges you go.

Some of these will of course be those who fell through the cracks from household > individual registration, but that's also not the whole story: those who were registered as part of a household before weren't necessarily going to vote. Those choosing to register as the election was called are more likely to, since it's a personal, positive act of registration rather than just being registered by default.

 

[free spirit]

While half a million more have apparently registered before this election than before the last, couldn't this be just because voter registration has changed since then, meaning more people have to?

the last election was already changing over to this system, though existing registrations at their parents etc would still have counted (and I think still would now).

Possibly more people have got used to the system this time around, but one of the recent polls had something like 25% of under 35s who didn't vote in the EU referendum saying they were 10/10 definitely voting this time (IIRC), so all the signs are that the proportion of young people voting is going to be significantly higher than in the EU referendum, which in turn was already significantly higher than the last election.

 

[free spirit]

2 million have registered since the election was called - the majority of those (approx 1 million) being the very young, with the numbers dropping off the further up the age ranges you go.

Some of these will of course be those who fell through the cracks from household > individual registration, but that's also not the whole story: those who were registered as part of a household before weren't necessarily going to vote. Those choosing to register as the election was called are more likely to, since it's a personal, positive act of registration rather than just being registered by default.

2,938,269 have registered, over 2 million of those are under 35.

All the increase in registration is from the under 35s, the majority from the under 25s, which is the opposite of what happened in the brexit referendum when the 25-34 registrations went up significantly but the under 25s stayed about the same as in 2015. It looks like a significant number of extra under 25s have cottoned on to how this democracy think works since Brexit and are intending to have their say this time around.

All the figures are here

 

[William of Walworth]

when are the first polls coming out post-Manchester attack?

Be careful what you wish for

 

[free spirit]

I'd imagine that a pretty big chuck of that 0.5m might well be those just too young to have qualified for the EU referendum that now need to register individually.

this are over 300k more new registrations in the 18-25 category than in the referendum, but there was actually a month longer from the may 2015 election to the referendum, so the number who'd turned 18 since the last election would have been higher then than it is now. So if anything there should have been an underlying reduction in the number registering for that reason between this time and the Eu referendum.

 

[chilango]

Finally got YouGov'd. First since the election was called.

 

[Wilf]

when are the first polls coming out post-Manchester attack?

Probably Sunday (for fieldwork to have been done over the last couple of days), unless someone has intentionally done a quick phone poll to be the first to see how the land lies, post atrocity (yuk).

 

[Dogsauce]

There seemed to be a gap in polling before the Manchester attack, don't think I've seen anything from after the clusterfuck of the Tory manifesto & climbdown. Has any polling been published taken since/around then? Would they hold back, aware that reporting of it would be crowded out of the news?

 

[killer b]

There had been a load of polls for the Sunday papers, the day before?

 

[Dogsauce]

There had been a load of polls for the Sunday papers, the day before?

Nothing taken on Sunday/Monday that I've seen reported (would they even poll people on a Sunday?), and May's 'team' seemed in complete disarray over the weekend, so wondered if the impact of that had been picked up.

 

[chilango]

No mention of Mcr in the polling I've just done. Brexit, the NHS mostly