My tactical voting dilemma - and yours if you have one

[Elpenor]

So in my constituency it is most likely that the party of the dog killing austerity enablers are the ones who can beat the incumbent vermin, Anne Marie Morris. She had a 17k majority last time, but this is predicted to be a lot closer now due to the events of the last few years, perhaps the margin would be as low as a few hundred votes either way. With that said, I don’t think there’s been much central party activity down here as it’s still probably low on their target list.

The other parties standing are Labour, Green, Reform, some localist anti planning and development independents, Heritage (ukip splinter) and Volt (EU reformist oddjobs). So not a lot of choice for someone on the left.

The Lib Dem candidate is a local councillor who stood in 2019. No idea what he’s like really. I don’t think I can justify blaming him personally for the 2010-2015 coalition.

The Lib Dems run the council, I feel like I am on board with some of the things they’re doing round here eg decarbonising, looking at ways to pedestrianise town centres etc, though that hasn’t been very popular cos people love their cars.

I suppose it boils down to the fact that I know I would feel a lot happier not having a Tory MP for the next few years. I don’t particularly want to vote for the Lib Dems, but suspect that’s what I’ll have to do to get rid of Morris

 

[belboid]

ohh, you live near(ish) Buckfastleigh. The (equal) second longest place name in Britain where none of the letters are repeated.

I realise that doesn't help you.

 

[cupid_stunt]

TBH, I don't see a dilemma there, if the best chance of kicking out a Tory is to vote LD, that's what I would be doing.

 

[cupid_stunt]

There's a 69% chance of Newton Abbot going to the LDs according to electoral calculus.

 

[Elpenor]

There's a 69% chance of Newton Abbot going to the LDs according to electoral calculus.

I’m not sure I particularly trust those sites as far as I can throw them but yeah all but one say Lib Dem, the other bizarrely says Labour

 

[Santino]

My dilemma is a theoretical one, which is whether I would vote Tory in Clacton to keep out Farage.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I’m not sure I particularly trust those sites as far as I can throw them but yeah all but one say Lib Dem, the other bizarrely says Labour

It's not a bad resource, excluding the exit poll, their overall seat prediction in 2019 came in the nearest, beating the two MRP polls.

 

[JimW]

What's the Lib Dem candidates name? Perhaps we can find out what their voting record at the council has been like. I'd vote tactically anyway if Tories out is the main thing, voting Labour is also enabling a party nearly as bad as the Lib Dems and I'd do that with barely any hesitation.

 

[Silas Loom]

My dilemma is a theoretical one, which is whether I would vote Tory in Clacton to keep out Farage.

On current constituency polling (figures above derive from Survation last week), Lab plus LD plus Green outweighs Con, and there is almost no chance of either beating Ref. So in that theoretical situation, the only good choice is to vote for your preferred party and boost national vote share.

Of course, in that theoretical scenario, you’d live in Clacton. Might as well be a fish.

 

[kebabking]

As with most adult stuff, it's not what you'd like - Starmer LP isn't what I'd like - it's what you can and cannot live with.

Think of it as not necessarily final positions, but positions as basis for negotiation - if you think that the LD's/whatever a) are in a position that you might not like, but you can live with (particularly in light of the alternative) and b) you think that given their position, and their broad brush/ direction of travel, you could probably get something better out of them, then go for it.

You've also got the 'win' that if your LD wins, it will be by a very narrow majority - they'll know that that majority is only there because Labour and left of Labour voted for them. So write letters to them, go to constituency events, and you may be surprised buy the impact you have.

And if that doesn't work, they're still not a Tory.

 

[jakethesnake]

This site seems to be pretty good for tactical voting advice: StopTheTories.Vote

 

[Leafster]

I still can't work out what's best in my constituency to remove the climate-wrecking Tory. The pollsters don't have a consistent view on the polling here in East Surrey.


(I've ringed the second place parties)

Only one of the tactical voting sites have a recommendation and that's to vote Labour.

Looking at the district council which more or less matches the parliamentary seat , there are NO labour councillors and there are currently more LibDem councillors than Tories (loads of independents).

East Surrey isn't a battleground seat for Labour although the candidate does seem to be making a little more effort than his predecessors. I haven't met him. I've met the LibDem candidate and she seems nice-enough but her social media output is poorly done and lacks polish (typos, bad photos, ill thought out posts) so I think she may not be coming across well to the electorate.

So, in summary, I haven't a clue, what to do!

 

[pug]

Mines definitely a three dog fight with reform at 25% and the tory and labour at 30 ish, I think reform are seriously underestimated and more likely to win than the polling predicts sadly.

 

[Leafster]

This site seems to be pretty good for tactical voting advice: StopTheTories.Vote

For my constituency, they say vote Labour.... or LibDem

 

[moochedit]

I still can't work out what's best in my constituency to remove the climate-wrecking Tory. The pollsters don't have a consistent view on the polling here in East Surrey.

View attachment 431563
(I've ringed the second place parties)

Only one of the tactical voting sites have a recommendation and that's to vote Labour.

Looking at the district council which more or less matches the parliamentary seat , there are NO labour councillors and there are currently more LibDem councillors than Tories (loads of independents).

East Surrey isn't a battleground seat for Labour although the candidate does seem to be making a little more effort than his predecessors. I haven't met him. I've met the LibDem candidate and she seems nice-enough but her social media output is poorly done and lacks polish (typos, bad photos, ill thought out posts) so I think she may not be coming across well to the electorate.

So, in summary, I haven't a clue, what to do!

If you are not sure then just vote for the one you most want to win and hope that others do the same. You are only responsible for your own vote at the end of day.

 

[Numbers]

"Tories unlikely to win here, you can vote with your heart!"

 

[Elpenor]

For my constituency, they say vote Labour.... or LibDem

Same! The local polling is a bit vague on who has the better chance of winning too

 

[Elpenor]

ohh, you live near(ish) Buckfastleigh. The (equal) second longest place name in Britain where none of the letters are repeated.

I realise that doesn't help you.

Esoteric trivia is always helpful so thanks

 

[Zapp Brannigan]

Same! The local polling is a bit vague on who has the better chance of winning too

FWIW, bookies (oddschecker) are hedging their bets too but have Labour 11/8, Lib Dems 11/4, Tories 13/2.

 

[dessiato]

My dilemma is a theoretical one, which is whether I would vote Tory in Clacton to keep out Farage.

If that's what it takes I'd vote Tory. I'd hate doing it, but I'd hate him more.

 

[chilango]

Hmm. I plan on going to the pub Thursday evening after a day having to "network" at a very posh school (attending the Education Festival at Wellington College).

The pub is fortunately right next door to polling station.

My dilemma is: Do I vote Green before drinking or vote Spunking Cock after drinking?

 

[cupid_stunt]

If that's what it takes I'd vote Tory. I'd hate doing it, but I'd hate him more.

Same here, I would even vote for a bloody seagull if it could beat Farage.

 

[inva]

Important tactical consideration: Lib Dems are scum

 

[klang]

Hmm. I plan on going to the pub Thursday evening after a day having to "network" at a very posh school (attending the Education Festival at Wellington College).

The pub is fortunately right next door to polling station.

My dilemma is: Do I vote Green before drinking or vote Spunking Cock after drinking?

we all know the answer, and so do you.

 

[[62]]

Knowing your area pretty well, I'd say Lib Dem. Both the old Teignbridge and Torbay seats were Lib Dem for long spells in recent history and - rightly or wrongly - they're seen as the natural anti-Tory vote in the parts of the West Country away from the cities and the former Cornish industrial area.

Actually quite liked the old Lib Dem MP for Torbay, Adrian Sanders. Genuine bloke, lifelong Torquay United fan, and he was brilliant when my mum had trouble with her pension, a cause I think it's fair to say that was unlikely to win him any headlines.

 

[iona]

Lib dems are nailed on to win here so my main dilemma is whether go for the traditional spunking cock, write something like none of the above / they're all cunts, or draw a pretty picture.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I still can't work out what's best in my constituency to remove the climate-wrecking Tory. The pollsters don't have a consistent view on the polling here in East Surrey.

View attachment 431563
(I've ringed the second place parties)

Only one of the tactical voting sites have a recommendation and that's to vote Labour.

Looking at the district council which more or less matches the parliamentary seat , there are NO labour councillors and there are currently more LibDem councillors than Tories (loads of independents).

East Surrey isn't a battleground seat for Labour although the candidate does seem to be making a little more effort than his predecessors. I haven't met him. I've met the LibDem candidate and she seems nice-enough but her social media output is poorly done and lacks polish (typos, bad photos, ill thought out posts) so I think she may not be coming across well to the electorate.

So, in summary, I haven't a clue, what to do!

Having grown up near Oxted, I know your patch well, and I admit I am surprised Labour is polling neck and neck with the LDs, perhaps it's the local connection, what with Starmer having grown up in Oxted.

 

[JimW]

inva and iona wouldn't be allowed on the same ballot paper, too confusing.

 

[JimW]

Having grown up near Oxted, I know your patch well, and I admit I am surprised Labour is polling neck and neck with the LDs, perhaps it's the local connection, what with Starmer having grown up in Oxted.

Lot of retired toolmakers?

 

[Elpenor]

Important tactical consideration: Lib Dems are scum

There isn’t a non-scum option!