Urban75 Home About Offline BrixtonBuzz Contact

Many dead in coordinated Paris shootings and explosions

Status
Not open for further replies.
Has it been asked whether the choice of the Russian plane and attacks in Paris could have been made quite deliberately within ISIS, perhaps in order to paper over the split between Russia and the West so they would unite against them? Or at least so that each party would be drawn in against ISIS, whether united or not, rather than Assad or other groups?

It both fits the mentalist end-of-times irrational actor theory that you need to get your head around ISIS, and on a more mundane level expands destabilised domestic conditions across more of the world.
 
purves grundy said:
Has it been asked whether the choice of the Russian plane and attacks in Paris could have been made quite deliberately within ISISl, perhaps in order to paper over the split between Russia and the West so they would unite against them? Or at least so that each party would be drawn in against ISIS, whether united or not, rather than Assad or other groups?

It both fits the mentalist end-of-times irrational actor theory that you need to get your head around ISIS, and on a more mundane level expands destabilised domestic conditions across more of the world.
Click to expand...
yes it could. but i doubt it was.
 
Sasaferrato said:
I fully accept your points.

IS are murdering raping scum, certainly, but they are still human beings. Unfortunately, they are not reasonable human beings.

Do you really see a diplomatic way out of this? Partial capitulation may help, allow IS to hold the territory that they now hold, with a meaningful threat that their will be boots on the ground should they try and enlarge it. There would also need to be agreement to let those people leave their territory that wished to.

If I thought for a moment that the above would work, I would reluctantly endorse it, however, I don't think that that, or any variant thereof, would work.

IS is not going to lay down its arms other than by being confronted with overwhelming force.

Edited to add:

Iran seems to be coming out of the cold at the moment, albeit slowly.
Click to expand...

I didn't mean diplomatic agreement with them, I meant it with everyone else affected by them and those in the region - both to find a solution to these crises and to find a way to resolve future issues that doesn't depend on huge arms sales to dodgy regimes backed up by threats of (and actual) regime change.
 
Re: what purves said...

I think these are the actions of a desperate movement that wants to
A) strike a massive propaganda victory at home to take people's minds off the dire military situation
B) convince any susceptible young men in Tunisia/Pakistan/wherever who were sitting on the fence with regards joining ISIS that it is actually a great idea
 
purves grundy said:
Has it been asked whether the choice of the Russian plane and attacks in Paris could have been made quite deliberately within ISIS, perhaps in order to paper over the split between Russia and the West so they would unite against them? Or at least so that each party would be drawn in against ISIS, whether united or not, rather than Assad or other groups?

It both fits the mentalist end-of-times irrational actor theory that you need to get your head around ISIS, and on a more mundane level expands destabilised domestic conditions across more of the world.
Click to expand...
There was no other attacks on assad. Before or after. Nothing.
 
Flavour said:
Re: what purves said...

I think these are the actions of a desperate movement that wants to
A) strike a massive propaganda victory at home to take people's minds off the dire military situation
B) convince any susceptible young men in Tunisia/Pakistan/wherever who were sitting on the fence with regards joining ISIS that it is actually a great idea
Click to expand...
yeh more bombs will divert people's attention, more air raids will let them savour the kufr laid low
 
perhaps "show of strength to domestic population who may be thinking of open rebellion" would have been a better choice of words
 
Sprocket. said:
Clinical strikes or bombing campaigns cannot guarantee success.
I remember the Arclight campaigns in Vietnam, all they did was make it that even today vast areas of Vietnam and Laos are still unusable.
Click to expand...
relandscaping Belgium would be a improvement
 
butchersapron said:
There was no other attacks on assad. Before or after. Nothing.
Click to expand...
Yah but not only / actually attacks but strategy that's against Assad - policy looked like it was being made more or less around Assad, rather than ISIS. This has the parties more united than previously and Assad not as central to the picture. (And I'd say that's doubly the case in the minds of the public).
 
frogwoman said:
'organisation for combat and jihad' turn up to sell their magazine on a picket line

'yea mate I'll buy that what's it about'

'its about how under God's law your boss will be beheaded'

'er...actually I don't have any money' :(
Click to expand...

tumblr_m38ygelFM81qavb8jo1_500.gif
 
purves grundy said:
Has it been asked whether the choice of the Russian plane and attacks in Paris could have been made quite deliberately within ISIS, perhaps in order to paper over the split between Russia and the West so they would unite against them? Or at least so that each party would be drawn in against ISIS, whether united or not, rather than Assad or other groups?

It both fits the mentalist end-of-times irrational actor theory that you need to get your head around ISIS, and on a more mundane level expands destabilised domestic conditions across more of the world.
Click to expand...

purves grundy said:
Yah but not only / actually attacks but strategy that's against Assad - policy looked like it was being made more or less around Assad, rather than ISIS. This has the parties more united than previously and Assad not as central to the picture. (And I'd say that's doubly the case in the minds of the public).
Click to expand...
There hasn't been any assad plans for 3 years now. No one has has him their sights for ages.
 
agricola said:
A good start would not be to repeat the mistakes of the past; whether that is making token responses in order to make a political point (eg: plotting to take part in a bombing campaign that already has sixteen other nations, almost all of which have committed more force than we would), or acquiescing in events that destroy positive moves in the region (like the utter lack of fucks given when Morsi was kicked out and his supporters butchered, despite the clear electoral victories he obtained), or even the continual attempts to belittle diplomatic efforts, even though those same efforts have prevented at least once huge mistake (the failed bomb Assad campaign a few years ago) and are behind the emerging coalition against IS that we see today, as well as the lowering of tensions between the West and Iran. Some acknowledgement from the political class that Western policy in the region since the invasion of Afghanistan has been an unmitigated disaster, and legal consequences for those who were responsible, would not go amiss either.

Sadly having watched the Commons debate this afternoon, I think there is zero chance of any of that happening.
Click to expand...

All good sensible ideas. Better chance of Cameron giving everyone a free unicorn.
 
Given it's been left inside the stadium at least three hours before the game I'd expect it to be a false alarm.

Hope so, at least.
 
butchersapron said:
What bits do you agree with? And why not comment on hem on the thread ffs?
Click to expand...
I don't want to prejudge what others might get from reading it.

However, just to humour you, primarily I agree with one of his conclusions:
... The jihadists have another, more important, objective: to draw Western armies back to the Middle East.

Only then, will they be able to rally mainstream Arab support by portraying foreign troops as imperialists determined to occupy Muslim lands. Western governments will then be faced with the choice so concisely described by an al-Qaeda magazine headline in 2009: "Disastrous occupation or humiliating withdrawal?"
Click to expand...
 
Spymaster said:
That's not worth reading. Not sure why you posted it, tbh.
Click to expand...

It randomly came up in my Google news feed alert and I thought it was vaguely relevant to this thread's topic.

All grist to the discussion mill really.
 
weltweit said:
I don't want to prejudge what others might get from reading it.

However, just to humour you, primarily I agree with one of his conclusions:
Click to expand...
Saying what you agree with in an article is not prejudging anything.

Why on earth would you link to an article without posting any content then say you won't oh blah blah team time
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

tim
Explosion in Paris 21/6/23
Replies
8
Views
616
petee
petee
elbows
Bangladesh leader flees country after protests and many deaths
Replies
1
Views
358
JimW
JimW
TopCat
Paris burns after police murder youth
6 7 8 9 10
Replies
273
Views
12K
pbsmooth
P
danny la rouge
Paris shooting 23/12/22
Replies
9
Views
901
Pickman's model
Pickman's model
Bingoman
Terroist attack in Brussels 16th October 2023
Replies
19
Views
1K
Boris Sprinkler
Boris Sprinkler
Back
Top Bottom